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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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Better late than never I guess?...

LOOKING FURTHER OUT...WE MAY BE SEEING A RATHER OMINOUS PATTERN

SHIFT DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY IN

REMARKABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DREADED CROSS-

POLAR FLOW OUT OF SIBERIA THAT WILL DIRECT A SOLID SHOT OF POLAR AIR

ACROSS THE CANADIAN ARCTIC AND DIRECTLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH

THE POLAR VORTEX SETTING UP SHOP SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY BY NEXT

SATURDAY. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT NEAR-RECORD

COLD NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT

SNOW...HOWEVER IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THIS IS VERY FAR OUT AT THIS

POINT AND GUIDANCE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A SIGNIFICANT GRAIN OF SALT.

NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW

DAYS.

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Better late than never I guess?...

LOOKING FURTHER OUT...WE MAY BE SEEING A RATHER OMINOUS PATTERN

SHIFT DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY IN

REMARKABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DREADED CROSS-

POLAR FLOW OUT OF SIBERIA THAT WILL DIRECT A SOLID SHOT OF POLAR AIR

ACROSS THE CANADIAN ARCTIC AND DIRECTLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH

THE POLAR VORTEX SETTING UP SHOP SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY BY NEXT

SATURDAY. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT NEAR-RECORD

COLD NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT

SNOW...HOWEVER IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THIS IS VERY FAR OUT AT THIS

POINT AND GUIDANCE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A SIGNIFICANT GRAIN OF SALT.

NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW

DAYS.

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What a roller-coaster this winter season has been! Would love to see one more major blast of cold before Spring finally takes hold.

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"HOWEVER IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THIS IS VERY FAR OUT AT THIS
POINT AND GUIDANCE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A SIGNIFICANT GRAIN OF SALT."

 

Yeah, it's not like every model and every ensemble member is in agreement. Oh wait, they are.

 

You know, March is March and I can tolerate this kind of crap. But April...come on!

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That is some serious cold. If this happens lake effect would be a concern, but diurnal influences would be quite large. Would have to be night to get a really good band going. The suns angle is equal to September 1st when this hits. To far out to pintpoint wind direction, but first call is gradually going from SW to NW. The GEM has the best set-up for good LES for Metro Buffalo.

 

gem-ens_z500a_us_33.png

gfs-ens_z500a_us_32.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_9.png

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Keeping the hope alive...

LOOKING AHEAD AT THE FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL...A NEAR RECORD

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (PER NAEFS CLIMO)

WILL DEVELOP INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL AID IN THE

DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A NEAR RECORD ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL HUDSON

BAY TROUGH (PER NAEFS CLIMO). THE RESULT WILL BE MUCH COLDER...

POLAR SOURCED... AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SHOULD CURRENT FORECAST 850MB & 925MB TEMPERATURES VERIFY (850MB: -

17C EC / -20C GFS & 925MB: -12C EC / -14C GFS ) THIS AIRMASS WOULD

BE NEAR RECORD COLD VALUES FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL PER SPC SOUNDING

CLIMATOLOGY AT BUFFALO. BESIDES THE COLD AIR... THIS COULD ALSO

RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AS LAKE TEMPS ARE ALREADY PUSHING 40F...

THUS LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WOULD BE LARGE IN SUCH A COLD AIRMASS.

AT THE LEAST... EXPECT SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS BY THE WEEKEND INTO

EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

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look at that snow hole in NE PA with less than 6" id like to see if the Arctic outbreak for next weekend still looks at cold as it does now on Wednesday. Really would be cool to see some significant lake effect snow at this time of the year.

 

Yeah Eastern NY and NE PA did terrible this year. WNY also did terrible, but not in comparison to that. The last really big LES even in April came on April 4-8 2007.

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20080706183530/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0607/n/stormnsum.html

 

Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 26" (Perrysburg); Lake Ontario 38" (Redfield) 

Duration: 90 hours +/- 

Prime Feature: Remarkable long lasting out of season event. Strong diurnal flavor.

This event capped off a memorable 2006-07 season as one of the most intense and long lasting cold periods for so late in the season set off some impressive lake snows east and southeast of the Lakes. It was the first "named" event in the month of April in the 13 year history of lake storms. This combined with the massive October storm to bracket the winter season with the earliest and latest events on record. The event began late Wednesday the 4th following a sharp cold front. A massive upper level low then set up over Quebec and poured near record cold across the eastern two thirds of the nation for several days. Most of the Lakes were open again after mild weather in late March, but eastern Lake Erie still had a good deal of ice cover. Still, the moist northwest flow brought residual moisture from the Upper Lakes and impinged on the Chautauqua ridge and dropped up to a foot of upslope/lake enhanced snow there. Several inches also fell down into the Jamestown area. For the next few days, lake snows became more organized during the late night and early morning periods, breaking up into cellular activity during the afternoon and early evening hours. The heavier accumulations were at night. The Thursday night-Friday morning period brought 6-12" to much of Oswego county and southern Tug Hill and also another 6 to 12 across Chautauqua county, and a surprise 4 to 7 inches across Niagara County. Then, Friday night-Saturday morning period saw an intense band across southern Jefferson county, with somewhat of a repeat along the south shore of the Lake Saturday night and Sunday morning. During the afternoon and early evenings, brief heavy snow showers occurred, but accumulated little. Conditions finally moderated enough to shut down any lake snows late Sunday as inversion lowered and 850 mb temps rose slightly. The totals were impressive, but settled fast due to the season, so no more than a foot was on the ground at any one time anywhere. Very little fell in the Buffalo area, and Rochester caught a bit only Sunday morning.

This event was long lasting and out of season. The totals were impressive, but fell mainly at night in light populated areas, melting off on roadways during the day. It therefore earns three *** stars.

Here are some representative reports. 

Off of Lake Erie...

 

 
Location Snowfall Perrysburg 26 inches Mayville 23 inches Arkwright 18 inches Jamestown 15 inches Warsaw 15 inches East Aurora 9 inches Buffalo metro less than 2 inches

Off of Lake Ontario...

 

Location Snowfall Redfield 38 inches Parish 24 inches Hooker 24 inches Highmarket 18 inches Fulton 16 inches Constantia 15 inches Wolcott 11 inches Watertown 6 inches Lowville 4 inches Rochester metro 2 to 4 inches
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Sounds like something like this could be in order... Think this brought more than a foot to Cleveland metro as well as over 2' just SE of there.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080706183530/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0607/n/stormnsum.html

 

Opps, didn't see the link. ^_^

 

The Buffalo snow history book has several large events in April as well.

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can you post more info on these events? Like dates and snowfall amounts, if time allows

 

April 10-11 1894. 30" of total snow. 26 MPH winds. Snow was general throughout the Great Lakes. Heavy, wet snow downed many tree limbs, telegraph, telephone, and power lines. Up to 30" buried the Warsaw area in Wyoming county.

 

April. 19-20, 1901. General heavy wet snowstorm. Downed many tree limbs and power lines. 26 MPH winds, temperatures at 32 degrees. Up to 18" fell in Hamburg and Dunkirk. Buffalos streetcar system was crippled. The storm caused structural damage to buildings on the Pan-American Exposition grounds and delayed opening day ceremonies for three weeks.

 

March. 29-30th 1954: Heavy snow began falling shortly before the evening rush hour. A massive traffic jam ensued on the streets of Buffalo, and was not cleared until early the following morning. Hundreds abandoned their vehicles in the streets. The Storm claimed twelve victims.

 

April 3-5 1975: General snowstorm. 20" max totals, 46 MPH winds 17 degree temps. Unusually harsh April storm blanketed all of Western NY beneath a foot of snow with up to 20" in Genesee County. The storm was accompanied with record cold. Highways were closed including the NYS thruway.

 

May 7th 1989: General snowstorm. 1 foot of snow, 37 MPH winds, temps 32. Unprecendented late-season storm shattered all of Buffalos May snow records. Up to a foot of snow fell in Genesee, Wyoming, Catt counties. I believe the Airport had 8.2"?

 

April 23-24, 2012

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/34018-potential-late-season-snow-event-for-western-ny-and-pa/

 

Highest totals:

 

Lynden NY 24"

East Otto 18"

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Still following...

A BIG CHANGE TO THE WEATHER COMES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... WITH

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVING TO

START THE NEW WEEK. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES

OUT A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT BUILDS INTO GULF OF

ALASKA MID TO LATE WEEK... WHICH TRIGGERS DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT

WEEK. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ESCAPE FROM THE POLAR REGIONS AND

TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS.

COMPARING NAEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE CFSR

CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES AN AIRMASS AROUND THE 99TH COLDEST PERCENTILE

FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS IN MIND... IT IS LIKELY THAT

DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S...

AND THE COLDEST MORNING WILL LIKELY COME MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN

THE TEENS AND POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. BESIDE

THE COLD AIR... THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AS

LAKE TEMPS ARE ALREADY PUSHING 40F... THUS LAKE INDUCED

INSTABILITY WOULD BE LARGE IN SUCH A COLD AIRMASS. AT THE LEAST...

EXPECT SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT

WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

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THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BLUSTERY AND

GENERALLY UNPLEASANT DAY ON SATURDAY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS

ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON THE

LAKES...AND ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY EVEN WARNING LEVEL GUSTS INLAND

ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS

TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 40S BACK INTO THE 30S SATURDAY

EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE INTO THE UPPER TEENS

TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES IN

EARNEST. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE A ROBUST LAKE RESPONSE

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMBING IN

EXCESS OF 10KFT ON REASONABLY WELL-ALIGNED WNW FLOW. THIS WILL

LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION SOUTHEAST OF

THE LAKES...THOUGH THE BUFFALO METRO SHOULD BE LARGELY SPARED ANY

SIGNIFICANT SNOWS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH

PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...BOTH DISRUPTING DIMINISHING THE LOW-

LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKES AND SENDING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CRASHING.

HOWEVER BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...A NEW THREAT EMERGES EVEN AS

THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE

ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT THE REGION. AS UPPER AND MID-LEVEL

FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE

THAT A SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND

POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH THIS THERMAL GRADIENT MAY SEND A

SURFACE LOW RIPPLING ALONG THE ZONE...IN TURN GENERATING A ZONE OF

STRONG ISENTROPIC UPLIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THAT

COULD BRING A LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM TO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE FEATURES INVOLVED WILL

HAVE TO LINE UP JUST RIGHT AND WE ARE STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT TO

PREDICT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH ANY CERTAINTY.

947048f0f1e667e285f0cd98dc0be1ac.jpg

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THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BLUSTERY AND

GENERALLY UNPLEASANT DAY ON SATURDAY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS

ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON THE

LAKES...AND ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY EVEN WARNING LEVEL GUSTS INLAND

ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS

TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 40S BACK INTO THE 30S SATURDAY

EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE INTO THE UPPER TEENS

TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES IN

EARNEST. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE A ROBUST LAKE RESPONSE

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMBING IN

EXCESS OF 10KFT ON REASONABLY WELL-ALIGNED WNW FLOW. THIS WILL

LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION SOUTHEAST OF

THE LAKES...THOUGH THE BUFFALO METRO SHOULD BE LARGELY SPARED ANY

SIGNIFICANT SNOWS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH

PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...BOTH DISRUPTING DIMINISHING THE LOW-

LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKES AND SENDING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CRASHING.

HOWEVER BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...A NEW THREAT EMERGES EVEN AS

THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE

ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT THE REGION. AS UPPER AND MID-LEVEL

FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE

THAT A SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND

POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH THIS THERMAL GRADIENT MAY SEND A

SURFACE LOW RIPPLING ALONG THE ZONE...IN TURN GENERATING A ZONE OF

STRONG ISENTROPIC UPLIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THAT

COULD BRING A LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM TO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE FEATURES INVOLVED WILL

HAVE TO LINE UP JUST RIGHT AND WE ARE STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT TO

PREDICT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH ANY CERTAINTY.

947048f0f1e667e285f0cd98dc0be1ac.jpg

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LOL, that would be great...I've been telling friends and family that winter wasn't done with us yet (regarding cold & snow). I think we've got the cold down, just hope we can pull off one more thumping of the white stuff. 

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What lake effect lol?

? Lake Erie is in the low 40s right now. The air will be cold enough for LES.

 

MOST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL

BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THEN A COATING TO

POSSIBLY TWO INCHES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF

THE LAKES...WHERE THE PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO

THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT

AND SUNDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL

AMOUNTS. WHILE IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO ESTIMATE EXACT SNOWFALL

TOTALS...THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INCREASING

INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL

INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS

ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE TO GREATEST

INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

 

gfs_T850_us_12.png

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? Lake Erie is in the low 40s right now. The air will be cold enough for LES.

MOST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL

BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THEN A COATING TO

POSSIBLY TWO INCHES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF

THE LAKES...WHERE THE PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO

THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT

AND SUNDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL

AMOUNTS. WHILE IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO ESTIMATE EXACT SNOWFALL

TOTALS...THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INCREASING

INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL

INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS

ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE TO GREATEST

INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

gfs_T850_us_12.png

I get that...but why the lack of focus on the potent synoptic event first?

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