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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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Being a snow lover this winter in central NY has been just like being a Bills fan and watching them play Brady the past 15 years.

I've reached the point with both that no matter how good the set-up looks, or the seeming inevitability of victory, I am certain a way will be found to lose.

 

It makes my physically ill to watch Brady play football. I refuse to watch the Pats when they play the Bills.

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I think the UKIE has been pretty steadfast so far taking it through CNY...might be ok for far Western NY, but I've been so focused on wanting just one decent storm out here in ENY (heck, I'll take anything 3" or more) I haven't focused much on it other than that I'm on the wrong side of that one too.

So back to current weather...is the EPS our only hope?

 

 

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I think the UKIE has been pretty steadfast so far taking it through CNY...might be ok for far Western NY, but I've been so focused on wanting just one decent storm out here in ENY (heck, I'll take anything 3" or more) I haven't focused much on it other than that I'm on the wrong side of that one too.

 

FWIW I'm rooting for you guys. Epic awful winter there; not sure anyone has had it worse compared to climo this year.

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Good news is Euro didn't really phase this run. Bad news... the primary piece of energy in the south was still able to turn the trough negative in time to go west of the Apps again. If we can avoid the phasing aspect, just need that southern energy to track a little further east before going negative and we'd probably see a solution similar to the CMC and at least a large chunk of the forum would be in business.

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Nice visible satellite showing a fairly ice free Lake Erie and a thick snowpack in a narrow band southeast of Lake Huron. They must have put up some big numbers.

attachicon.gifimage.jpeg

 

Buffalos snowiest March is only 32.8" back in 00-01. If the lake remains partially unfrozen and with the upcoming cold pattern right through March we may have a shot at that with the right set-up. Since by this time the lake is usually completely frozen.

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Good news is Euro didn't really phase this run. Bad news... the primary piece of energy in the south was still able to turn the trough negative in time to go west of the Apps again. If we can avoid the phasing aspect, just need that southern energy to track a little further east before going negative and we'd probably see a solution similar to the CMC and at least a large chunk of the forum would be in business.

 

Nice analysis. Looks like one of the keys is actually interaction of that shortwave tracking across Minnesota into the Great Lakes on Tuesday night. Combination of the slower speed of the UL tracking across the mid-south and the faster/weaker Great Lakes shortwave allows for less interaction between the two, and I think even a bit lower heights & more confluence downstream over northern NE & SE Canada...which allows the Canadian model to do what it does.

That was a key difference between the last two Euro runs. UL speed/track was pretty similar(though the upstream, phasing s/w was a bit actually a bit faster at 12Z)...there was less interaction with the lakes s/w, and the UL doesn't tilt negative as quickly. Lots of variables still at play here, and will continue to play with the solutions until we have a better idea of the speed and strength of all of the various waves.

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We have the WPC on our side. ^_^

 

 

From the 12Z WPC medium range discussion...

FOR THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH ERN CONUS SYSTEM... INDIVIDUAL MODELRUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BUTSEEM TO BE GRAVITATING TOWARD SOME GENERAL IDEAS IN PRINCIPLE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS THERE HAVE BEEN PRONOUNCED TRENDS TOWARDA STRONGER DEPICTION OF THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LVL ENERGYAMPLIFYING INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND VICINITY.  THESE TRENDS SUPPORTSTRONGER SFC LOW PRES TRACKING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THEGENERAL AREA MS/AL/TN BY EARLY WED.  TIMING OF NEWD PROGRESSION OFTHE DEEPENING SFC LOW THEREAFTER HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY...LEAVING THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN A TRACK WWDOF THE APLCHNS ON ITS WAY INTO ERN CANADA OR GIVE WAY TO MIDATLC-NEW ENGLAND COASTAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FCSTPROBLEM THAT REMAINS.  RECENT TRENDS ALONG WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND00Z-06Z GFS/PARALLEL GFS AND 06Z GEFS MEAN AS WELL AS ALL UKMETRUNS FROM DAY 6 INWARD SEEM TO BE TILTING THE BALANCE OF HIGHERPROBABILITY TOWARD THE WRN SFC LOW TRACK.  ON THE OTHER HAND THE00Z GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AS WELL AS 00Z CMC/NAVGEM STILLSUPPORT COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THE VOLATILITY/SPREAD OFGUIDANCE THUS FAR... AT THIS POINT IN TIME WOULD LIKE TO SEE ONEMORE 12-HOURLY CYCLE BEFORE FULLY COMMITTING TO A WRN SFC LOWTRACK.  THIS LEADS TO A BLEND PREFERENCE THAT TRENDS FROM ANOPERATIONAL MODEL MAJORITY SOLN INTO EARLY WED THEN MORE TO THE00Z GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM EARLY THU ONWARD.  THERESULTING BLEND ALLOWS FOR SOME LOWERING OF SFC PRESSURES W OF THEAPLCHNS THROUGH WED WHILE TRENDING TOWARD CONTINUITY THAT DEPICTSCOASTAL REDEVELOPMENT BY THU.
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