ayuud11 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z GFS destroys NNY into Vermont, easy 2-3'!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Going to be very close if there is enough cold air. It's a warm cutting system. Very small area will receive the snow. Low margin of error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Ggem and gfs show decent snowstorm for entire area early next week There's a lot of GFS ensembles showing big hits, and the UKMET looks very good as well. Euro was pretty lame last night and appears to be the last holdout on the big storm idea. Hopefully the jump NW isn't the start of a trend towards a GLC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Just saw the latest 12z NWP output for next week. Be careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Canadian has 12-20" across upstate!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 CMC verbatim has a catastrophic ice storm for the State College-Binghamton axis (1-1.5"), but the rain might be too heavy for the modeled ice accretions to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro looks CMC-ish. Snow-ice-snow, maybe some rain even. Hard to tell with the 24-hour increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro looks CMC-ish. Snow-ice-snow, maybe some rain even. Hard to tell with the 24-hour increments. Rain anywhere east of BUF. Tries to take a primary into OH before transfering to MD and then tracking through Syracuse. Suspicious of the big jump in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Rain anywhere east of BUF. Tries to take a primary into OH before transfering to MD and then tracking through Syracuse. Suspicious of the big jump in one run. Yeah, hard to trust the Euro until it starts showing some consistency. The potential is huge though. Every model is showing a ton of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Damm that's one odd run on the euro but it still nails BUF out to YYZ, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yeah, hard to trust the Euro until it starts showing some consistency. The potential is huge though. Every model is showing a ton of moisture..The euro has shown a consistent apps cutter for the last week. It's only varied slightly over New York State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Gefs are pretty amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Gefs are pretty amped Awfully similar to the Canadian ensembles will be interesting to see if the EPS agrees,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 . The euro has shown a consistent apps cutter for the last week. It's only varied slightly over New York State. Was it not just well east of the area a run or two ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Was it not just well east of the area a run or two ago? Last night the Euro was east and weak, IIRC. The Para GFS and JMA are also east, all snow and good precip amounts for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro is about the best case scenario for buf. Snow to heavy rain to heavy snow. Monster atlantic ridge and low pressure to the northwest makes this a real thead the needle type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro is about the best case scenario for buf. Snow to heavy rain to heavy snow. Monster atlantic ridge and low pressure to the northwest makes this a real thead the needle type deal.. Yeah not getting excited until it's a day away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Finished with 17" here in fulton..Not sure about the report of 24" in fulton but i guess it's possible ..Nice event overall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I shouldn't say "finished" as it is still snowing, albeit light.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It seemed like these images (with 2-3 day storm totals) missed something... like for example, any values between 1 and 37" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 KBUF isn't saying too much about the potential synoptic... .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEKWITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCEPOPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKEONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGSFOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I love that 18-24" strip over BUF!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I love that 18-24" strip over BUF!! Not going to happen! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY335 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016NYZ010-011-120445-/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0007.160212T0900Z-160213T0000Z//O.EXB.KBUF.LE.W.0006.160212T0900Z-160213T0300Z//O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0001.160213T0900Z-160214T1600Z/NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA335 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM ESTFRIDAY......WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHTTHROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY.THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.* TIMING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LATETONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERNGENESEE COUNTIES. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATEFRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH LATE TONIGHT...5 TO 10 INCHESFRIDAY...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORMTOTALS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH LATE FRIDAYAND FRIDAY NIGHT.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ZERO TO 5ABOVE SATURDAY. LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT.* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 30 BELOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ANDSATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Not going to happen! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I think this event tomorrow for BUF is a race against the clock. The clock being the arctic front. This is some serious cold air out in advance of the front, which is usually good for a very intense band to form as the flow veers to SW before the frontal passage. I just have my doubts that we get a nice band to form more than a couple hours before the approach. Of course, all we need is a couple hours of rippage to get to the low end of the warning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I think this event tomorrow for BUF is a race against the clock. The clock being the arctic front. This is some serious cold air out in advance of the front, which is usually good for a very intense band to form as the flow veers to SW before the frontal passage. I just have my doubts that we get a nice band to form more than a couple hours before the approach. Of course, all we need is a couple hours of rippage to get to the low end of the warning... We have about 12 hour window from 5am-5pm to get things going only question is if that band locks in one place but looking at the high res 4km it favors a steady 245 flow just before the arctic front arrival and that's the best time to get those 2-3"/hr rates.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 We have about 12 hour window from 5am-5pm to get things going only question is if that band locks in one place but looking at the high res 4km it favors a steady 245 flow just before the arctic front arrival and that's the best time to get those 2-3"/hr rates.. I'll take a nice leisurely pivot from Hamburg to Tonawanda during that time - if that works for you and Rich... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If it snowed like this the rest of the day we probably pick up a few more inches..I'ts that light but steady snow that slowly accumulates throughout the day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEADOF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOMESOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE ANDONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFTTHROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OFTHE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THEUNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDSOF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH ORTWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THEORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTSTO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALEMODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OFTHE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEYWILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTHWITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARAFRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THESOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS ITRETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTICFRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKEEFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTALNORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THEBUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIOAROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARMINTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z gfs please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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