DeltaT13 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Couple lightning strikes in lower Michigan over the last hour. Quite the powerful albeit dry system skirting past to our North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The bgm low position graphic is funny. They must be thirsty for some action down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Couple lightning strikes in lower Michigan over the last hour. Quite the powerful albeit dry system skirting past to our North. Thered be tornadoes with this thing if it happened a couple months later lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 18z UK goes right over the area..I think that may be a little east from it's previous run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 18z extended NAM (aka DGEX) remains a big hit with a single storm out of the GOM Tues Night-Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Kbuf THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD GETS CONSIDERABLY MORE INTERESTING...AS WELL AS INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN. WHILE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE APPALACHIANS AND THE EAST COAST...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE GREAT INFLUENCE ON THE TIMING...INTENSITY...AND EVEN TYPE OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY RECEIVE. GIVEN ALL THIS AND THE STILL-DISTANT TIME FRAME...FOR NOW FEEL IT BEST TO LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASED ON A CLIMATOLOGICALLY MORE FAVORABLE COASTAL LOW TRACK...AND OFFERS A GENERAL CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GIVEN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TURNING OUT TO BE SIGNIFICANT...WILL ALSO RETAIN THE CURRENT MENTION IN THE HWO...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA REMAIN FAR FROM A LOCK AT THE PRESENT TIME FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR THEN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SEASONABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A GENERAL CHANCE OF BOTH SYNOPTICALLY- DRIVEN AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Follow-up snow total estimate from DGEX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Looks like the GFS is going to undergo nuclear phasing again this run. And well west again I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Thanks for the update ADK, love another Met posting here! Do you live in the Adirondacks? Happy to oblige! I lived just outside the blue line in Queensbury for a year, and spent lots of time up there til I moved out west. If I could do it again, I would never have left. Survived the '95 super derecho on Loon Lake. I still have family and friends all over NY, especially near Rochester, where I spent most of my first 23 years of life. I used to post much more during the 'eastern' days. Been around the crew since even before WWbb, when Randy, Ian, DT and maybe a couple dozen others were on mIRC chat in '97. Anyway I miss posting a bit and the weather out here is pretty dull, so maybe I'll keep this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Lol 988mb eastern Kentucky to 972mb over Lake Ontario. Epic blizzard for Detroit. Beginning to think we need that first wave to have some energy with it given the mean trough axis, since we are lacking in the blocking and downstream confluence department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 GFS in the UK camp with a single 972-967mb low through ROC and the SLV, respectively. Some decent lake-enhanced wrap-around snows across W & C NY in behind. Biggest headline would be the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Happy to oblige! I lived just outside the blue line in Queensbury for a year, and spent lots of time up there til I moved out west. If I could do it again, I would never have left. Survived the '95 super derecho on Loon Lake. I still have family and friends all over NY, especially near Rochester, where I spent most of my first 23 years of life. I used to post much more during the 'eastern' days. Been around the crew since even before WWbb, when Randy, Ian, DT and maybe a couple dozen others were on mIRC chat in '97. Anyway I miss posting a bit and the weather out here is pretty dull, so maybe I'll keep this up I was out on Peck Lake just north of Gloversville in a cabin in the So. ADK's for the 95 Labor Day Derecho. That was the most scary wx event I've been in. Could see lightning you could read a book by for an hour ahead of time. We all eventually got up around 2- 3 a.m. and just hoped a bunch of tall pines didn't come down on us, not to mention we were pretty sure a twister was about to air mail us to Kansas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 GFS actually had places near ROC reaching 60F just before the winds flipped to the NW lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Geeziz, put some effort into it guys (KBGM). Is that a NOGAPS track? Its over the f@cking Benchmark you clowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Happy to oblige! I lived just outside the blue line in Queensbury for a year, and spent lots of time up there til I moved out west. If I could do it again, I would never have left. Survived the '95 super derecho on Loon Lake. I still have family and friends all over NY, especially near Rochester, where I spent most of my first 23 years of life. I used to post much more during the 'eastern' days. Been around the crew since even before WWbb, when Randy, Ian, DT and maybe a couple dozen others were on mIRC chat in '97. Anyway I miss posting a bit and the weather out here is pretty dull, so maybe I'll keep this up Awesome man! I joined at the end of the Eastern days but remember those posters for sure. Always love your input, and hope you keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 I was out on Peck Lake just north of Gloversville in a cabin in the So. ADK's for the 95 Labor Day Derecho. That was the most scary wx event I've been in. Could see lightning you could read a book by for an hour ahead of time. We all eventually got up around 2- 3 a.m. and just hoped a bunch of tall pines didn't come down on us, not to mention we were pretty sure a twister was about to air mail us to Kansas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Max wind gusts so far. Approaching 50 degrees~! NEW YORK...ALLEGANY COUNTY...WELLSVILLE MUNICIPAL 39 1156 AM 2/19 ASOS...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...DUNKIRK AIRPORT 51 153 PM 2/19 ASOS...ERIE COUNTY...BUFFALO AIRPORT 39 854 PM 2/19 ASOS...JEFFERSON COUNTY...FORT DRUM AIRFIELD 44 458 PM 2/19 AWOSWATERTOWN AIRPORT 38 456 PM 2/19 ASOS...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL 39 354 PM 2/19 ASOS...OSWEGO COUNTY...OSWEGO 43 824 PM 2/19 NWLON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Need all that lake ice to melt. Some really good shots for lake effect/enhanced snow later this month into early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Is that 1995? I distinctly remember it being a few hrs earlier...and the twister that went thru the State Fair Grounds in Syracuse. Maybe I'm confusing it with 1998...that happens when you get "old"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Is that 1995? I distinctly remember it being a few hrs earlier...and the twister that went thru the State Fair Grounds in Syracuse. Maybe I'm confusing it with 1998...that happens when you get "old"... I believe its from 95 yeah. Not 100% sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Writeup for the complicated pattern with next weeks storm. http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/02/19/complicated-storm-setup-for-final-week-of-february/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 No phasing on the 0z Canadian and has 2 waves again, but lesser impact to Upstate overall. Wave #1 was a dud that went off the NC coast with just some rain along the coastal plain. Stronger Wave #2 tracks from VA Beach to Nantucket on Thursday with decent snows from SC NY through E NY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Is that 1995? I distinctly remember it being a few hrs earlier...and the twister that went thru the State Fair Grounds in Syracuse. Maybe I'm confusing it with 1998...that happens when you get "old"... You're thinking of the Labor Day derecho in 1998. It passed through the Syracuse area between 12 and 1 AM. I believe all the damage was caused by straight line winds, some of which exceeded 100 mph. I remember the almost constant lightning that preceded the storm. I was fortunate in that the worst winds passed just south of Brewerton, in fact I never lost power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Writeup for the complicated pattern with next weeks storm. http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/02/19/complicated-storm-setup-for-final-week-of-february/ Never read anything written in Boston. Their mouthbreathing accents give away their ignorance. Plus, it'll be a Blizzard for those dopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 0z GEFS control mean has 2 waves - #1 stays off the coast and tracks near 40/70bm into the Gulf of ME with some snow across C and E NY. Wave #2 is a deep low tracking from PHL (977mb) to BTV (966mb) on Thursday with would-be blizzard conditions near and west of I-81. Spread looks fairly high though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 0z GEFS control mean has 2 waves - #1 stays off the coast and tracks near 40/70bm into the Gulf of ME with some snow across C and E NY. Wave #2 is a deep low tracking from PHL (977mb) to BTV (966mb) on Thursday with would-be blizzard conditions near and west of I-81. Spread looks fairly high though. Thanks for the info. Looks like the Euro is caving to the amped solution through 96. Never read anything written in Boston. Their mouthbreathing accents give away their ignorance. Plus, it'll be a Blizzard for those dopes. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Going to be a rainer? UKIE is king? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Thanks for the info. Looks like the Euro is caving to the amped solution through 96. Yeah, the Euro had a weak 1st wave that looked like it was going to come up the coast but it basically sheared out. Big SLP coming up west of the Apps this run similar to GFS and UK. Not such good runs tonight, but still a long ways to go before this gets settled I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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