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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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Kbuf

THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD GETS CONSIDERABLY

MORE INTERESTING...AS WELL AS INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN. WHILE ALL

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL

TRACK NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE APPALACHIANS AND THE EAST

COAST...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT

CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK

AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE GREAT INFLUENCE

ON THE TIMING...INTENSITY...AND EVEN TYPE OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT

WE MAY EVENTUALLY RECEIVE. GIVEN ALL THIS AND THE STILL-DISTANT

TIME FRAME...FOR NOW FEEL IT BEST TO LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD OUR EXISTING

CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASED ON A CLIMATOLOGICALLY

MORE FAVORABLE COASTAL LOW TRACK...AND OFFERS A GENERAL CHANCE OF

SNOW FOR OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GIVEN AT LEAST A

CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TURNING OUT TO BE SIGNIFICANT...WILL ALSO

RETAIN THE CURRENT MENTION IN THE HWO...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE

EMPHASIZED THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA

REMAIN FAR FROM A LOCK AT THE PRESENT TIME

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY

FLOW OF COLDER AIR THEN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR THE

REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SEASONABLY COLDER

TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A GENERAL CHANCE OF BOTH SYNOPTICALLY-

DRIVEN AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF

NEXT WEEK

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Thanks for the update ADK, love another Met posting here! Do you live in the Adirondacks?

Happy to oblige! I lived just outside the blue line in Queensbury for a year, and spent lots of time up there til I moved out west. If I could do it again, I would never have left. Survived the '95 super derecho on Loon Lake. I still have family and friends all over NY, especially near Rochester, where I spent most of my first 23 years of life. I used to post much more during the 'eastern' days. Been around the crew since even before WWbb, when Randy, Ian, DT and maybe a couple dozen others were on mIRC chat in '97. Anyway I miss posting a bit and the weather out here is pretty dull, so maybe I'll keep this up ;)

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Lol 988mb eastern Kentucky to 972mb over Lake Ontario. Epic blizzard for Detroit. Beginning to think we need that first wave to have some energy with it given the mean trough axis, since we are lacking in the blocking and downstream confluence department.

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Happy to oblige! I lived just outside the blue line in Queensbury for a year, and spent lots of time up there til I moved out west. If I could do it again, I would never have left. Survived the '95 super derecho on Loon Lake. I still have family and friends all over NY, especially near Rochester, where I spent most of my first 23 years of life. I used to post much more during the 'eastern' days. Been around the crew since even before WWbb, when Randy, Ian, DT and maybe a couple dozen others were on mIRC chat in '97. Anyway I miss posting a bit and the weather out here is pretty dull, so maybe I'll keep this up ;)

I was out on Peck Lake just north of Gloversville in a cabin in the So. ADK's for the 95 Labor Day Derecho.  That was the most scary wx event I've been in.  Could see lightning you could read a book by for an hour ahead of time.  We all eventually got up around 2- 3 a.m. and just hoped a bunch of tall pines didn't come down on us, not to mention we were pretty sure a twister was about to air mail us to Kansas...

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Happy to oblige! I lived just outside the blue line in Queensbury for a year, and spent lots of time up there til I moved out west. If I could do it again, I would never have left. Survived the '95 super derecho on Loon Lake. I still have family and friends all over NY, especially near Rochester, where I spent most of my first 23 years of life. I used to post much more during the 'eastern' days. Been around the crew since even before WWbb, when Randy, Ian, DT and maybe a couple dozen others were on mIRC chat in '97. Anyway I miss posting a bit and the weather out here is pretty dull, so maybe I'll keep this up ;)

 

Awesome man! I joined at the end of the Eastern days but remember those posters for sure. Always love your input, and hope you keep it up!

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I was out on Peck Lake just north of Gloversville in a cabin in the So. ADK's for the 95 Labor Day Derecho.  That was the most scary wx event I've been in.  Could see lightning you could read a book by for an hour ahead of time.  We all eventually got up around 2- 3 a.m. and just hoped a bunch of tall pines didn't come down on us, not to mention we were pretty sure a twister was about to air mail us to Kansas...

 

1995jul15rpts.jpg

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Max wind gusts so far. Approaching 50 degrees~!

 

NEW YORK

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...
WELLSVILLE MUNICIPAL 39 1156 AM 2/19 ASOS

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
DUNKIRK AIRPORT 51 153 PM 2/19 ASOS

...ERIE COUNTY...
BUFFALO AIRPORT 39 854 PM 2/19 ASOS

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
FORT DRUM AIRFIELD 44 458 PM 2/19 AWOS
WATERTOWN AIRPORT 38 456 PM 2/19 ASOS

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL 39 354 PM 2/19 ASOS

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
OSWEGO 43 824 PM 2/19 NWLON

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No phasing on the 0z Canadian and has 2 waves again, but lesser impact to Upstate overall. Wave #1 was a dud that went off the NC coast with just some rain along the coastal plain. Stronger Wave #2 tracks from VA Beach to Nantucket on Thursday with decent snows from SC NY through E NY...

 

pratetypene.png

pratetypene.png

 

acc10_1snowne.png

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Is that 1995?  I distinctly remember it being a few hrs earlier...and the twister that went thru the State Fair Grounds in Syracuse.  Maybe I'm confusing it with 1998...that happens when you get "old"...

You're thinking of the Labor Day derecho in 1998. It passed through the Syracuse area between 12 and 1 AM. I believe all the damage was caused by straight line winds, some of which exceeded 100 mph. I remember the almost constant lightning that preceded the storm. I was fortunate in that the worst winds passed just south of Brewerton, in fact I never lost power.

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0z GEFS control mean has 2 waves - #1 stays off the coast and tracks near 40/70bm into the Gulf of ME with some snow across C and E NY. Wave #2 is a deep low tracking from PHL (977mb) to BTV (966mb) on Thursday with would-be blizzard conditions near and west of I-81. Spread looks fairly high though.

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0z GEFS control mean has 2 waves - #1 stays off the coast and tracks near 40/70bm into the Gulf of ME with some snow across C and E NY. Wave #2 is a deep low tracking from PHL (977mb) to BTV (966mb) on Thursday with would-be blizzard conditions near and west of I-81. Spread looks fairly high though.

 

Thanks for the info. Looks like the Euro is caving to the amped solution through 96. 

 

Never read anything written in Boston.  Their mouthbreathing accents give away their ignorance. Plus, it'll be a Blizzard for those dopes. ;)

 

lol

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Thanks for the info. Looks like the Euro is caving to the amped solution through 96. 

Yeah, the Euro had a weak 1st wave that looked like it was going to come up the coast but it basically sheared out. Big SLP coming up west of the Apps this run similar to GFS and UK. Not such good runs tonight, but still a long ways to go before this gets settled I suspect.

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