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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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FWIW, QPF on the 00Z Euro of 0.3-0.4" across most of western & northern NY as snow on the backside, with some lake enhancement possibilities, as the mid/upper low tracks NE toward Montreal. A somewhat unusual scenario, but worth watching, especially with the more southeasterly low tracks. 

Indeed it will be interesting to see if BUF issues some watches come this afternoon, i think some places have a decent chance of getting more than 6" with the Lake enhancement.

 

the evolution is very similar to the leap year storm aside from the lack of confluence to the ne :(

What are your thoughts on that storm that keeps showing up around the start of next month? Both the GFS and Euro are showing it,..

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Indeed it will be interesting to see if BUF issues some watches come this afternoon, i think some places have a decent chance of getting more than 6" with the Lake enhancement.

 

What are your thoughts on that storm that keeps showing up around the start of next month? Both the GFS and Euro are showing it,..

it has potential.  

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Did that cold shot this weekend completely disappear? Every time I see the models its less and less cold. It had -20 to -30 850s now its barely -10 to -15. Was looking forward to that for some good lake effect snow. I guess its the story of this winter...

 

gfs_T850_us_31.png

 

ecmwf_T850_us_9.png

 

March 2008 incoming? Parade of synoptic storms on the medium/long range..

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December was a spring month so I'm not hoping for Spring until April 1st. Usually I start cheering for Spring in Mid March.

True, but snow in March is never the same as snow in December. It just doesn't have that same special feel a big snowfall has in December. Maybe we will get lucky and have one storm, but the window is rapidly closing.

Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk

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True, but snow in March is never the same as snow in December. It just doesn't have that same special feel a big snowfall has in December. Maybe we will get lucky and have one storm, but the window is rapidly closing.

Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk

 

Yeah I definitely agree. My favorite months for snow are Late Nov/January by far. We lost almost all of that this year. I expect next year to be much different. We also just had 2 record breaking years in the Southtowns in 13-14 and 14-15. So can't really complain to much.

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It really is shocking to me how every ensemble guidance was showing very cold temps this weekend but have completely disappeared. The El Nino is still raging strong and is still influencing everything with a dominating PAC flow.

I think it's the SSW that's ongoing right now, I have read from somewhere that once the final warming occurs the PV won't recover till next winter, could we be looking at an early spring?

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