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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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yes sir. 8" last storm on Friday and 6.4" in the storm yesterday 25.4" seasonal total. Think that's ahead of KBUF and got a few more inches coming tomorrow...

 

KBUF is at 27.6", 30" below normal for the date. Not bad you surpassed Westerlys annual snowfall average already.

 

I don't think strong El Ninos have as much of an impact on mid atlantic/northeast in comparison to the great lakes who rely upon cold air to get LES/lake enhanced snow all season. Without the cold air were relying upon purely synoptic and thats rare until we hit mid Feb into March based on Climo.

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KBUF is at 27.6", 30" below normal for the date. Not bad you surpassed Westerlys annual snowfall average already.

I don't think strong El Ninos have as much of an impact on mid atlantic/northeast in comparison to the great lakes who rely upon cold air to get LES/lake enhanced snow all season. Without the cold air were relying upon purely synoptic and thats rare until we hit mid Feb into March based on Climo.

very true, and I live in Warwick,RI now about 35 miles NE of Westerly which I believe averages about 5-10" more snow then Westerly but still putrid compared to anywhere in WNY.
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very true, and I live in Warwick,RI now about 35 miles NE of Westerly which I believe averages about 5-10" more snow then Westerly but still putrid compared to anywhere in WNY.

 

Either way you've been doing great over there for the 2 years you've been there. The snow follows you, now bring it back to WNY. ^_^

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Will be really close call if we can get the winds to a SW direction ahead of the arctic front. If we could we could be looking at Warning criteria snows across Erie county.

 

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...THE CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THIS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL
PROVIDE A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED TO
BRIEFLY PICK UP IN A WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TO INTENSIFY EAST OF THE LAKES JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
POSSIBLY PRODUCING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS...THEN MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND BREAK APART INTO MULTIPLE BANDS SOUTH OF THE LAKES AS BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY. THE BOUNDARY ITSELF COULD ALSO PRODUCE
A DECENT BURST OF SNOW.

 

namconus_ref_us_23.png

 

I_nw_EST_2016020912_079.png

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GREATEST

SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM

NORTHEASTERN WAYNE ACROSS NORTHERN CAYUGA TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO

COUNTIES.

 

 

EXPECT DAY AND A HALF STORM TOTALS TO PUSH 10 INCHES IN SOME

AREAS...WHICH PROMPTED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. THIS AREA WILL

HAVE TO BE MONITORED WITH A CHANCE THAT THE BAND WILL DEVELOP EARLY

OR BECOME MORE INTENSE. ALSO...MODEL GUIDANCE TYPICALLY STRUGGLES IN

A NORTHWEST FLOW.

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Euro control for next week is 998 over ocean city md then 992 over western mass..Gfs=Nada

 

If we can get the NS to catch the SS, watch out..

 

 

 

 

THE CORE OF THE COLD BEGINS TO MOVE OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
RAPID WARM-UP TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF
DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH THE GFS FASTER/COLDER/WEAKER WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL USE A BLEND...WITH A BROAD PERIOD OF CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES. IT WILL
PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...HOWEVER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES
SOME RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE.
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Will be really close call if we can get the winds to a SW direction ahead of the arctic front. If we could we could be looking at Warning criteria snows across Erie county.

 

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...THE CROSS THE

REGION FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THIS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL

PROVIDE A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED TO

BRIEFLY PICK UP IN A WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW

TO INTENSIFY EAST OF THE LAKES JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT

POSSIBLY PRODUCING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS...THEN MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT

AND BREAK APART INTO MULTIPLE BANDS SOUTH OF THE LAKES AS BOUNDARY

LAYER FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY. THE BOUNDARY ITSELF COULD ALSO PRODUCE

A DECENT BURST OF SNOW.

 

namconus_ref_us_23.png

 

I_nw_EST_2016020912_079.png

I just got done looking at the 0z nam bufkit data and the 4km one backs those winds all the way to 248 at the end of the run, the winds stay within 255 on the lower res nam..

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I just got done looking at the 0z nam bufkit data and the 4km one backs those winds all the way to 248 at the end of the run, the winds stay within 255 on the lower res nam..

 

Yep, the GGEM still has it as well. That would be a really strong band if it gets to Buf. I just hope it doesn't stall in Eden like it did last time and dump 2 feet there.

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I don't care if the air is dry. Rochester will do ok once the winds die down and go north. South shore can't be forecast. Pattern recognition is more important and tea kettle should develop along entire south shore. Ontario is very warm for this historic air mass. Ratios of 30:1. Wouldn't be surprised to see warning criteria snowfall.

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I don't care if the air is dry. Rochester will do ok once the winds die down and go north. South shore can't be forecast. Pattern recognition is more important and tea kettle should develop along entire south shore. Ontario is very warm for this historic air mass. Ratios of 30:1. Wouldn't be surprised to see warning criteria snowfall.

hrrr_ref_toronto_9.png

hrrr_ref_toronto_10.png

hrrr_ref_toronto_12.png

hrrr_ref_toronto_13.png

hrrr_ref_toronto_14.png

hrrr_ref_toronto_15.png

hrrr_ref_toronto_16.png

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That LP is well visualized on radar. Currently over western Lake Ontario. Ayuud, my comments on snow for south shore were regarding the later period. Saturday and Sunday. The early les won't give the south shore much. We should get an inch or two from this current feature.

The south shore should do well with a light north wind and extreme cold with insane instability despite the dry air. No model will depict this well. Tea kettle stuff. Low impact but highly interesting to us in Kroc.

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