blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z GEM cmc_total_precip_toronto_19.png Wow, gives the 4km NAM some credence. It'll be interesting to see what the HRRR/RAP say once this gets into their range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 They do but I'm graduating this Spring. We need a few more inches this winter to hit our seasonal average (allegedly 15-18") so all things considered this Nino hasn't been terrible here. Ahh, any plans for graduate school? That could be a wild card where you could end up somewhere snowier like Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Would be exciting to see the Toronto area to get buried by a LES plume. 12z GFS bringing back more snow for eastern WI. NAM shows NW IN/extreme SW MI getting hit pretty good as the low comes down the length of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Over/under for DTW set at 1.3" We will probably grind out a bit more than that but over the course of a few days, it won't really look nice doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Wow, gives the 4km NAM some credence. It'll be interesting to see what the HRRR/RAP say once this gets into their range. Agree. BTW, the downscaled 0z ECWMF WRF from wxbell(12km res) had a similar solution with a 1" QPF max over TO fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 BTW, the downscaled ECWMF WRF from wxbell(12km res) had a similar solution with a 1" max over TO. FWIW. I assume that's the 0z/6 run? NAM/GFS basically slot us after 0z Tuesday, hence their drier solutions. The juicier models are further south with the mid level low and allow that PVA enhanced area of precip to basically pivot over us. Can't really say one is more correct than the other...we'll just have to wait and see whether one camp trends towards the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I assume that's the 0z/6 run? NAM/GFS basically slot us after 0z Tuesday, hence their drier solutions. The juicier models are further south with the mid level low and allow that PVA enhanced area of precip to basically pivot over us. Can't really say one is more correct than the other...we'll just have to wait and see whether one camp trends towards the other. Yes that was the 0z run. The EPS members are completely split with the low track. Half are in the south camp and half look GFS-esque. As you said, well have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This is one of those times when living in the suburbs can definitely be a plus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z Euro not agreeing with the NAM/GFS. Big run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I would imagine the 18z 4km NAM will show higher amounts for Toronto. Wind flow looking good at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Sounding for Toronto at hour 60. 4km NAM Snow will want to come ashore in a band in a more SE direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z EC ecmwf_snow_72_toronto_21.png Knew it was going to come in hot (or at least not as crappy as the NAM/GFS) when I saw the SFC low around YXU at 72 rather than Lake Huron. 8" weenie band right along the 401. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Sounding for Toronto at hour 60. 4km NAM Snow will want to come ashore in a band in a more SE direction. Geos can never be accused of being ihby-centric. Don't think LES is going to be a huge factor though. Temps too warm. If this materializes it'll be a byproduct of well place synoptic lift and some upslope enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 What does this mean for downtown Toronto? I'm up here for a Super Bowl party and supposed to return to Newark, NJ Tuesday morning. I brought Torontonians my good snow luck last year's Super Bowl Sunday and hope to do the same this year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 There's a strong ridge over the western Atlantic/Newfoundland and as a result, the system will be a very slow mover. Plus, I wonder if Atlantic moisture will be thrown back to the west. If so, QPF amounts could be enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 What does this mean for downtown Toronto? I'm up here for a Super Bowl party and supposed to return to Newark, NJ Tuesday morning. I brought Torontonians my good snow luck last year's Super Bowl Sunday and hope to do the same this year as well. Ugh...could you have pulled that one north another 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 There's a strong ridge over the western Atlantic/Newfoundland and as a result, the system will be a very slow mover. Plus, I wonder if Atlantic moisture will be thrown back to the west. If so, QPF amounts could be enhanced. If you look at low-mid level RH maps, you can see the moisture connection with the W ATL system which bombs out across the gulf stream. Its not that important, but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Very fragile setup, many pieces in motion... could very end up with nothing, or could be our biggest snowfall of the season (not that it's saying much). In any case, even if we end up with nothing, it's kind of fun to track something for once in the believable range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 If you look at low-mid level RH maps, you can see the moisture connection with the W ATL system which bombs out across the gulf stream. Its not that important, but it's there. Thanks! Systems with an Atlantic connection for the GTA tend to perform well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Thanks! Systems with an Atlantic connection for the GTA tend to perform well. See December 11/2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 See December 11/2014. Yep. Looks like the 18z NAM might be drifting towards the EURO/GEM solution. H7 and sfc low have both nudged south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 See December 11/2014. Although there is every so slightly a bit of moisture transport from the Atlantic at the end, this is definitely nothing like the Dec 2014 event. That was an incredible example of moisture feeding, but a completely different synoptic environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Critical thickness on the NAM aren't great, at least earlier in the event. Hopefully the heavier precip rates at this time will help offset it. I think I'll do decent for surface temperatures being away from the lake and up on the escarpment. Preliminary call is 2-4" for MYB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Critical thickness on the NAM aren't great, at least earlier in the event. Hopefully the heavier precip rates at this time will help offset it. I think I'll do decent for surface temperatures being away from the lake and up on the escarpment. Preliminary call is 2-4" for MYB. My prelim is 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The flow on the 18z 4kNAM backs too quickly as the low slips from the UP to Erie, Pa. Convergence is focused along and just west of the escarpment. EDIT: The 18z RGEM also focuses the heavy returns W as the EC storm tracks further west. The EC storm track is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The flow on the 18z 4kNAM backs too quickly as the low slips from the UP to Erie, Pa. Convergence is focused along and just west of the escarpment. EDIT: The 18z RGEM also focuses the heavy returns W as the EC storm tracks further west. The EC storm track is important. So less snow now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 So less snow now? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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