BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 Beautiful parachutes falling from the sky!! Euro still cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro say's NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Yup..we'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 Yup..we'll see.. It's really close actually. This is only through 108 so I think we must be getting some wrap around snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 You know its a bad year when Perrysburg is only at 137.7" through almost March 1st and Holiday Valley is at 111". Out of curiosity I looked at where KBUF is for the season... 47.7". Which is well above lowest all time, but we need 8.8" to be out of the lowest five winters for snowfall. In an ordinary March, that would be little problem, but this year it may be hard to nickel and dime our way out of the bottom five. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro/ggem vs UK/gfs , let the best models win..Hopefully it's a compromise right down the middle lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 Out of curiosity I looked at where KBUF is for the season... 47.7". Which is well above lowest all time, but we need 8.8" to be out of the lowest five winters for snowfall. In an ordinary March, that would be little problem, but this year it may be hard to nickel and dime our way out of the bottom five. http://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10 6 out of the 10 lowest were before they moved the recording station from the waterfront to the airport in 1940. The lowest on record technically was just a few years ago 36.7" in 11-12. http://www.weather.gov/buf/BuffaloSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro is on board for a pretty good hit. All models show almost a warning event for Upstate. The event starts in 3-4 days so it's getting within range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 Eastern NY gets the hardest hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro is on board for a pretty good hit. All models show almost a warning event for Upstate. The event starts in 3-4 days so it's getting within range. Yep, good trends on the 12Z model runs. Let's see if it holds through tomorrow though. A high end advisory/low end warning event would be nice to see run right down the I-90 corridor so we all catch a piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 I just got the Buffalo Blizzard Book in the mail. I did not realize it was hardcover and 330 pages long. Thanks for letting me know about this book, I have lots of reading to do!! This will help me put together the top 20 LES snowstorm montage and top 10 synoptic storm montage this summer on my youtube channel. Maybe Wolfie you could do one off Ontario so I can add to my youtube collection. There is a snowfall table that goes back to 1858 in here! 1866-1867 had 148.5", I wonder what event happened that year. This is the greatest book ever! I get to weenie myself out in LES history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 The NAM looks like a SW flow LES event. There is more snow to come after this timeframe as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Eastern NY gets the hardest hit. That heavy stripe is right over Onondaga County so I guess you consider us in eastern New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 GFS is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Mid-week still looks like an ADK special to me, though I hope we can nudge it slightly east to get the rest of Eastern NY in the better snows too. As is, the latest GFS would still be my heaviest snowfall this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 So according to that book, Buffalos largest synoptic storm is Feb 28th-March 2nd 1900 with 40" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Same as roc 43.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I'm getting more excited about the midweek event...the high is back to the NW with a "neck of the ridge" E-SE to ON/QU. Unlike prior storms where the cold air was LEAVING, this one has the cold air come in or drawn in during the event. Here's what I posted on the WNYT station weather page for my discussion: Expect another active week. Just like last weekend and mild weather this weekend will end on a mild note. Just like last week we're looking at another midweek storm threat followed by a blast of very cold air to close it out.High pressure well to our south and a low pressure system and cold front to our west will provide a SW breeze bringing in some milder air for Sunday afternoon. With at least partly sunny skies expect afternoon temperatures from 50-55 from Albany and points south to 45-50 to the north. As the cold front gets closer Sunday night expect clouds to lower and thicken tomorrow night. Late at night some scattered rain (possibly mixed with wet snow over the Adirondacks) showers to develop. This shower threat will end during Monday morning with the cold front sliding to our east along with sunshine for the afternoon and slightly cooler weather, too. Afternoon highs for Monday in the lower to mid 40s (30s for folks across the Adirondacks). Now we come to Tuesday-Wednesday (the beginning of March) and another threat for a midweek storm (have had a few of them this winter). Like the previous weeks' mid-week storm threats this one will be no different that is, it will be quite a challenge to forecast. It appears that this week's storm will be evolving in a slightly different way: colder air will be located to the NW and N of the region and its showing signs of moving over us. (The previous storms had the cold air to our northeast or east and moving AWAY from us.) This week's storm based on forecast data from nearly all of our computer models is trending to our south and east, keeping us on the cold side and posing the potential for more in the way of wintry precipitation, including SNOW. Whether or not this is indeed the case will depend on the cold air making it over us. (Prior midweek storms tracked to our west placing us on the warm side of the systems.) Right now this forecaster's confidence in the Tues-Wed time period is low and the forecast is subject to change. For now I am thinking we'll see rain on Tuesday especially from Albany south and east changing to snow at night into Wednesday morning. Areas north through northwest COULD see ALL snow or a wintry mix for a while through Wednesday morning.Confidence increases in the forecast for the end of next week. Expect a shot of unseasonably cold air to return to the area.Stay tuned to the latest forecasts over the next few days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 I'm getting more excited about the midweek event...the high is back to the NW with a "neck of the ridge" E-SE to ON/QU. Unlike prior storms where the cold air was LEAVING, this one has the cold air come in or drawn in during the event. Here's what I posted on the WNYT station weather page for my discussion: Expect another active week. Just like last weekend and mild weather this weekend will end on a mild note. Just like last week we're looking at another midweek storm threat followed by a blast of very cold air to close it out. High pressure well to our south and a low pressure system and cold front to our west will provide a SW breeze bringing in some milder air for Sunday afternoon. With at least partly sunny skies expect afternoon temperatures from 50-55 from Albany and points south to 45-50 to the north. As the cold front gets closer Sunday night expect clouds to lower and thicken tomorrow night. Late at night some scattered rain (possibly mixed with wet snow over the Adirondacks) showers to develop. This shower threat will end during Monday morning with the cold front sliding to our east along with sunshine for the afternoon and slightly cooler weather, too. Afternoon highs for Monday in the lower to mid 40s (30s for folks across the Adirondacks). Now we come to Tuesday-Wednesday (the beginning of March) and another threat for a midweek storm (have had a few of them this winter). Like the previous weeks' mid-week storm threats this one will be no different that is, it will be quite a challenge to forecast. It appears that this week's storm will be evolving in a slightly different way: colder air will be located to the NW and N of the region and its showing signs of moving over us. (The previous storms had the cold air to our northeast or east and moving AWAY from us.) This week's storm based on forecast data from nearly all of our computer models is trending to our south and east, keeping us on the cold side and posing the potential for more in the way of wintry precipitation, including SNOW. Whether or not this is indeed the case will depend on the cold air making it over us. (Prior midweek storms tracked to our west placing us on the warm side of the systems.) Right now this forecaster's confidence in the Tues-Wed time period is low and the forecast is subject to change. For now I am thinking we'll see rain on Tuesday especially from Albany south and east changing to snow at night into Wednesday morning. Areas north through northwest COULD see ALL snow or a wintry mix for a while through Wednesday morning. Confidence increases in the forecast for the end of next week. Expect a shot of unseasonably cold air to return to the area. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts over the next few days! Thanks for the updates, we greatly appreciate the posts! The Euro looks much stronger through 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 Off the coast by 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yea, that has been a theme tonight..Uk/ggem both west of 12z ..Unfortunately the euro is not running on wb right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yea, that has been a theme tonight..Uk/ggem both west of 12z ..Unfortunately the euro is not running on wb right now.. It was a huge hit for WNY. It's less than 3 days away so this threat is starting to have credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Gotta say, I'm more enthused about the longer range in the GFS than another shot at a few inches of wet gruel...indications of a more spring like pattern and mild Temps in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Gotta say, I'm more enthused about the longer range in the GFS than another shot at a few inches of wet gruel...indications of a more spring like pattern and mild Temps in 2 weeks.Umm, you do realize you are addressing hyper, insane, winter enthusiast. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Whoa gfs. A little too amplified for buf lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Umm, you do realize you are addressing hyper, insane, winter enthusiast. LolThis winter, if you want to call it that, pretty much was a fail. If it can't be done right, I'll kick it to the curb. 00z GFS nice look for BUF and points NW...looks like a rinse and repeat of the previous "Storm Gruel" for CNY and ENY. Maybe even less front end snow in CNY. 850 low is shown near Toronto. Never a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 Umm, you do realize you are addressing hyper, insane, winter enthusiast. Lol Contrary to popular belief by favorite season is summer by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Oh my.. :wub: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Whoa gfs. A little too amplified for buf lol It gives KBUF about 0.8" worth of ice yikes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.