dmc76 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z showing some decent snows around the lakes and I believe it's worth a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 100% Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 DAB-1" IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Well the 18Z GFS took away pretty much all the lake effect snow from this up to Tuesday.............. Winter 2016: Expect the least amount of snow and the worst-case scenario for snow... Edit: It has most of the synoptic snow missing us to the north and east too, because the low is farther up that way. so shocked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Wind shear/low inversion heights could make this a dud but the sfc wind/precip field on the GFS looks interesting. Long period of easterly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 As the low approaches from the NW, the profile does take a more favourable turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 As the low approaches from the NW, the profile does take a more favourable turn. 18_GFS_090_43.63,-79.21_severe_ml.png 18_GFS_102_43.82,-79.32_severe_ml.png Think our best chance for LES/LenhS is early on in the event (say Sunday night into Monday morning). Could have sufficient delta-t's at around 900mb to support a single band. Moisture looks good, and with LES that shallow I don't think shear should be too much of a problem. And even if the LES doesn't pan out, it's like 36-48 hours of moist easterly upslope flow. 18z GFS is showing a long duration 0.50-0.75" of QPF. It's a very intriguing setup. I'm gonna call it now...not sure exactly where yet but I think someone ends up with a 3 day total of a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 DAB-1" IMBY. We will muster up a couple inches at minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Think our best chance for LES/LenhS is early on in the event (say Sunday night into Monday morning). Could have sufficient delta-t's at around 900mb to support a single band. Moisture looks good, and with LES that shallow I don't think shear should be too much of a problem. And even if the LES doesn't pan out, it's like 36-48 hours of moist easterly upslope flow. 18z GFS is showing a long duration 0.50-0.75" of QPF. It's a very intriguing setup. I'm gonna call it now...not sure exactly where yet but I think someone ends up with a 3 day total of a foot of snow. These mesoscale events tend to over perform as the globals can have a tough time picking up on QPF output. Last weeks system and the 4" clipper show how a favourable flow can really produce around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 We will muster up a couple inches at minimum Maybe in the hills of Oakland County, but not down this way. It snowed all day today with huge flakes and none of it stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 These mesoscale events tend to over perform as the globals can have a tough time picking up on QPF output. Last weeks system and the 4" clipper show how a favourable flow can really produce around here. Don't want that lead coastal system deepening rapidly. It could force the ul further south which would shunt the best dynamics to our SW plus make the flow more NEly, reducing the lake's input. That's my main concern at this point. However, so far, aside from a rogue run here and there, models haven't been too eager to show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Don't want that lead coastal system deepening rapidly. It could force the ul further south which would shunt the best dynamics to our SW plus make the flow more NEly, reducing the lake's input. That's my main concern at this point. However, so far, aside from a rogue run here and there, models haven't been too eager to show that. The Euro/GFS/CMC all have a similar track with the southern low ATM(from VA/NC to off the Delmarva and up the coast). The Euro does differ from the other two when it comes to the track of the northern stream low. It stalls the LP centre further north across N lower MI while the GFS allows it to sink further south before stalling... resulting in a much more favourable setup. The EPS are in the middle right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I definitely think the potential is there to lay down a light snow cover over the entire sub forum. Where the heaviest will be a real guessing game at this point. 18z GFS. Further west you go the colder it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Maybe in the hills of Oakland County, but not down this way. It snowed all day today with huge flakes and none of it stuck. Temp profiles will be an issue. Forecast highs is 37 Monday arguably the best day for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Hoping to get some wind-blown snow showers, and perhaps some squall action on Monday on the back side of this thing. Don't think we'll see much accumulation overall, but this system has the potential to at least make it look wintry out there for a day. EDIT: Euro says no, just a few flurries perhaps on Monday. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 DAB-1" IMBY. I have picked up almost 2 inches over the past 24 hours from a far worse setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Maybe in the hills of Oakland County, but not down this way. It snowed all day today with huge flakes and none of it stuck. Wow... Amazing what 300+ feet can do. I probably have an inch and a half. We had accumulation on some paved surfaces too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I have picked up almost 2 inches over the past 24 hours from a far worse setup. In my backyard, not yours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 In my backyard, not yours... There you go Jonger. Corroboration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Its definitely an interesting set up on the models. And it's definitely different than lake effect snow showers. Didn't we have something similar in Feb 2010? Definitely worth keeping an eye on...but still far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Don't want that lead coastal system deepening rapidly. It could force the ul further south which would shunt the best dynamics to our SW plus make the flow more NEly, reducing the lake's input. That's my main concern at this point. However, so far, aside from a rogue run here and there, models haven't been too eager to show that. How would 850mb temps be like? Would they support LES? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Tempatures are marginal on Monday for the majority of SeMI. 36-38 degree highs. The good news is that will help in keeping roads clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Tempatures are marginal on Monday for the majority of SeMI. 36-38 degree highs. The good news is that will help in keeping roads clear. IWX and most of the offices think this will happen Monday night- Wed. Remember: The models always have a hard time with LES and LES setups. It showed me getting 7 inches of LES earlier, now 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 How would 850mb temps be like? Would they support LES? 850s dont look that good but the hope is that the LES forms shallower. Could get delta t's around 12 or 13 between 900-925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 850s dont look that good but the hope is that the LES forms shallower. Could get delta t's around 12 or 13 between 900-925mb. Has that setup worked before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Has that setup worked before? Sure. East wind LES is notorious for being shallow. Arctic highs over Quebec tend to feed their coldest air in between the surface and 900mb. Shallow setups like this aren't going to be prolific snow producers but they can top up amounts in addition to the synoptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 H5 setup is sort of similar to December 29-30, 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 H5 setup is sort of similar to December 29-30, 2000. 0z GFS trends wetter. ~30hrs of upslope flow in some shape or form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 H5 setup is sort of similar to December 29-30, 2000. Yes very similar. Did anything happen then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 0z GFS trends wetter. ~30hrs of upslope flow in some shape or form. Yeah...but I'm noticing the trend of not having that arctic front actually pass us. Now it seems to get hung up across the Nickel Belt. So we really don't tap any of the cold air over Quebec. Gonna be tough to get LES without that airmass in play...but the synoptic/upsloping potential could easily make up for it. edit: ugh...forget about LES. looking at the GFS sfc temps, we bet hope we don't flip to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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