WeSuck Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 What is the timing for this again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 15z SREFs ticked much better IMO (using 24 hr QPF) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_024_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160204+15+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area 0.25" QPF line is just west of I-95 ETA: high risk made a better post below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 15z SREF mean trended much wetter for DC metro. 0.5" line runs from east side of Baltimore to Annapolis to close to Andrews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 15z SREF mean trended much wetter for DC metro. 0.5" line runs from east side of Baltimore to Annapolis to close to Andrews. Will we have to wait for the plumes to see what members trended wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 215 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 MDZ017-018-050315- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0004.160205T0500Z-160205T1500Z/ ST. MARYS-CALVERT- 215 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. * HAZARD TYPES...ACCUMULATING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I plotted them, and it's actually a nice distribution of hits within the two cores. That's what I would expect, as the biases can't really kick in during a day 1 forecast. Will we have to wait for the plumes to see what members trended wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Will we have to wait for the plumes to see what members trended wetter? that's easy....the weenie ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I plotted them, and it's actually a nice distribution of hits within the two cores. That's what I would expect, as the biases can't really kick in during a day 1 forecast. thank youuuu! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Mitch I guess it doesn't mean much but the SREF is actually a nice little hit for you and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Mitch I guess it doesn't mean much but the SREF is actually a nice little hit for you and I. LOL..........if the SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES aren't good for an event within 18 hours, why the hell is money being spent to run them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Mitch I guess it doesn't mean much but the SREF is actually a nice little hit for you and I. Yep. I said in the Feb mid/long range thread that this event had a high fluke potential because of the proximity of the heavy precip. Now you've gotta wonder if it ticks further east come 0Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yep. I said in the Feb mid/long range thread that this event had a high fluke potential because of the proximity of the heavy precip. Now you've gotta wonder if it ticks further east west come 0Z... FYP Going to be a nail biter for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 FYP Going to be a nail biter for sure... oooops rookie weenie mistake lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Parent 18z NAM looks decent (0.1 QPF line) just east of I-95 at 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 SREF plume mean is 1.9" at DCA, 2.3" at BWI, 1.2" at IAD, and 2.1" at Salisbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 VDOT has been pretreating the roads in the Fairfax area since this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 AKQ goes with WWAs for the Eastern Shore: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA318 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016MDZ021>025-050430-/O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0003.160205T0500Z-160205T1800Z/DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...SALISBURY...CRISFIELD...PRINCESS ANNE...SNOW HILL...OCEAN CITY318 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO1 PM EST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY.* AREAS AFFECTED: THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE* HAZARDS: RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW AFTERMIDNIGHT. THE WET SNOW WILL END AROUND NOON FRIDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 3 INCHES....HIGHEST OVER DORCHESTER ANDWICOMICO COUNTIES.* TEMPERATURES: FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S.* WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT THECOAST.* IMPACTS: ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY DUE TO THE WET SNOW.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOWWILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.&&$44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 18z HIRES looks decent as well... I think? TT radar composite looks okay for a period of snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 LWX afternoon disco LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AT THE OUTER BANKS AND THEENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD. THISWILL ENHANCE LIFT AND MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CAA WILL CONTINUEOVERNIGHT AND THE REGION SHOULD BE BELOW 0 AT 850MB BY 6Z. AT THESFC...TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S/30S OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILLBE ONGOING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN MD REGION HOWEVER AS THE LOWDEEPENS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER WEST WHEREIT WILL BE COLDER. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THEREGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...HEAVIER PRECIPITATIONIS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW AND RAIN WILL TRANSITION TOSNOW BETWEEN 6-10Z. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH 2-3 INCHESACROSS SOUTHERN MD TO LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC223 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-051530-CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTHISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-223 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHTA PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLYEAST OF INTERSTATE 95. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORCALVERT AND ST. MARY`S COUNTIES...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDEDFURTHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 this is why this has the potential to be surprisingly sweet not that I'm saying it will, but it's sooooo close http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12®ion=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 RGEM "should" look good at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 this is why this has the potential to be surprisingly sweet not that I'm saying it will, but it's sooooo close http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12®ion=us That is a nice look. RAP is most bullish, but hrrr not so much. RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 RGEM definitely beefier than 12z, but still in the 1-2" range around BWI and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 happy hour 18z GFS does not disappoint At least QPF-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 20z HRRR has 2-3 much of 95 from DC to Balt. These events can be fun. We seem to luck out in them more than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 As we've seen, it doesn't take much to create a commuting disaster around here. Secondary roads in Fairfax County coated in beet juice. No surprises! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 20z HRRR has 2-3 much of 95 from DC to Balt. These events can be fun. We seem to luck out in them more than others. Looks like 20z HRRR switches over around midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 20z RAP looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Really hoping the RAP/HRRR/NAM/GFS/RGEM aren't overplaying their hand here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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