BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Being a snow lover this winter in central NY has been just like being a Bills fan and watching them play Brady the past 15 years. I've reached the point with both that no matter how good the set-up looks, or the seeming inevitability of victory, I am certain a way will be found to lose. It makes my physically ill to watch Brady play football. I refuse to watch the Pats when they play the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I think the UKIE has been pretty steadfast so far taking it through CNY...might be ok for far Western NY, but I've been so focused on wanting just one decent storm out here in ENY (heck, I'll take anything 3" or more) I haven't focused much on it other than that I'm on the wrong side of that one too. So back to current weather...is the EPS our only hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 GEFS Meh...still trending west. That new Canadian though is impressive, though. That's the best run for CNY we've seen so far. Would be nice if the 12Z Euro OP stopped trending west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I think the UKIE has been pretty steadfast so far taking it through CNY...might be ok for far Western NY, but I've been so focused on wanting just one decent storm out here in ENY (heck, I'll take anything 3" or more) I haven't focused much on it other than that I'm on the wrong side of that one too. FWIW I'm rooting for you guys. Epic awful winter there; not sure anyone has had it worse compared to climo this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 idk looks like it's to going to be a cutter? it's up to hr 84 on eurowx.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Meh...still trending west. That new Canadian though is impressive, though. That's the best run for CNY we've seen so far. Would be nice if the 12Z Euro OP stopped trending west this run. It will be more west I think. At this rate I hope it goes 500 miles west and gives us a nice SW flow behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Check out the GGEM you'll love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Another 50 mile shift east and were in the snow. It's still 5 days so will be lots of changes until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Another 50 mile shift east and were in the snow. It's still 5 days so will be lots of changes until then. Yep I'm thinking the GGEM has the right idea here but will see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Yep I'm thinking the GGEM has the right idea here but will see.. Like I said a few days ago, until that piece of energy gets sampled we will see lots of changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Where is the cold air? It's marginal across the board. This system is the one that brings it in and allows for LES chances late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 The piece of energy that directly results in this system is still 48 hours from coming onshore, once were able to add that to the data set we will get a much better idea of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Yep I'm thinking the GGEM has the right idea here but will see.. A less phased solution would be par for the course this winter, seems like theres almost always been wave spacing and phase issues. Of course this time it'll find a way to phase and cut lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Another 50 mile shift east and were in the snow. It's still 5 days so will be lots of changes until then. Looks like the 12Z Euro was pretty darned close to the 00Z run. Trend stalled...that's something! Sorry Chicago weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Good news is Euro didn't really phase this run. Bad news... the primary piece of energy in the south was still able to turn the trough negative in time to go west of the Apps again. If we can avoid the phasing aspect, just need that southern energy to track a little further east before going negative and we'd probably see a solution similar to the CMC and at least a large chunk of the forum would be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Something else that would help take this potentially east of the Apps would be if we could get that west coast ridge axis to setup just a tad more to the east... say INVOF Boise ID. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Nice visible satellite showing a fairly ice free Lake Erie and a thick snowpack in a narrow band southeast of Lake Huron. They must have put up some big numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Nice visible satellite showing a fairly ice free Lake Erie and a thick snowpack in a narrow band southeast of Lake Huron. They must have put up some big numbers. image.jpeg Buffalos snowiest March is only 32.8" back in 00-01. If the lake remains partially unfrozen and with the upcoming cold pattern right through March we may have a shot at that with the right set-up. Since by this time the lake is usually completely frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 We have the WPC on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 The Euro, GFS, UKIE vs GEM, NAVGEM, DGEX. Wonder who wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Good news is Euro didn't really phase this run. Bad news... the primary piece of energy in the south was still able to turn the trough negative in time to go west of the Apps again. If we can avoid the phasing aspect, just need that southern energy to track a little further east before going negative and we'd probably see a solution similar to the CMC and at least a large chunk of the forum would be in business. Nice analysis. Looks like one of the keys is actually interaction of that shortwave tracking across Minnesota into the Great Lakes on Tuesday night. Combination of the slower speed of the UL tracking across the mid-south and the faster/weaker Great Lakes shortwave allows for less interaction between the two, and I think even a bit lower heights & more confluence downstream over northern NE & SE Canada...which allows the Canadian model to do what it does. That was a key difference between the last two Euro runs. UL speed/track was pretty similar(though the upstream, phasing s/w was a bit actually a bit faster at 12Z)...there was less interaction with the lakes s/w, and the UL doesn't tilt negative as quickly. Lots of variables still at play here, and will continue to play with the solutions until we have a better idea of the speed and strength of all of the various waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 We have the WPC on our side. From the 12Z WPC medium range discussion... FOR THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH ERN CONUS SYSTEM... INDIVIDUAL MODELRUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BUTSEEM TO BE GRAVITATING TOWARD SOME GENERAL IDEAS IN PRINCIPLE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS THERE HAVE BEEN PRONOUNCED TRENDS TOWARDA STRONGER DEPICTION OF THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LVL ENERGYAMPLIFYING INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND VICINITY. THESE TRENDS SUPPORTSTRONGER SFC LOW PRES TRACKING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THEGENERAL AREA MS/AL/TN BY EARLY WED. TIMING OF NEWD PROGRESSION OFTHE DEEPENING SFC LOW THEREAFTER HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY...LEAVING THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN A TRACK WWDOF THE APLCHNS ON ITS WAY INTO ERN CANADA OR GIVE WAY TO MIDATLC-NEW ENGLAND COASTAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FCSTPROBLEM THAT REMAINS. RECENT TRENDS ALONG WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND00Z-06Z GFS/PARALLEL GFS AND 06Z GEFS MEAN AS WELL AS ALL UKMETRUNS FROM DAY 6 INWARD SEEM TO BE TILTING THE BALANCE OF HIGHERPROBABILITY TOWARD THE WRN SFC LOW TRACK. ON THE OTHER HAND THE00Z GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AS WELL AS 00Z CMC/NAVGEM STILLSUPPORT COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VOLATILITY/SPREAD OFGUIDANCE THUS FAR... AT THIS POINT IN TIME WOULD LIKE TO SEE ONEMORE 12-HOURLY CYCLE BEFORE FULLY COMMITTING TO A WRN SFC LOWTRACK. THIS LEADS TO A BLEND PREFERENCE THAT TRENDS FROM ANOPERATIONAL MODEL MAJORITY SOLN INTO EARLY WED THEN MORE TO THE00Z GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM EARLY THU ONWARD. THERESULTING BLEND ALLOWS FOR SOME LOWERING OF SFC PRESSURES W OF THEAPLCHNS THROUGH WED WHILE TRENDING TOWARD CONTINUITY THAT DEPICTSCOASTAL REDEVELOPMENT BY THU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 12z Euro ensembles came a decent bit west, definitely a consensus forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 12z Euro ensembles came a decent bit west, definitely a consensus forming. Sad trombone... Today's 12Z.... Versus yesterday's for 12Z... Versus todays GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Sad trombone... We're done out this way, at least central and western ny still have a chance. I've never witnessed anything like this.. I don't know if theres anybody north of like 37N that has less snow than I've had imby hah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 12z EPS Snowfall (through 18z Friday) ORD: 0.5" Toledo: 5" DTW: 5-6" YXU: 5-6" CLE: 5-6" BUF: 6" YYZ: 6.5-7.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 We're done out this way, at least central and western ny still have a chance. I've never witnessed anything like this.. I don't know if theres anybody north of like 37N that has less snow than I've had imby hah. With the March setup I think you can make up some quick ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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