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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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Just have to make it through the cutter..Looks like an arctic front comes through next sat..

attachicon.gifimage.gif

 

It will definitely be wintry later this week into next. I'd say 2-4" in the wrap around snows followed by Lake Advs. Then the clippers which I suspect Lake snow warnings easily along with synoptic lake enhanced snows.

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That system that cuts is going to have major temp issues with no cold air. It's going to have to create its own cold air. I bet whatever falls during the day will have major issues accumulating.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

gfs_T2m_us_15.png

namconus_ref_frzn_us_26.png

namconus_T2m_us_27.png

Gfs has an awful warm bias on 2m temps. Nw of the sfc low will be fine. Theyll be near freezing with moderate snow.

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I'd rather break the record than have a 3-6" snowfall at this point in the season, it'll be gone by the next afternoon anyways.  It's been over 1 year since the last 2.0" snowfall here... why stop now.

This satellite imagery taken at 1/24/16 sums it all up lol..

 

yQIS6Nu.jpg

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I mentioned elsewhere that both Richmond and Wallops Island, VA (On the SE tip of the Delmarva peninsula!!) have had more snow than KALB this year.  Even living in CT from the late 70's through early 90's, I can only remember one winter that maybe rivals this one...

This satellite imagery taken at 1/24/16 sums it all up lol..

 

yQIS6Nu.jpg

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Yeah, it's been brutal for Eastern NY. In general when you lose Nov/Dec the winter needs to really hit a home run the rest of the winter to make up for that lost time. When you're at a top 5 warmest winter ever it's going to be tough to get a lot of snow. Whenever you hear an El Nino you usually can kiss winter goodbye. I was preparing for much worse than what I got this year. We had quite a few LES hits and a great synoptic storm.

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OF LESSER CONCERN...BUT CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING CLOSE TABS ON...

WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PCPN DURING THE INITIAL 12

HOURS OR SO OF THE EVENT...QPF OF ONE INCH OF RAIN...AND FINALLY

ACCUMULATING SNOWS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SNOWFALL

COULD EVENTUALLY PROVE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR SOME AREAS...AS IT

SHOULD BECOME LAKE ENHANCED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

 

AS THE EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY

NIGHT...DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL WRAP ITS WAY BACK ACROSS OUR

REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH THEN

CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS

BECOMING LAKE ENHANCED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES

THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT LAKE EFFECT

SNOW `FLAGS` WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS SCENARIO.

 

 

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I think both the GFS and the euro have been hinting at some decent WWA type snowfall after the low moves through..

 

FWIW, QPF on the 00Z Euro of 0.3-0.4" across most of western & northern NY as snow on the backside, with some lake enhancement possibilities, as the mid/upper low tracks NE toward Montreal. A somewhat unusual scenario, but worth watching, especially with the more southeasterly low tracks. 

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