Geos Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NAM has a nice solid band of snow with the cold front early on Monday. If you're awake, it might be fun to watch. Looks like a general 0.5"-3" event currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 4" of snow for here? Yeah I will take the under on that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 4" of snow for here? Yeah I will take the under on that right now.It could be one of those where it snows a few inches but you never have more than 1 or 2" on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It could be one of those where it snows a few inches but you never have more than 1 or 2" on the ground It would have to be colder, yesterday it was snowing like crazy with huge dendrites and we amounted to a whole dusting. If the temps were to be below 30 then I would say we end up with some accumulation but as it stands right now I am going to be highly skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It would have to be colder, yesterday it was snowing like crazy with huge dendrites and we amounted to a whole dusting. If the temps were to be below 30 then I would say we end up with some accumulation but as it stands right now I am going to be highly skeptical.If it's a steady snow I have no worries about daytime accumulation. Lot remains to be ironed out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 If it's a steady snow I have no worries about daytime accumulation. Lot remains to be ironed out though. It won't be steady snow though, not with this type of pattern. It screams cold pocket behind a low with showery snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It would have to be colder, yesterday it was snowing like crazy with huge dendrites and we amounted to a whole dusting. If the temps were to be below 30 then I would say we end up with some accumulation but as it stands right now I am going to be highly skeptical.Definitely not a great setup for many reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Definitely not a great setup for many reasonsYeah, I mean down wind of the lakes might catch some especially of Superior but even that doesn't look too spectacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yeah, I mean down wind of the lakes might catch some especially of Superior but even that doesn't look too spectacularI'll be happy to see flakes in the air for a few days at least. There's enough winter left and enough volatility in the extended models that I'm holding on for some hope going forward. It'll be nice when it's a Nina next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'll be happy to see flakes in the air for a few days at least. There's enough winter left and enough volatility in the extended models that I'm holding on for some hope going forward. It'll be nice when it's a Nina next winter Don't Ninas give S OH the shaft a lot of times though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Don't Ninas give S OH the shaft a lot of times though?They do but I'm graduating this Spring. We need a few more inches this winter to hit our seasonal average (allegedly 15-18") so all things considered this Nino hasn't been terrible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This one is as exciting as tracking my big dog slowly taking its last breath after last fridays 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looks like nuisance snows. Enough to make it look wintry, but minimal accumulations. Just enough to make the roads hazardous and the interstates around here (I 69 and I 65) to become skating rinks. Also looks to be squally, so some whiteout conditions possible. Instead of a big dog, we're looking at a chihuahua biting our ankles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It's looking like the C-1 36hr repeater is going to take shape much like its has modeled for the last few days now, While it is a nuisance type scenario the good thing is the GFS hasn't modified the track or intensity over the past 72 hrs. Stat padding for Josh, EZ make work project for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Instead of a big dog, we're looking at a chihuahua biting our ankles. At least the dog park is still open... Who knows, Marmaduke might want a play date with Gidget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 0z Euro has 0.6"+ QPF for the GTA from 0z Monday to 0z Thursday. The bullseye is over the city proper with ~0.7". Most of this falls when sfc temps are marginal. The EPS mean has ~0.4" QPF in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z 4 km NAM goes crazy with the QPF on Monday for the Greater Toronto Area. It spits out 0.50-0.75". Mix of rain/snow at start to all snow late in the day as colder air aloft moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z 4 km NAM goes crazy with the QPF on Monday for the Greater Toronto Area. It spits out 0.50-0.75". Mix of rain/snow at start to all snow late in the day as colder air aloft moves in.It's maxing out the DBZ scale on the sim radar products with a strong LE band that pivots through the GTA. Will need to see where the other mesos trend before making any conclusions.The overnight euro did hint at this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looking real good in the Sudbury area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It's maxing out the DBZ scale on the sim radar products with a strong LE band that pivots through the GTA. Will need to see where the other mesos trend before making any conclusions. The overnight euro did hint at this setup. It's an interesting setup. A small shift in the temps aloft in either direction will make a big difference in determining if we get a significant wet snow event or just a slushy inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Here's the snowfall map from the 4km NAM. Seems like getting away from Lk Ontario will do you a world of good. Congrats OB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It's an interesting setup. A small shift in the temps aloft in either direction will make a big difference in determining if we get a significant wet snow event or just a slushy inch or so. It won't take very much wet snow to cause power outage problems. NAM4k would be pretty nasty. QPF closeup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Checked out the soundings on BUFKIT for YYZ on both the NAM and GFS. The depth of the AOA freezing temps is not great, generally confined to below 950mb. At the sfc, NAM maxes the temp out at 2.0c, while the GFS is colder at 1.4c. Regardless, it would have to be coming down really hard for us to accumulate snow at those temps. Can't think of too many slush storms in the City's recent history. 4km NAM is colder than the OP NAM. I assume with the heavier precip it dynamically cools us more effectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This winter really is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Right now I'm calling for basically nothing through 0z Tuesday south of the 401. Maybe a slushy 1-2" north of the 401, with the potential for meaningful snow confined to areas north of Highway 7 up into the Oak Ridges. Hopefully the models are running too warm but that's the way I see it attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Right now I'm calling for basically nothing through 0z Tuesday south of the 401. Maybe a slushy 1-2" north of the 401, with the potential for meaningful snow confined to areas north of Highway 7 up into the Oak Ridges. Hopefully the models are running too warm but that's the way I see it attm. It's amazing that we're talking about the lake having an impact on lake shore communities in February. Usually we talk about this in November and December. Just goes to show what kind of dreadful winter this has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It's amazing that we're talking about the lake having an impact on lake shore communities in February. Usually we talk about this in November and December. Just goes to show what kind of dreadful winter this has been. toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 See what I said the other day about how this winter is trying to find ways to not snow at least here in the city. It's laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Right now I'm calling for basically nothing through 0z Tuesday south of the 401. Maybe a slushy 1-2" north of the 401, with the potential for meaningful snow confined to areas north of Highway 7 up into the Oak Ridges. Hopefully the models are running too warm but that's the way I see it attm. Its a tough forecast. Outside of the downtown core, Im thinking 1-3" through 0z tuesday. Sfc temps suck and peak omega is centred near 900mb(with temps just around -1c) so ratio's are going to be very low. At the same time, we may thump for a bit. Its still unclear as to how significant the band is going to be but if the mesos start trending towards the 4kNAM, higher amounts are possible IMO. Well see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Over/under for DTW set at 1.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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