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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!

BuffaloWeather

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Can't believe this is a forecast discussion for April. Reminds me of one from mid winter.

 

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...WINTER COLD AND SNOW TO RETURN TO OUR REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...

ON SATURDAY LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH ITS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. AT THE SURFACE... A SECONDARY WEAK SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL
QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD AND FINISH SWEEPING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE MORNING...
WITH A NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS MARKING ITS
PASSAGE. MEANWHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM...YET ANOTHER AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF ORGANIZING AND
SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...IN
RESPONSE TO A POTENT CHANNELED SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THIS LATTER WAVE WILL APPROACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO RENEWED RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY WESTWARD. TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS TO MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE THIRD SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD
ROUGHLY ALONG THE NEW YORK-PENNSYLVANIA BORDER BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z... BEFORE TRACKING TO THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD BY 12Z. AS THIS
LOW PASSES BY OUR LONGITUDE...IT WILL ALSO DRAW A BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF ARCTIC-SOURCED AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH
WILL DRIVE 850 MB TEMPS DOWNWARD INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW WILL GENERATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR WHICH A MIX OF
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS IN PLAY.

THE GREATEST OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HEAVIEST OVERALL
PRECIP WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY...WHICH WILL LIE UNDER A NARROW BUT
IMPRESSIVE BELT OF DEEP SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW TRACK. AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN STEADILY COOLS...RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE STEADIER PRECIP EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WILL
QUICKLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH
AREAS OF EMBEDDED LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW ALSO DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES AS LAKE DELTA T`S REACH/EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS. THE
BALANCE OF THE NIGHT WILL THEN FEATURE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
SYNOPTIC SNOWS ALONG WITH AREAS OF LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES TRANSITIONING TO MORE IN THE WAY OF PURE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS SUPPORTING MOISTURE/LIFT PULL EAST
OF OUR REGION... WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING THAT THE
LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY MAY BENEFIT FROM A DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW...WHILE TEMPS ALOFT ALSO MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES CELSIUS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RETURN OF STRONG EARLY
APRIL DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON SUNDAY...ALL OF THIS SHOULD THEN
RESULT IN DIMINISHING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WHEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG DIURNAL INFLUENCES WILL ALSO LIKELY HELP
TO KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM AFTER ABOUT MID
SUNDAY MORNING OR SO.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE GUIDANCE STEADILY
TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE PASSING SURFACE LOW...IT NOW APPEARS AS
IF ACCUMS MAY RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE-ENHANCED AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THESE WILL THEN
LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO
SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG APRIL DIURNAL
INFLUENCES TAKE HOLD. PUTTING ALL THIS TOGETHER...IT APPEARS AS IF
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AT LEAST FOR
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND POSSIBLY
ALSO FOR OTHER AREAS SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR WHERE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD PUSH ADVISORY LEVELS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THE INCOMING ARCTIC-SOURCED
AIRMASS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN READINGS
FALLING TO LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY OR FEBRUARY THAN OF
EARLY APRIL...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY THEN STRUGGLING TO
MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. SUCH READINGS WILL
ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL DRIVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD INTO THE TEENS.

AS IF ALL THE ABOVE WASN`T ENOUGH...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A
SECOND ROUND OF NOTEWORTHY SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON
THE HEELS OF THIS FIRST BATCH OF WINTER WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST BROADENS AND FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHARPENING
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK...WITH ITS
AXIS SETTLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL LATCH ONTO THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND QUICKLY SLIDE
EASTWARD ALONG IT...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL TRACK EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON SUCH A TRACK...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING
YET ANOTHER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION...
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEADLINE-WORTHY ACCUMS STILL
APPEARING QUITE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. NEEDLESS TO SAY...
THIS IS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THE
HWO...AND ONE WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE COMING
DAYS. OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S SUNDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ON MONDAY.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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biggest question is track of vort max on Saturday night.  12km NAM/UK/GEMG look best near the thruway, while the 4km nam/00z euro/12z gfs we're a bit further south into the southern tier of ny.  There is definitely potential for greater than 6" amounts in this thing..snow should be squally and heavy for a few hours near midnight...soundings are very convective with tts in the mid 50s and lots of mid level lift through the sgz..and this is the synoptic stuff...not the lake enhancement, yet.  

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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biggest question is track of vort max on Saturday night.  12km NAM/UK/GEMG look best near the thruway, while the 4km nam/00z euro/12z gfs we're a bit further south into the southern tier of ny.  There is definitely potential for greater than 6" amounts in this thing..snow should be squally and heavy for a few hours near midnight...soundings are very convective with tts in the mid 50s and lots of mid level lift through the sgz..and this is the synoptic stuff...not the lake enhancement, yet.

Can't believe I'm tracking a snow threat from the beach at Ft Lauderdale, where it's currently close to 90 deg and sunny...Flying home tonight, just in time for this little event.

outside chance BUF gets double digits between the Sat night event and next one on Sun night?

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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Can't believe I'm tracking a snow threat from the beach at Ft Lauderdale, where it's currently close to 90 deg and sunny...Flying home tonight, just in time for this little event.

outside chance BUF gets double digits between the Sat night event and next one on Sun night?

total?  yeah there's a slight chance. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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WWA for all of WNY just issued.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN TIER AND NIAGARA FRONTIER.* TIMING...FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY  NIGHT.* HAZARDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES. GREATEST SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE  HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A HALF MILE AT TIMES.
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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Latest Discussion

 

THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TO THE NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND DEEPENING A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH WILL
BECOME AT LEAST 3SD BELOW NORMAL IN THE HEIGHT FIELD. WITHIN THIS
TROUGH WILL FLOW HIGHLY ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES AT
850 HPA NEARING ALLTIME LOW VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENED BY A SUB 600 HPA PV INTRUSION ON THE 1.5
PV SURFACE SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS DYNAMIC AND
ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM...WILL DRAW AN AREA OF VERY COLD AIR (-15 TO
-18C AT 850 HPA) SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...FORMING A SEMBLANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROWAL OVER
WNY. THROUGH THE NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH ALL REGIONS UNDER THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT BY
SUNDAY MORNING. ALOFT THE UPSTREAM JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FLOW SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH ITS LEFT EXIT REGION
REMAINING OVER WNY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE BROAD
SCALE LIFT FROM THE JET...ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FORCING FROM BOTH THE
TROWEL AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE EFFECTS WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT. THE FAVORABLE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW
THAT FALLS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO ADD UP
TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF WNY AND WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S TO
UPPER TEENS.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TO OUR EAST...WITH SYNOPTIC SNOWS
LIKELY ENDED BY EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER SNOWS WILL BE CONTINUING AS
THE STEADY FLOW OF COLD AIR OVER THE LAKES BRING FAVORABLE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS FOR THE CONTINUATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE -15 TO -18C AIR OVER THE WARM LAKES OF AROUND 4
TO 5C WILL CREATE NEAR EXTREME LAKE INSTABILITY...WITH LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEARING 15K FEET. WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE LIKELY...OFF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND LAKE ONTARIO ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE. THERE
IS SOME HINTS THAT UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
ANY CONNECTIONS ENHANCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE STRONG APRIL SUN
ANGLE WILL BREAK APART LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING....WITH CELLULAR SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD SOME AS THE POOL OF
COLDER AIR SHIFTS EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND RANGE THROUGH THE 20S...AND LIKELY JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD COLD MAXES FOR THE DAY. IN FACT THE HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO A MID WINTER DAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW IT WILL BECOME WINDY SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IT IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION THAT WINDS OVER THE LAKE TO THE
LAND COULD OBTAINS GUST SPEEDS OF 45 MPH.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWS LATER SUNDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA. THIS CLIPPER WILL TAKE A
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL TRACK...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH
THE LOW TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THERE WILL BE A TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT ALOFT OVER THE REGION...WITH FAVORABLE LIFT ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH AGAIN THE SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY...AND PAST THE DIURNAL EFFECTS OF THE SUN...THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE PROBLEM WITH THE SNOW ACCUMULATING. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR AGAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE HWO.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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biggest question is track of vort max on Saturday night.  12km NAM/UK/GEMG look best near the thruway, while the 4km nam/00z euro/12z gfs we're a bit further south into the southern tier of ny.  There is definitely potential for greater than 6" amounts in this thing..snow should be squally and heavy for a few hours near midnight...soundings are very convective with tts in the mid 50s and lots of mid level lift through the sgz..and this is the synoptic stuff...not the lake enhancement, yet.  

 

Any potential with thunder snow with the mid level trowel tomorrow night into Sunday am?

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Can't believe I'm tracking a snow threat from the beach at Ft Lauderdale, where it's currently close to 90 deg and sunny...Flying home tonight, just in time for this little event.

outside chance BUF gets double digits between the Sat night event and next one on Sun night?

 

I'm going to Fort Lauderdale in 4 weeks from today. Looks like your body will be in for quite the shock. ^_^

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

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12z GFS has another big cold shot next weekend and then a prolonged significant ice event from day 7-10.   The pattern after day 7 is wildly complex though and unlikely, but just the fact that it is there is quite impressive.  As a gardener and beekeeper, this weather is posing some major challenges for me this year.  I love it and hate it at the same time, plus I already took my snow tires off!   :axe:

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