wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 post-16-1455992973_thumb.png post-16-1455992978_thumb.png Yep, the PV decides to make a late winter visit. It finally split. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/2/19/1487234/-Arctic-Heat-Sea-Ice-Collapse-Has-Split-the-Polar-Vortex-in-Two-Sending-El-Ni-o-Rains-to-Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 NAM looks like coastal transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Remember this lake snow event in April. 26" in Perrysburg, 38" in Redfield from April 4-8 2007. You can get lake effect at any time despite diurnal influences in Upstate. https://web.archive.org/web/20080706183530/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0607/n/stormnsum.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 EPS Mean isn't to bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I can't believe we lost foot of snow in a day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 I can't believe we lost foot of snow in a day.. 50-60 with high winds and full sunshine will do that quickly. GFS says no one in USA gets 6" from next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 2 months too late, imagine if we had this back in January.. 50-60 with high winds and full sunshine will do that quickly. GFS says no one in USA gets 6" from next event. *yawn* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 2 months too late, imagine if we had this back in January.. *yawn* Why 2 months late? March can have some big time lake effect. As already mentioned with the April LES storm in 07. As long as you have an open lake, cold air, and right wind direction you can have large LES events. Would be cool to see one off Erie for Metro in March, haven't seen that in awhile. NAM looks good actually, look at that low placement. That would have the look of going negatively tilted and provide us with a long duration snowfall event once the cold air comes in from the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Looks like ice storm potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Very interesting. Not sure but the final outcome may be something completely different than what everyone thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 0Z GFS is way NW. Tomorrow nights runs continue to show NW I think we punt this one. Will be within the 3-4 day time slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 0Z GFS is way NW. Tomorrow nights runs continue to show NW I think we punt this one. Will be within the 3-4 day time slot. GGEM takes the low over NYC still, probably caves by tomorrow at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GGEM takes the low over NYC still, probably caves by tomorrow at 12z. It looks good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 06z Canadian remains unchanged, it takes the low over by NYC and keeps us all snow, I'd say 6-12"+ across upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 06z Canadian remains unchanged, it takes the low over by NYC and keeps us all snow, I'd say 6-12"+ across upstate. Let's hope it's right. The 06z GFS is pretty much a rain maker for Buffalo and Toronto, with Chicago and Sault Ste. Marie being in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 A not-so-related question for y'all. Is the NOGAPS considered a crap model these days? I haven't looked at it much in ages. From the performance stats I can find, it looks like the worst. What about the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 Every other model is way NW with jackpot across Chicago. Ensemble means also agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Every other model is way NW with jackpot across Chicago. Ensemble means also agree. EVERY model? So how about that arctic outbreak & lake effect prospects for the end of the week and weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 A not-so-related question for y'all. Is the NOGAPS considered a crap model these days? I haven't looked at it much in ages. From the performance stats I can find, it looks like the worst. What about the JMA? Yeah they both stink lol. The gem is marginally better than those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I think the one bullet we have left for next storm is that none of us are in the NWP jackpot 3 days out...grasping at straws here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 One thing to watch is the high to the north. If it can trend to a bit stronger and if the system occludes early enough ice could be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 God damm Canadian caved in too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 God damm Canadian caved in too.. Did you really expect the other models to cave to the Canadian? The storm winds up too early and really pumps up the heights along the east coast. This causes the storm to cut. As the storm occludes we actually get dry slotted on the GFS and may not end up with that much rain. It looks to get pretty cold starting next weekend and continuing right to the end of the operational GFS run. Unfortunately, our weather looks to be dominated by the northern stream which means we will probably have to rely on the lakes for any significant snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 One thing to watch is the high to the north. If it can trend to a bit stronger and if the system occludes early enough ice could be an issue. Yeah even as it stands now, models have 'some' snow/ice at onset. More of an issue for the usual areas in northern/eastern NY and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 CMC still tries to plaster far WNW WNY (think the falls) with hvy wet snow. GFS came back a tick east, still way west. A couple cycles yet before I give up. We're talking a 100-125 miles on 2/3 of the ensembles and we are in it. Keep hope alive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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