ayuud11 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 FWIW, QPF on the 00Z Euro of 0.3-0.4" across most of western & northern NY as snow on the backside, with some lake enhancement possibilities, as the mid/upper low tracks NE toward Montreal. A somewhat unusual scenario, but worth watching, especially with the more southeasterly low tracks. Indeed it will be interesting to see if BUF issues some watches come this afternoon, i think some places have a decent chance of getting more than 6" with the Lake enhancement. the evolution is very similar to the leap year storm aside from the lack of confluence to the ne What are your thoughts on that storm that keeps showing up around the start of next month? Both the GFS and Euro are showing it,.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Storm looks like a classic high wind event for Western ny. 60 70 MPHIL gusts If it was over by MI I'd say so but like Nick said it favors DTW with the current setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Surprisingly next week looks good synoptic wise on the 12z model suite.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The late February sun feels wonderful today. It's got some juice to it. Air temp is 31F but it really feels warm in the sun. And it was light out when I woke up this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Surprisingly next week looks good synoptic wise on the 12z model suite.. Yeah that long range looked great for quite a few synoptic event hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Bet March is snowiest month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 If it was over by MI I'd say so but like Nick said it favors DTW with the current setup. that's not what I meant...I wasn't clear. High winds in BUF if the low were over DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Euro is definitely closer to Ice from BUF northeastward to ART. Has the low over CNY now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I'm convinced I'll have a better chance of sig snow in Buf the 25th to the 4th than I would if I stayed here. What a garbage pattern for NL the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Indeed it will be interesting to see if BUF issues some watches come this afternoon, i think some places have a decent chance of getting more than 6" with the Lake enhancement. What are your thoughts on that storm that keeps showing up around the start of next month? Both the GFS and Euro are showing it,.. it has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Anyone got euro 240 hr snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Anyone got euro 240 hr snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Ty. Hopefully gets jucier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Did that cold shot this weekend completely disappear? Every time I see the models its less and less cold. It had -20 to -30 850s now its barely -10 to -15. Was looking forward to that for some good lake effect snow. I guess its the story of this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 At least the synoptic pattern looks much better and active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Decent hit for Upstate this Sunday on GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 At least the 18z GFS has a nice NYC I-95 storm out at 384 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Did that cold shot this weekend completely disappear? Every time I see the models its less and less cold. It had -20 to -30 850s now its barely -10 to -15. Was looking forward to that for some good lake effect snow. I guess its the story of this winter... March 2008 incoming? Parade of synoptic storms on the medium/long range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 March 2008 incoming? Parade of synoptic storms on the medium/long range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 March 2008 incoming? Parade of synoptic storms on the medium/long range.. At this point I'd much rather take March 2012. I'm doubtful that we will end up seeing a significant snowfall in the next month. Even if we do get a big snow, it won't stick around for long, so I'm ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Annnnd the 0z will probably end up with 6 inches over that same time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Nothing but warm cutters on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 Nothing but warm cutters on the 0z GFS. I wouldn't worry about a single OP run. The GEFS has storm after storm for the next 3 weeks. We will hit on one of them. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_18z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 Annnnd the 0z will probably end up with 6 inches over that same time period December was a spring month so I'm not hoping for Spring until April 1st. Usually I start cheering for Spring in Mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 December was a spring month so I'm not hoping for Spring until April 1st. Usually I start cheering for Spring in Mid March.True, but snow in March is never the same as snow in December. It just doesn't have that same special feel a big snowfall has in December. Maybe we will get lucky and have one storm, but the window is rapidly closing. Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 True, but snow in March is never the same as snow in December. It just doesn't have that same special feel a big snowfall has in December. Maybe we will get lucky and have one storm, but the window is rapidly closing. Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk Yeah I definitely agree. My favorite months for snow are Late Nov/January by far. We lost almost all of that this year. I expect next year to be much different. We also just had 2 record breaking years in the Southtowns in 13-14 and 14-15. So can't really complain to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 It really is shocking to me how every ensemble guidance was showing very cold temps this weekend but have completely disappeared. The El Nino is still raging strong and is still influencing everything with a dominating PAC flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It really is shocking to me how every ensemble guidance was showing very cold temps this weekend but have completely disappeared. The El Nino is still raging strong and is still influencing everything with a dominating PAC flow. I think it's the SSW that's ongoing right now, I have read from somewhere that once the final warming occurs the PV won't recover till next winter, could we be looking at an early spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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