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Feb 7-10th stalled out/meandering low pressure system potential.


dmc76

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Not doing anything but turd polishing here, but the steep low level lapse rates and a pretty saturated column through the DGZ give sme hope for some heavy snow showers popping up across all of SEMI tomorrow and Wednesday. Always cool to see convective clouds in mid-winter.

 

But as I said...turd polishing.

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The only storm name that stuck with me is Jonas - the east coast blizzard. It was repeated in the media so much that was hard to forget.

 

That band coming down into Milwaukee has 30 dbz+ pockets in it. Hope it holds together.

 

Edit: Under solid -SN right now.

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Squall moved through with +SN about an hour ago under modest radar returns. Right now the inversion height is near 925mb. Ceilings are very low and as a result, the radar wont be the best indicator of SN rates this evening.

 

After midnight, LL lapse rates will become much steeper as the inversion rises. This may be an opportunity for an LE band to form(like the RGEM is showing). The HRRR/NAM have no band.

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Not doing anything but turd polishing here, but the steep low level lapse rates and a pretty saturated column through the DGZ give sme hope for some heavy snow showers popping up across all of SEMI tomorrow and Wednesday. Always cool to see convective clouds in mid-winter.

 

But as I said...turd polishing.

 

Yeah, I mentioned earlier today that there were some pretty sweet cumulonimbus clouds. Looked like summer skies. Cell popped up about 15 miles to the east in Ravenna. Looks like it dropped a couple inches in a couple hours, from looking at the webcam. Looks like some of the band might be dropping in on me. Hopefully. While it was occurring there in between, it was 40 degrees in Grand Rapids and mid-upper 30s here.

 

http://legacy.weather.weatherbug.com/weather-safety/online-weather-center/Camera/Camera.aspx?stat=RVNNR&camera=RVNNR

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Squall moved through with +SN about an hour ago under modest radar returns. Right now the inversion height is near 925mb. Ceilings are very low and as a result, the radar wont be the best indicator of SN rates this evening.

 

After midnight, LL lapse rates will become much steeper as the inversion rises. This may be an opportunity for an LE band to form(like the RGEM is showing). The HRRR/NAM have no band.

 

Hrrr may have the band but it's well north of the RGEM. Seems to focus it along the north shore of Lk Ontario. At least that's what I can tell from its simulated radar.

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Not doing anything but turd polishing here, but the steep low level lapse rates and a pretty saturated column through the DGZ give sme hope for some heavy snow showers popping up across all of SEMI tomorrow and Wednesday. Always cool to see convective clouds in mid-winter.

 

But as I said...turd polishing.

 

Not turd polishing at all.

 

I love seeing what you described in the Winter, personally.

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Hrrr may have the band but it's well north of the RGEM. Seems to focus it along the north shore of Lk Ontario. At least that's what I can tell from its simulated radar.

 

The most recent run actually has the band. The previous run, as you mentioned, focused the action along the N shore. This occurs as the front lifts north pretty quickly and the wind shifts to the SSW. The 21z run veers the winds much slower, so the band can form once the inversion rises.

 

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Just got home from work about 45 minutes ago. Nothing at my place yet. Wondering if this will be a bust? Still hoping for 2".

 

Should slowly start to see the snow redevelop after the little lull you've had. I'm wondering if the bigger potential for accumulations is tomorrow night when the mid level centre moves through. Models are of little use so it's a real tough forecast.

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Finally switched to snow here in London. Coating on the grass.

 

Welcome to the synoptic wintertime disappointment that's London.  Hours of precip. and it's cold rain.    It's usually LES or bust around here.   What do you make of the squall potential the next couple days?    EC finally mentioned a couple periods for LES, but the Buffalo WRF that I looked at showed the best activity both west and east at various times.   Not much in the city.      

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Welcome to the synoptic wintertime disappointment that's London.  Hours of precip. and it's cold rain.    It's usually LES or bust around here.   What do you make of the squall potential the next couple days?    EC finally mentioned a couple periods for LES, but the Buffalo WRF that I looked at showed the best activity both west and east at various times.   Not much in the city.      

 

Yeah, today was kind of disappointing. There was the potential for a thick heavy snow but temps were just a bit too warm.

 

The squall risk is really concentrated in the Wednesday night and Thursday timeframe. A little out of the range of the hi res models so I wouldn't worry about the particulars at this point. I think the one thing that can be said about the potential is that it won't be a massive 2' storm or anything because the winds will back ahead of the next clipper.

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gl tonight. Radar over the west end of Lk Ontario seems to be filling in but each run of the HRRR/RAP seem to show less and less. 

 

I'll be honest, the HRRR has been crap this year. RAP is very hit and miss... but I'm not expecting any big shockers. Still hoping my 1-3" call pans out.

 

It'll be nice to see how long this lake effect band stays right over the city. Impressive gusts happening right now.

 

I'm happy to have something. Plus, it's a pretty cool synoptic setup!

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Yeah, today was kind of disappointing. There was the potential for a thick heavy snow but temps were just a bit too warm.

 

The squall risk is really concentrated in the Wednesday night and Thursday timeframe. A little out of the range of the hi res models so I wouldn't worry about the particulars at this point. I think the one thing that can be said about the potential is that it won't be a massive 2' storm or anything because the winds will back ahead of the next clipper.

 

Thanks for the input Mike.   Would be different to see something more than a couple inches at a time.   Those Cdn folks looking for snow should be moving to NS.   My cousin in Sydney NS is looking at a blizzard currently.   Must be the 5th winter storm at least since Jan.  And this winter has been mild compared to the last 2 years...............  They get some absolute brutes in the Maritimes.

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