OSUmetstud Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Buf is insistent on warming us above freezing tomorrow aftn. I dont agree. Rgem hrgrem and 4km nam do not warm above 31 degrees. These mesos tend to do better for 2m temps in ene winds north of a warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Buf is insistent on warming us above freezing tomorrow aftn. I dont agree. Rgem hrgrem and 4km nam do not warm above 31 degrees. These mesos tend to do better for 2m temps in ene winds north of a warm front. CMC-REG is pretty consistent on BUF being on the icy mix line while north of it gets heavy snow and the southern portion get rain/snow mix, I'm thinking 8-10" for Northern Erie county into Niagara and 4-6" for BUF south towns with significant freezing rain accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Dave Longley from channel 9 in Syracuse posted this map on facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I wouldn't say 0.5" of ice is 'crippling' in upstate NY. Closer to 1", sure. In my experience, large branches and trees don't really start coming down until greater than 0.5", but sure you can have some limbs down and isolated power outages with less than that. In any case, I can't imagine too many places seeing 0.25" freezing rain accretion with this set-up, let alone 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Dave Longley from channel 9 in Syracuse posted this map on facebook. Thinking he's a bit low, but we'll see. I went to school with Dave and interned at channel 9 w/Eichorn many moons ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 So to recap a few forecast calls... The NWS giving weenies hope since 2014... Arron seems a bit unsure about his numbers... Todd looks stoked about his map! And Kevin didn't want to be seen on screen with his forecast. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'm feeling pretty confident in my location at this point. I'm at least all frozen in some form or another for the duration of the event. Not much of a buzz about it in the roc though.....yet It's nocturnal peak will help us with accumulations. I think the Wednesday morning commute will be a trainwreck again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I wouldn't say 0.5" of ice is 'crippling' in upstate NY. Closer to 1", sure. In my experience, large branches and trees don't really start coming down until greater than 0.5", but sure you can have some limbs down and isolated power outages with less than that. In any case, I can't imagine too many places seeing 0.25" freezing rain accretion with this set-up, let alone 0.5". Actually sat in on a seminar with NWSFO Albany quite a few years ago and its actually closer to 2" of ice that is bad. 1/2"-1" is bad IF ice accretion is accompanied by strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Actually sat in on a seminar with NWSFO Albany quite a few years ago and its actually closer to 2" of ice that is bad. 1/2"-1" is bad IF ice accretion is accompanied by strong winds. That's rubbish. All hell breaks lose by 1". I've seen storms with even less than that cause signicant issues. That said, this is a tough thing to quantify as there are many variables such as tree type, wind, amount of time since last ice event, time of year, Etc. But my god, to say that 1 inch isn't that bad unless there are strong winds is just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 So to recap a few forecast calls... The NWS giving weenies hope since 2014... Arron seems a bit unsure about his numbers... Todd looks stoked about his map! And Kevin didn't want to be seen on screen with his forecast. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I think he's trying to figure out what the freak he's thinking with all those contours. Maybe he's really going out on a limb predicting accumulations down to the tenth of an inch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think he's trying to figure out what the freak he's thinking with all those contours. Maybe he's really going out on a limb predicting accumulations down to the tenth of an inch... Lol, went to school Aaron...and Brandolino as well. We had a lot of fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Lol, went to school Aaron...and Brandolino as well. We had a lot of fun... Nice. It would be cool if one of the on-air mets was active on this board. Match wits with the likes of OSU, Delta, etc. See if you can recruit one of them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 That's rubbish. All hell breaks lose by 1". I've seen storms with even less than that cause signicant issues. That said, this is a tough thing to quantify as there are many variables such as tree type, wind, amount of time since last ice event, time of year, Etc. But my god, to say that 1 inch isn't that bad unless there are strong winds is just crazy. Well that's what the research showed. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 What did you guys get out of the December 21, 2013 storm? It wasa crippling ice storm in Toronto. Did you guys get plain rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 0z nam says low goes waaay north. Dry slot all WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 What did you guys get out of the December 21, 2013 storm? It wasa crippling ice storm in Toronto. Did you guys get plain rain? I remember being in Grand Island during that storm, and we ended up with maybe .25-.5 there. It was enough to bring down some branches, but nothing too extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Im almost sure buf will get less than 4 inches at this point. Ip/zr will last too long with an 850 low to our north. Rgem nam and gfs are on board with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Im almost sure buf will get less than 4 inches at this point. Ip/zr will last too long with an 850 low to our north. Rgem nam and gfs are on board with this. I'll take it, was hoping for a nice ice storm. How much ice are you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 A repeat of March 2012 coming? Skip Spring and go right into Summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'll take it, was hoping for a nice ice storm. How much ice are you thinking? Not that much. Im think 1/4 inch at most. Qpf isnt great and some of it might just ip and not zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Not that much. Im think 1/4 inch at most. Qpf isnt great and some of it might just ip and not zr. Well we have another week left of winter to enjoy before we head to near 70 late next week. I'll enjoy whatever we get and be ready to move on to some nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 No ice to be seen on what is usually the most covered the lake gets. Reminds me of 2012. The good thing about no ice it means the cool lake breeze that persists until late April due to the ice on the lake will not be present. It will allow us to get some nice temps earlier than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'll wait for the Canadian and euro before I give up on this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 No ice to be seen on what is usually the most covered the lake gets. Reminds me of 2012. The good thing about no ice it means the cool lake breeze that persists until late April due to the ice on the lake will not be present. It will allow us to get some nice temps earlier than usual. Looks like my "theory" about little or no ice cover translating to severely below average snowfall will hold up this year. I posted some stats on this a year or 2 ago. You usually start to hear talk by mid January when the lake isn't iced up that we'll be hit hard by lake effect. But the patterns that lock in to keep the lake ice free are hostile to lake effect. I think the stats show that the highest snow years in BUF occur when the lake freezes either on time or earlier than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Gonna be almost all rain here, and I'm happy about it. Winter is done in my mind now, so bring the warmth! Euro advertising 70F temps next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looks like my "theory" about little or no ice cover translating to severely below average snowfall will hold up this year. I posted some stats on this a year or 2 ago. You usually start to hear talk by mid January when the lake isn't iced up that we'll be hit hard by lake effect. But the patterns that lock in to keep the lake ice free are hostile to lake effect. I think the stats show that the highest snow years in BUF occur when the lake freezes either on time or earlier than normal. Well yeah, when the lake freezes up it means there was an extensive period of colder than 32 deg weather...Which more often than not leads to a greater chance of synoptic snow/LES. This year there was literally no cold, due to El Nino. There was a 2 week period in early Jan, and a week in Feb? That was about it for cold/snow. Years in which lake Erie completely freezes (69%) are years with above average snowfall due to the sheer higher probability of receiving precipitations in the form of snow. The longer it stays cold, the greater opportunity there is to receive a higher yearly snowfall total. With the lake open in Feb, we could have received an epic dumping like 2007, instead we were warm as usual due to El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'll wait for the Canadian and euro before I give up on this.. Canadian bumped northwest too. It's still really close though for northern Erie points north, so would only take a minor nudge back south to get into the heavier snow. But trends are certainly not moving in that direction tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Gonna be almost all rain here, and I'm happy about it. Winter is done in my mind now, so bring the warmth! Euro advertising 70F temps next week GFS has +24 Euro even hotter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looks like my "theory" about little or no ice cover translating to severely below average snowfall will hold up this year. I posted some stats on this a year or 2 ago. You usually start to hear talk by mid January when the lake isn't iced up that we'll be hit hard by lake effect. But the patterns that lock in to keep the lake ice free are hostile to lake effect. I think the stats show that the highest snow years in BUF occur when the lake freezes either on time or earlier than normal. Basically it boils down to this, "any winter in which temperatures are average/below average for the majority of winter (Late Nov-March) will almost certainly also be above normal in the snowfall department." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Basically it boils down to this, "any winter in which temperatures are average/below average for the majority of winter (Late Nov-March) will almost certainly also be above normal in the snowfall department." Yep, pretty much as simple as that. Those temps next week look crazy! Was surprised to see that - been trakcing this upcoming storm the last few days and never made it past day 5 on the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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