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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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This week into early March is usually the time period for peak ice on Erie. Look at the lake...The good news is that the lake will be warming quite quickly this spring so less lake breezes and a quicker start to summer! I go back and forth on what my favorite season is but still think summer is definitely my favorite. Nothing beats humid nights and warm sunny days on the beach!

 

a1.16054.1836.LakeErie.143.250m.jpg

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I think it's the SSW that's ongoing right now, I have read from somewhere that once the final warming occurs the PV won't recover till next winter, could we be looking at an early spring?

 

El Nino is still strong. The forecasted quick weakening in the models was way off.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

A record strong El Nino has lag time before it starts to dissipate as well. It has controlled everything this winter despite times with favorable indices minus a - NAO

 

The lower 48 is just flooded with PAC air.

 

 

 

ecmwf_T850_us_7.png

 

ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

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It really is shocking to me how every ensemble guidance was showing very cold temps this weekend but have completely disappeared. The El Nino is still raging strong and is still influencing everything with a dominating PAC flow.

That's what leads me to believe that, even though it may look optimistic now for the near future, the pattern won't come around. We'll probably get cutters and storms without enough cold air. But I guess anything is still possible at this point.

Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk

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0z euro say's what cutter lol (obviously beyond this event)

 

The euro looks decent for lake enhancement on thurs night with about a 1/4"-1/3" LE in form of snow...The next event is basically a cold front with a little lake response after...The LR storm gives alot of over running precip  south of us with a 1041mb high pressure near quebec..It will undoubtedly change at 12z but it looked better then it's previous run, overall, too me..

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I take that back Wolfie, it looks better.

 

The eastern ridge is not as strong with the next event as it was with this event. I would favor Detriot/Toronto locations with this one. I think a coastal transfer is more likely with a Miller B. A spread the wealth type system. but as already mentioned by Geos, it really is an awesome battlezone. It won't be boring, that's for sure. Storm after storm after storm, the only issue is enough cold air.

 

Todays event:

 

gfs_z500a_us_1.png

Next weeks:

 

gfs_z500a_sd_us_29.png

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it's snowing pretty good out there, we picked up 3" since yesterday.. days like this will sure be missed!

 

Yeah we picked up 1.6" to bring us over 70" on the year. Hoping for a big March and the synoptic pattern looks decent. I wouldn't sleep on the March 1st/2nd event and then another later next week.

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