nj2va Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Favor eastern areas of our subforum but maybe last minute nudge NW will get more of the area in on some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Couple inches per GFS... Euro has 4" for parts of the lower eastern shore. Not much, if anything, west of the bay, at least north of Southern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 RAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 NAM bullseye the Eastern Shore/Delaware with 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 the west kick is real http://www.txtornado.net/NAM/new_slp_nam_all_12.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z NAM looks like a quick burst of snow after the changeover. Probably 2-3 inches eastern shore more towards the coast if temps cooperate there. Still seems this could trend west a bit more, but its not going to hang around long, so best case is a quick hitting burst of moderate/heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Waiting on the 09z SREF plumes... but 09z SREFs were indeed interesting ... but don't know yet if there are members making the mean higher than it should be. 0.25" QPF mean line straddles teh I-95 corridor/just east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 6z RGEM seems the most bullish with 3-5 inches lower and central eastern shore and DE. Tricky deal as low level temps are an issue. These types of set ups are prone to fail as its not a long duration event. The colder/drier air moving in, and higher precip rates on the western edge of the low must coincide for a few hours to get accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Good luck to our eastern folks. DC could be in position for at least some SnowTV tomorrow. We need back building I am hoping this works out for the lower shore and southern DE folks, who really missed out on the big storm. I still want my inch here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 keep an eye on this link today http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20160204&endTime=-1&duration=4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 09z SREF Plumes still not out yet, which is weird, but anyway... 03z SREF plume at NHK was pretty nice to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 09z SREF Plumes still not out yet, which is weird, but anyway... 03z SREF plume at NHK was pretty nice to look at 3z snow plume mean for ILG was 2, and 2.5 for DOV and GED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm going for false alarm unless you live at/near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I would say a 40% chance of a Cartopper for the Metro's. SBY to Dover could get 2" maybe. Also does NAM/RAP/HRRR VERY BAD temperature forecasts inside 6 hours (due to snowcover) effect anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Not expecting anything at all west of the bay unless you're way down in southern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z RGEM looks decent - http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/592_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z RGEM looks decent - http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/592_100.gif looks warm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Sure does, impossible to tell on those maps but it looks like the 5mm line is close to DC metro. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=000&map=na〈=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Hrs 15-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 looks warm though 850s are fine... checking surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=000&map=na〈=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Hrs 15-24 I think I was looking at an old run or something when I initially clicked the link, looks different now and 5mm is not near DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 looks warm though Looks about the same as 6z per TT. Bulls eye of 4" (for the MA) is from Richmond up to maybe Cambridge. Has about 3 from SBY to DOV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I think I was looking at an old run or something when I initially clicked the link, looks different now and 5mm is not near DC. It is near DC... DCA is 7mm on the meteogram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 850s are fine... checking surface look at the link you posted....winter precip it shows it starts as rain, then a 3 hour panel of mixed, then the last panel is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 GFS throws back a lot more light precip, but it starts warm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 and then it's out on the gfs....nnnnnnnnnnnnext Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 GFS throws back a lot more light precip, but it starts warm too The warmth is a given. Its a matter of how much heavy precip gets in and how long it takes the dynamical cooling to do its work. Pretty short window, and thus a high bust potential, if a minor sneaky event like this can even have a bust lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z GFS says nada until you get to central DE. An inch for DOV then 2-3" as you go north up the coast into NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The warmth is a given. Its a matter of how much heavy precip gets in and how long it takes the dynamical cooling to do its work. Pretty short window, and thus a high bust potential, if a minor sneaky event like this can even have a bust lol. not too unexpectedly, as the models get wetter, they get warmer and, as you say, with such a brief window of opportunity, everything must go perfect for something more than snowtv nonetheless, it's one of those situations that have a huge upside bust potential (can't go very far low side bust, so we've got that going for us lol) simply because the heavy precip is lurking so close to our east, but that's not to say it is more likely to bust, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Hell yeah. I need to keep padding. Besides, this could be our only snow this month if you believe some of the talk in the LR thread Euro weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 9z SREF snow plumes look almost identical to 3z for places east of the bay. For BWI and DCA, the mean ticked up from less than 0.5" to very close to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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