ayuud11 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Wny looks pretty good on most models i have seen , i would be a little excited if i was there..(if u enjoy snow).. Here in Wcny we are right on the borederline..We have seen some bumps SE with the current modeling.. 4k nam has a nice look to it..Much farther SE then it's precious run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Kbuf COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...THE OVERALL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HASCONTINUED TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TIGHTEN WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OFTHIS SYSTEM...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OFTHE GUIDANCE SUITE STILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT RUN-TO-RUN FLUCTUATIONSWITHIN THE LARGER ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS. OF THE 00Z OPERATIONALGUIDANCE...THE NAM IS THE NORTHERNMOST/WARMEST OVERALL MODEL ANDTRACKS THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGERLAKES ZONES...BUT AT THE SAME TIME IS ALSO A NOTABLY SLOWER OUTLIER/AND PRODUCES HEAVIER OVERALL PRECIP/ COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALL OF WHICH EXHIBIT A SOMEWHAT FASTER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE PREFERREDBY WPC. OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GEM IS THE NORTHERNMOST WITH ATRACK SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THAT OF THE NAM...WHILE THE ECMWFIS THE SOUTHERNMOST AND COLDEST OVERALL SOLUTION WITH A TRACK ACROSSCENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA...WITH THE GFS LYING HALFWAY IN BETWEEN THEGEM AND ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLES ALL FAVOR A FASTERSYSTEM WITH THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS MOSTLY FAVORING A TRACK EITHERALONG OR A BIT SOUTH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...WE FEEL IT BEST TO LEAN HEAVILY ON A BLENDOF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE FORECAST IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAYPERIOD AT THIS TIME...WHILE DISREGARDING THE SLOWER AND WETTER NAMSOLUTION FOR NOW.USING THE ABOVE AS A GUIDE...TUESDAY SHOULD START OFF ON THE MAINLYDRY SIDE...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCESALONG AND NORTH OF A ROUGH JAMESTOWN TO ROCHESTER TO NORTH COUNTRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARDACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN FEATURE A WIDESPREADSWATH OF PRECIPITATION PASSING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW MAKES ITSCLOSEST OVERALL APPROACH TO OUR AREA...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING PRECIPCHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT INTO NEWENGLAND.IN TERMS OF PTYPE...TEMPS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TUESDAYAFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERNTIER AND MAINLY SNOW FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NORTHEASTWARD TO THENORTH COUNTRY...WITH A NARROW RIBBON IN BETWEEN WHERE A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY EVENING THINGS WILLLIKELY BECOME MUCH MESSIER AS THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT WITH THISSYSTEM SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS EITHERHOLD STEADY OR BEGIN TO COOL AS COLDER AIR BEGINS WRAPPING IN AROUNDTHE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. ALL OF THISWILL LIKELY SUPPORT RAIN BEGINNING TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZINGRAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...A WINTRY MIX LYINGFROM MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGERLAKES TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...ANDMAINLY SNOW ACROSS AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCEVALLEY. THIS MIX OF PTYPES SHOULD THEN TEND TO TRANSITION OVER TOALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ANDVERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES BY OUR LONGITUDE ANDDRAWS PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH AN INCREASINGDEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC SNOWSTHEN TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERSSOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY.AT THIS JUNCTURE...GIVEN BOTH THE ABOVE EXPECTATIONS AND A BLENDOF THE WPC/GLOBAL MODEL QPF FORECASTS...IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALLAND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL WITHINTHE ADVISORY RANGE FROM THIS EVENT. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT APPEARSTHAT WE CAN EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO ATHIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE REGION WHERE A WINTRY MIX IS MOSTPERSISTENT...WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 6INCHES POSSIBLE IN A SWATH NORTH OF THIS EXTENDING FROM THE NIAGARAFRONTIER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER SNOWFALLACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. WITH ALLTHIS AND CONTINUED LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TRACK OFTHIS LOW IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO JUST HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM INTHE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. THIS SAID...ITSHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT NARROW REGIONS OF WARNING-CRITERIAICE OR SNOW STILL BOTH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR OUR REGION...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM ULTIMATELY TAKES A TRACK THAT IS EITHERFURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I definitely can see what buf is saying. The combo of ice and snow with the fast movement will make it tough to get warning criteria amounts. Ideally u want a robust low further se...which is difficult in the current pattern with no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 12Z GFS slams BUF again, verbatim definitely warning criteria. Prob 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Uk is amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Uk is amped Amped as in more mix/rain to WNY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Amped as in more mix/rain to WNY? Its hard to tell but i believe so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 12Z GFS slams BUF again, verbatim definitely warning criteria. Prob 8-12". So I'm supposed to travel for business tomorrow, returning late Wednesday. My personal threshold for cancelling work trips is double-digits (I missed a couple big storms when traveling and decided not to let that happen again). Anyway...this storm isn't making the decision easy. It certainly doesn't appear to be a huge hit, but I would hate to miss an 8-12 incher, especially the way this winter has gone. Anyone care to place a percentage on BUF getting 10 inches or more from this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Its hard to tell but i believe so Thanks. I know those Ukie maps make it tough to see details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 So I'm supposed to travel for business tomorrow, returning late Wednesday. My personal threshold for cancelling work trips is double-digits (I missed a couple big storms when traveling and decided not to let that happen again). Anyway...this storm isn't making the decision easy. It certainly doesn't appear to be a huge hit, but I would hate to miss an 8-12 incher, especially the way this winter has gone. Anyone care to place a percentage on BUF getting 10 inches or more from this storm? 10 maybe 15 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 10 maybe 15 percent About what I was thinking too. I'll do you all a favor and keep my trip. I'm sure a freak deformation band will set up over BUF and we end up with 16+ inches. Then I'll get the angry call from my wife after she shovels the driveway where she says,"You idiot, you spend all that time on weather forums and looking at models, and you STILL didn't know we were going to get all this snow??!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 About what I was thinking too. I'll do you all a favor and keep my trip. I'm sure a freak deformation band will set up over BUF and we end up with 16+ inches. Then I'll get the angry call from my wife after she shovels the driveway where she says,"You idiot, you spend all that time on weather forums and looking at models, and you STILL didn't know we were going to get all this snow??!!" Lol. Im pretty sure any freak def band would set up near hamilton or toronto. Even if buf gets more qpf...the snowgrowth looks a lot better just nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Its extremely difficult to get 10 or 12 plus without closed mid levels centers. These tend to be quick moving shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Ice ice baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 12z CMC-REG and GFS both show a foot of snow for BUF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Cejka on WIVB this morning called for a mix - a total non event for the whole region, 2" of slop for Buffalo. He's the worst on air met in town, not because he regularly goes low, but because he puts no effort into his forecasts and dumps the real analysis on the next shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Looks like 12z Euro gives about 6-8" for BUF northward to S. shore of L. Ontario.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Didn't see his until I posted...I'd go down a bit with those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 No flags yet from BUF for WNY. I would expect something to be issued very soon based on this updated point forecast for BUF: Tuesday Snow, mainly after 2pm. High near 35. East wind 5 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Tuesday Night Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. East wind 15 to 17 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'm thinking LE is a possibility with the colder temps along the S. Shore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 ... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. * Locations... portions of the Niagara Frontier east to Monroe County. * Timing... from early Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday morning... . with the period of heaviest snow expect overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. * Hazards... heavy snow and freezing rain. * Accumulations... snow potentially accumulating 5 to 10 inches. Ice potentially accumulating up to one tenth of an inch. Snowfall rates could reach an inch per hour Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. * Winds... northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Visibilities... as low as a quarter mile at times. * Impacts... heavy snow and some ice accumulations will make travel difficult. The heaviest snow is expected to fall overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... which could make for difficult travel during the Wednesday morning commute. * Forecaster confidence... confidence is highest for significant snow accumulations northwest of a line from Buffalo to Rochester... where precipitation should fall as all snow. Confidence is medium for locations southeast of this line where there is greater uncertainty where the transition line to sleet... freezing rain... and rain will evolve. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Storm Watch means that heavy snow and/or ice accumulations are possible. If you are within the watch area... remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can also be found at www.Weather.Gov/Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Good discussion from BUF. Nice use of warm nose... AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA... AWARM NOSE OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL SURGE INTOSOUTHWESTERN NY AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WHILE LOCATIONSJUST NORTH OF THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THECOLUMN. THE SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD TREND IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKNOTED ABOVE WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA(INCLUDING MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY) ON THECOLD SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM... AND THUS STAYING MOSTLY SNOW. THUSHAVE TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION WHERECONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT P-TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. THECHANGE OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR JUST SOUTH OF ABUFFALO TO ROCHESTER LINE... WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OFBUFFALO AND ROCHESTER SEEING MUCH LESS SNOW... BUT PERHAPS A TENTHTO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. FARTHER SOUTH YET...ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER... PRECIPITATIONSHOULD CHANGE ENTIRELY OVER TO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFOREFINISHING AS SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THENORTH COUNTRY... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MOSTLY SNOW EVENTFROM ABOUT THE TUG HILL NORTH. THE TRANSITION LINE IS EXPECTED TOMOVE INTO OSWEGO COUNTY... WITH NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY LIKELY TO SEEMORE SNOW... WHILE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY SEE MORE SLEETAND FREEZING RAIN WITH MUCH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.HAVE DECIDED TO POST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIERACROSS TO MONROE COUNTY AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERECONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN AN ALL SNOW EVENT. LOCATIONS IN THE ALLSNOW SIDE OF THE STORM WILL SEE A HEAVY WET SYNOPTIC SNOW. USINGCONSENSUS QPF AND A BEST BLEND OF SNOW RATIO TECHNIQUES... THE ALLSNOW AREAS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT A 12 TO 1 TO 14 TO 1 RATIO WITH QPFAMOUNTS AROUND TWO THIRDS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. FORECASTSNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS TOROCHESTER RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES... WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVERNIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY... FORECASTSNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES FROM ABOUT THE TUG HILL NORTHTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER... WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ALONGTHE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. FURTHER ENHANCING THE CONFIDENCE IN ASWATH OF 6 TO 10 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COMES FROM THE CIPS ANALOGS.THE MEAN AND MEDIAN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE ANALOGS ALSO SHOWED ANUPWARD TREND FROM THE 00Z TO THE 12Z RUN TODAY WITH AN IMPROVINGTRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. LOOKING THROUGH SOME OF THE INDIVIDUALSTORMS IN THE ANALOG REVEALS THAT 6 TO 10 INCHES IS RIGHT WITHIN THEREALM OF REASONABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR A LOW OF THIS TRACK ANDSPEED. AGAIN... LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE WATCH AREA ARE MOSTLIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... WHILE AREAS ON THESOUTHERN FRINGES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE SMALL CHANGES INTHE TRACK OF THE LOW CAN HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE P-TYPE TRANSITIONLINE. ONCE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRANSITION LINE INCREASES... WILLLIKELY NEED A SWATH OF COUNTIES IN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ALONGTHE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 4km nam brings zr concerns to buf. On bufkit theres .4 inch of zr followed by .4 to .5 qpf as snow after the 850s crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 4km nam brings zr concerns to buf. On bufkit theres .4 inch of zr followed by .4 to .5 qpf as snow after the 850s crash. That would be enough to break branches off right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Here's what I am thinking. Still concerned that I might be a bit too low across the board especially in the Mohawk Valley to Saratoga Lake George regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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