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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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Ayuud GFS brings the SW wind Friday as well. All models are on board. Thinking LES Warning for all of Erie with totals of more than a foot in hardest hit areas.

That's what i was thinking also, the band starts to intensify late Thursday night near the southtowns and remains there till early Friday before it slowly shifts towards the city out to the airport and remains there till the arctic front drops south.. it looks good for a nice quick dump of heavy snow anywhere in between from Eden out to the city.

 

Local mets all suggest band moves south. Irondequoit 2.5" so far. I'm not sure I see much southern mvmt on rapid refresh models until 2-3 am. I like Saturday-Sunday for us Tim!

You should look at the latest WRF, it has an intense band drop south toward downtown ROC between 7pm-10pm before it lifts it up north.

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Ha-ha , probably wrong choice of words..They have great maps though and for 20 a month (180 year) its not terrible..

Yeah i get it through my work. Its nice. I personally get a visceral, gross reaction eveytime i open up the website and see jbs and maue's faces..but what can u do.

However, id be careful with posting the images. Its against wxbells and americanwx's policies and theoretically this board could get in troubl3.

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U can post any map not named the euro or its ensembles, just not a lot lol

 

 

 

Note: Any maps, images or charts from ECMWF (License)may never be posted or re-distributed (except for WMO-Essential). All other maps, images and charts from other models may be shared in moderation under the following conditions: The images may not be used for any commercial (revenue generating) purpose including, but not limited to, ad-supported websites or private consulting. Any images must be attributed to WeatherBell Analytics. If confused, ask Ryan. 
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I think we get hit with a synoptic event some time this month. This set-up is favorable for cutting.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_8.png

We were talking before about the nao. Bufs best synotic event occurred with a very deep central plains trough and a negative nao so it didnt cut.

Also, to get your classic 4 to 8/6 to 12 miller bs in buf...you want a clipper to slow down and pass south of u...when does that happen? Neg nao.

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Took a quick look at the gfs and it had a west wind between 21z and 0z..Makes sense looking at radar..Soon winds should turn out of the wnw/nw for the next 24-36 hours before turning SW and then back NW after the front..

Yeah looks right but lots of sheer with the changing winds and troughs. I'll post bufkit profiles when I get back from gym.

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We were talking before about the nao. Bufs best synotic event occurred with a very deep central plains trough and a negative nao so it didnt cut.

Also, to get your classic 4 to 8/6 to 12 miller bs in buf...you want a clipper to slow down and pass south of u...when does that happen? Neg nao.

True, when was the last negative nao lol

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Took a quick look at the gfs and it had a west wind between 21z and 0z..Makes sense looking at radar..Soon winds should turn out of the wnw/nw for the next 24-36 hours before turning SW and then back NW after the front..

I wouldn't look at the GFS for wind trajectory as the globals have much less resolution for LES.  The Hi Res NAM, WRF, or Rgem is much more suitable, but your right either way.  Band is steady state, till the wind shift occurs, which is indicative of the band drifting South and is taking on a more WNW look.

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Fresh off the presses for Metro Buffalo!

Lake Effect Snow Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

758 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NYZ010-011-110900-

/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.A.0007.160212T0900Z-160213T0000Z/

NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA

758 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT

THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT

SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN

PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND GREATLY

REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE WATCH IS

MEDIUM. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION AND

INTENSITY A BAND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY

NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

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Fresh off the presses for Metro Buffalo!

Lake Effect Snow Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

758 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NYZ010-011-110900-

/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.A.0007.160212T0900Z-160213T0000Z/

NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA

758 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT

THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT

SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN

PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND GREATLY

REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE WATCH IS

MEDIUM. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION AND

INTENSITY A BAND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY

NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

 

Ayuud GFS brings the SW wind Friday as well. All models are on board. Thinking LES Warning for all of Erie with totals of more than a foot in hardest hit areas.

 

:whistle:

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