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Feb 7-10th stalled out/meandering low pressure system potential.


dmc76

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I'll be honest, the HRRR has been crap this year. RAP is very hit and miss... but I'm not expecting any big shockers. Still hoping my 1-3" call pans out.

 

It'll be nice to see how long this lake effect band stays right over the city. Impressive gusts happening right now.

 

I'm happy to have something. Plus, it's a pretty cool synoptic setup!

 

Yeah, it's fun just to be able to track something again. Plus this storm has all sorts of cool meso-scale features in play.

 

I think my 2-4" call is in trouble, especially the higher end. The only thing that might save me is that it's a storm total call so it'll include what falls tomorrow night.

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Thanks for the input Mike.   Would be different to see something more than a couple inches at a time.   Those Cdn folks looking for snow should be moving to NS.   My cousin in Sydney NS is looking at a blizzard currently.   Must be the 5th winter storm at least since Jan.  And this winter has been mild compared to the last 2 years...............  They get some absolute brutes in the Maritimes.

 

They are unsurpassed snow kings (I guess outside of the Rockies/Coastal Mountains)...but I could never adjust to their folksy Celtic culture.

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My background is part Scottish so I'm always looking to save money and see how far my dollar can get me.

 

I'm 4th or 5th generation Canadian at least, so the Scottish is very diluted,  but I'm always looking for a deal as well.   I guess they call frugality 'being Scotch' for a reason.

 

and now back to the weather   (as boring as it is....)

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I wonder if ILN or RLX are close to pulling the warning trigger for that mesoscale band in southern OH. We're just starting to get into it here, instantaneous rates have easily been an inch per hour at times with quarter to golf ball sized aggregates falling. Not sure if the best of the banding stays jussst to my north or not looking at radar, RAP and HRRR look pretty locked and loaded. A very deep layer of steep lapse rates and a nice band of forcing FTW here or close to here it looks like.

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I wonder if ILN or RLX are close to pulling the warning trigger for that mesoscale band in southern OH. We're just starting to get into it here, instantaneous rates have easily been an inch per hour at times with quarter to golf ball sized aggregates falling. Not sure if the best of the banding stays jussst to my north or not looking at radar, RAP and HRRR look pretty locked and loaded. A very deep layer of steep lapse rates and a nice band of forcing FTW here or close to here it looks like.

I'm surprised that ILN hasn't added Montgomery and Greene to the WWA. I'm on the east side of Dayton and sitting at 2.5" and still snowing. 3" seems likely which is the threshold here for a WWA.

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ILN finally pulls the trigger on a WWA for Dayton area and WSW for areas of the se CWA.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1040 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

OHZ063>065-072>074-080-082-091145-
/O.UPG.KILN.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-160210T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KILN.WS.W.0002.160209T0340Z-160209T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0006.160209T1700Z-160210T1100Z/
FAYETTE-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HIGHLAND-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JEFFERSONVILLE...BLOOMINGBURG...
CIRCLEVILLE...LANCASTER...PICKERINGTON...WILMINGTON...
BLANCHESTER...CHILLICOTHE...LOGAN...HILLSBORO...GREENFIELD...
PIKETON
1040 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TUESDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON
TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
  MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
  MIDDAY TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE
  THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
  REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF INFORMATION FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN AS WELL AS ON OUR FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.

&&

$$

INZ058-059-OHZ053-054-060>062-091145-
/O.EXA.KILN.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-160210T1100Z/
FAYETTE-UNION-CLARK-MADISON-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...SPRINGFIELD...
LONDON...JEFFERSON...PLAIN CITY...EATON...CAMDEN...DAYTON...
KETTERING...BEAVERCREEK...FAIRBORN...XENIA
1040 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
  TUESDAY MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. OCCASIONAL
  SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
  ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED
  VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS
OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE
SOURCE OF INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN AS WELL AS ON OUR
FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.

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Welcome to the synoptic wintertime disappointment that's London.  Hours of precip. and it's cold rain.    It's usually LES or bust around here.   What do you make of the squall potential the next couple days?    EC finally mentioned a couple periods for LES, but the Buffalo WRF that I looked at showed the best activity both west and east at various times.   Not much in the city.      

 

Same here! Snowing in all flippin directions....Yawn.

I'm Italian. I need a constant stream of yelling and swearing.

 

Lol! I've got the Pennsylvania Irish in me, so I love to laugh, but don't tick me off! :P

 

On the scoreboard here....0.1". So no shutout for this area. :lol:

Snow is a lot more west then modeled. Looks to over achieve overnight for much of eastern southern lower.

 

Same here. Misery loves company.

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Haven't had accumulating snow from this event since early this morning when we received our 0.2".  Had off and on flurries during the day and evening, but now we should get one last bout of accumulating snow with this final band about to move through.  Could get another 0.1-0.2" out of it.  Sure hope the road crews are ready to tackle this beast or it's gonna be one hell of a tough commute in the morning.

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