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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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  On 2/20/2016 at 9:20 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

12_336_arctic10.png

2 months too late, imagine if we had this back in January.. <_<

 

  On 2/20/2016 at 10:41 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

50-60 with high winds and full sunshine will do that quickly.

 

GFS says no one in USA gets 6" from next event.

 

gfs_asnow_us_26.png

*yawn* :axe:

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  On 2/20/2016 at 11:33 PM, ayuud11 said:

2 months too late, imagine if we had this back in January.. <_<

 

*yawn* :axe:

 

Why 2 months late? March can have some big time lake effect. As already mentioned with the April LES storm in 07. As long as you have an open lake, cold air, and right wind direction you can have large LES events. Would be cool to see one off Erie for Metro in March, haven't seen that in awhile.

 

NAM looks good actually, look at that low placement. That would have the look of going negatively tilted and provide us with a long duration snowfall event once the cold air comes in from the northwest.

 

namconus_z500_vort_us_29.png

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_28.png

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  On 2/21/2016 at 11:29 AM, ayuud11 said:

06z Canadian remains unchanged, it takes the low over by NYC and keeps us all snow, I'd say 6-12"+ across upstate.

Let's hope it's right. The 06z GFS is pretty much a rain maker for Buffalo and Toronto, with Chicago and Sault Ste. Marie being in the sweet spot.

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  On 2/21/2016 at 3:30 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

Every other model is way NW with jackpot across Chicago. Ensemble means also agree.

 

EVERY model? :) So how about that arctic outbreak & lake effect prospects for the end of the week and weekend? 

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  On 2/21/2016 at 2:27 PM, ADKwx said:

A not-so-related question for y'all. Is the NOGAPS considered a crap model these days? I haven't looked at it much in ages. From the performance stats I can find, it looks like the worst. What about the JMA? :)

Yeah they both stink lol. The gem is marginally better than those two.

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  On 2/21/2016 at 4:41 PM, ayuud11 said:

God damm Canadian caved in too.. :(

Did you really expect the other models to cave to the Canadian? The storm winds up too early and really pumps up the heights along the east coast. This causes the storm to cut. As the storm occludes we actually get dry slotted on the GFS and may not end up with that much rain. It looks to get pretty cold starting next weekend and continuing right to the end of the operational GFS run. Unfortunately, our weather looks to be dominated by the northern stream which means we will probably have to rely on the lakes for any significant snowfall.

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  On 2/21/2016 at 4:10 PM, OSUmetstud said:

One thing to watch is the high to the north. If it can trend to a bit stronger and if the system occludes early enough ice could be an issue.

 

Yeah even as it stands now, models have 'some' snow/ice at onset. More of an issue for the usual areas in northern/eastern NY and New England. 

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