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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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Ggem and gfs show decent snowstorm for entire area early next week

 

There's a lot of GFS ensembles showing big hits, and the UKMET looks very good as well. Euro was pretty lame last night and appears to be the last holdout on the big storm idea. Hopefully the jump NW isn't the start of a trend towards a GLC though.

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KBUF isn't saying too much about the potential synoptic...

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

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RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
335 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NYZ010-011-120445-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0007.160212T0900Z-160213T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.W.0006.160212T0900Z-160213T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0001.160213T0900Z-160214T1600Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
335 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
GENESEE COUNTIES. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH LATE TONIGHT...5 TO 10 INCHES
FRIDAY...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM
TOTALS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ZERO TO 5
ABOVE SATURDAY. LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 30 BELOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

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Not going to happen!

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I think this event tomorrow for BUF is a race against the clock.  The clock being the arctic front.  This is some serious cold air out in advance of the  front, which is usually good for a very intense band to form as the flow veers to SW before the frontal passage.  I just have my doubts that we get a nice band to form more than a couple hours before the approach.  Of course, all we need is a couple hours of rippage to get to the low end of the warning...

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I think this event tomorrow for BUF is a race against the clock.  The clock being the arctic front.  This is some serious cold air out in advance of the  front, which is usually good for a very intense band to form as the flow veers to SW before the frontal passage.  I just have my doubts that we get a nice band to form more than a couple hours before the approach.  Of course, all we need is a couple hours of rippage to get to the low end of the warning...

 

We have about 12 hour window from 5am-5pm to get things going only question is if that band locks in one place but looking at the high res 4km it favors a steady 245 flow just before the arctic front arrival and that's the best time to get those 2-3"/hr rates..

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We have about 12 hour window from 5am-5pm to get things going only question is if that band locks in one place but looking at the high res 4km it favors a steady 245 flow just before the arctic front arrival and that's the best time to get those 2-3"/hr rates..

I'll take a nice leisurely pivot from Hamburg to Tonawanda during that time - if that works for you and Rich...

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FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFT
THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS IT
RETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTAL
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

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