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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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This is a fun band. Two other met students reported 3"/hr in the actual town. I'm on the lakeshore which has less but about a mile inland there's more. Really heavy snow with the occasional lull, but several inches on the ground. 

 

Yeah that band is cranking. I bet some spots are well over a foot between Fulton and Oswego.

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Redfield/Osceola area cashing in big time I bet.  Extra lift on the southern Tug = smackdown.  

 

http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm 

 

That link does not work for some reason. "Page cannot be found"

 

Oswego has been getting destroyed for hours. If it stalls for a decent period of time we will be talking feet of snow there.

 

 

mobile_weather1.jpg

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All but far NW Monroe county is gonna have a tough time getting close to warning amounts. Band refusing to settle south. Snow drought for Kroc continues

 

Yup...that snow totals map that BUF puts out is so not accurate...18-24 for N. Monroe? Really? The same thing will happen the last time they put a LES Warning out...very little until that arctic front comes through...then no official warning and 8" of tea kettle...lol

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

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The band is starting to, slowly settle South, with the wind shift but once that happens, band weakens considerably and becomes fractured throughout so where these totals are coming form is beyond me, I've lived here 13yrs, so I'd say experience is a bit on my side, as far as event recognition, but I can definitely be wrong and probably will be, lol!.  Hope all get buried but these LES forecasts, I take with a beach full of sand!!

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Yup...that snow totals map that BUF puts out is so not accurate...18-24 for N. Monroe? Really? The same thing will happen the last time they put a LES Warning out...very little until that arctic front comes through...then no official warning and 8" of tea kettle...lol

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

I'll say it until I'm blue. South shore just can't be fcst. That 12" that fell in far northern Orleans wasn't fcst until it was half over. Now with 12-18 in north monroe with little support.
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Those totals are through early Friday AM. A bit premature to be calling a blown forecast?

True. Just seems very heavy handed for Monroe county. Can't even recall a les storm on a wnw wind that gave us totals like that. It would be outside of parameters. I like Saturday-Sunday with light NNW wind field. Dry air be damned.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Look out Fulton as you'll be under the gun for quite a while before it sweeps through and settles down through the Syracuse area and points South for the remainder of this event.

No so fast with the "sweeps" comment....with a Geo Bay connection, and a gentle shift in the mean wind through the profile, there very well may remain an intact band into or JUST to the north of the SYR area for a period of 5-10 hours....this is NOT a case where the flow veers rapidly nor sharply....

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Tomorrow is a sneaky day. Models don't like to pick up on NW flow well, and the RGEM (which has done very well) has a pretty good swath of 0.2-0.4" of QPF. There will be a shallow DGZ but it's not all that bad of a setup with a potential for a Georgian Bay connection. 

 

Don't underestimate Friday either. 

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I had to do a double take, that KBUF map is way overdone for eastern Lake Ontario area...except for maybe a narrow swath in Oswego county where there's probably a foot already from the existing band. The KBGM map looks more reasonable for the area and probably the lower end of ranges will be pretty close, based on past performance anyway.

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LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
PERRYSBURG 10.0 830 PM 2/10 COOP OBSERVER

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
1 N SHERMAN 9.0 130 PM 2/10 PUBLIC

...ERIE COUNTY...
EAST AURORA 8.0 615 PM 2/10 SNOW SPOTTER
HAMBURG 4.0 630 PM 2/10 SOCIAL MEDIA

...NIAGARA COUNTY...
BARKER 7.0 320 PM 2/10 LAW ENFORCEMENT
OLCOTT 7.0 130 PM 2/10 BROADCAST MEDIA
WILSON 4.5 118 PM 2/10 PARK SERVICE

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
POINT BREEZE 8.0 310 PM 2/10 TRAINED SPOTTER
LYNDONVILLE 7.0 312 PM 2/10 TRAINED SPOTTER
WATERPORT 4.0 100 PM 2/10 PUBLIC

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
MINETTO 21.0 1030 PM 2/10 COCORAHS
HASTINGS 16.0 845 PM 2/10 SOCIAL MEDIA
1 N HASTINGS 15.0 920 PM 2/10 SNOW SPOTTER
MEXICO 7.0 915 PM 2/10 SINCE 430 PM
FULTON 7.0 500 PM 2/10 SOCIAL MEDIA
HANNIBAL 5.0 355 PM 2/10 POST OFFICE

...WYOMING COUNTY...
ATTICA 8.0 725 PM 2/10 COOP OBSERVER

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Places in Oswego county will get 40"+ storm totals by Saturday evening.

This intrigues me. About 0.2" falls before 7z: 

post-595-0-68458900-1455168913_thumb.png

 

It's a very strange scenario, and I don't know what to make of it. We're back to riding the northern fringe of this band, but its snowing nonetheless. Radar suggests to me at least that this band may end up going a bit north over the next couple hours. I'm going to have a very busy/rough day ahead of me tomorrow but the possibility of watching another 8" or so fall is tempting...

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