wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 LES Advisory's out for most S/E of ontario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 When that arctic front comes through Friday it could get interesting. Most models back winds to WSW for a decent period of time. If enough backing we could be looking at some much bigger totals here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 yes sir. 8" last storm on Friday and 6.4" in the storm yesterday 25.4" seasonal total. Think that's ahead of KBUF and got a few more inches coming tomorrow... KBUF is at 27.6", 30" below normal for the date. Not bad you surpassed Westerlys annual snowfall average already. I don't think strong El Ninos have as much of an impact on mid atlantic/northeast in comparison to the great lakes who rely upon cold air to get LES/lake enhanced snow all season. Without the cold air were relying upon purely synoptic and thats rare until we hit mid Feb into March based on Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Heading down to Holiday this weekend and I think they get hit pretty big with this event. Might stop by the jackpot Perrysburg on the way to see how much they get as they will also be in the sweet spot. 2' totals there I bet by early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 This is just through Thurs night. I think Friday brings the biggest totals TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 KBUF is at 27.6", 30" below normal for the date. Not bad you surpassed Westerlys annual snowfall average already. I don't think strong El Ninos have as much of an impact on mid atlantic/northeast in comparison to the great lakes who rely upon cold air to get LES/lake enhanced snow all season. Without the cold air were relying upon purely synoptic and thats rare until we hit mid Feb into March based on Climo. very true, and I live in Warwick,RI now about 35 miles NE of Westerly which I believe averages about 5-10" more snow then Westerly but still putrid compared to anywhere in WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 very true, and I live in Warwick,RI now about 35 miles NE of Westerly which I believe averages about 5-10" more snow then Westerly but still putrid compared to anywhere in WNY. Either way you've been doing great over there for the 2 years you've been there. The snow follows you, now bring it back to WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Will be really close call if we can get the winds to a SW direction ahead of the arctic front. If we could we could be looking at Warning criteria snows across Erie county. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...THE CROSS THEREGION FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THIS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILLPROVIDE A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED TOBRIEFLY PICK UP IN A WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOWTO INTENSIFY EAST OF THE LAKES JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONTPOSSIBLY PRODUCING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS...THEN MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHTAND BREAK APART INTO MULTIPLE BANDS SOUTH OF THE LAKES AS BOUNDARYLAYER FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY. THE BOUNDARY ITSELF COULD ALSO PRODUCEA DECENT BURST OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Fulton/Liverpool/Syracuse areas will really cash in on this set-up. 2' totals by early next week in the sweet spots if we can get some upstream connection help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 GREATESTSNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NORTHEASTERN WAYNE ACROSS NORTHERN CAYUGA TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES. EXPECT DAY AND A HALF STORM TOTALS TO PUSH 10 INCHES IN SOMEAREAS...WHICH PROMPTED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED WITH A CHANCE THAT THE BAND WILL DEVELOP EARLY OR BECOME MORE INTENSE. ALSO...MODEL GUIDANCE TYPICALLY STRUGGLES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Lake Erie is 37 degrees today, it breaks the old record of 36. Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Some awesome flakes right now..(clay) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 https://vimeo.com/154792245 Turned wicked really fast in West Seneca. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nice vid steve!! Latest Map from buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro control for next week is 998 over ocean city md then 992 over western mass..Gfs=Nada If we can get the NS to catch the SS, watch out.. THE CORE OF THE COLD BEGINS TO MOVE OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ARAPID WARM-UP TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWFDIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH THE GFS FASTER/COLDER/WEAKER WITH THE NEXTSYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL USE A BLEND...WITH A BROAD PERIOD OF CHANCEPOPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES. IT WILLPROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...HOWEVER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIESSOME RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro ensembles barking big time..Almost all (minus a few) show some kind of inland storm, bunch of cutters and app runners thrown in for good measure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Light snow has started, radar looks good for the next few hours. Hopefully pick up a few inches overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Should get some snow over you Ayuud soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Nice burst of snow here for the last 15 minutes, wind has picked up quite a bit too. So this is what winter looks like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Should get some snow over you Ayuud soon. Damm that's one nice band setting up on a ssw flow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Will be really close call if we can get the winds to a SW direction ahead of the arctic front. If we could we could be looking at Warning criteria snows across Erie county. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...THE CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THIS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PICK UP IN A WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO INTENSIFY EAST OF THE LAKES JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT POSSIBLY PRODUCING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS...THEN MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BREAK APART INTO MULTIPLE BANDS SOUTH OF THE LAKES AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY. THE BOUNDARY ITSELF COULD ALSO PRODUCE A DECENT BURST OF SNOW. I just got done looking at the 0z nam bufkit data and the 4km one backs those winds all the way to 248 at the end of the run, the winds stay within 255 on the lower res nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 I just got done looking at the 0z nam bufkit data and the 4km one backs those winds all the way to 248 at the end of the run, the winds stay within 255 on the lower res nam.. Yep, the GGEM still has it as well. That would be a really strong band if it gets to Buf. I just hope it doesn't stall in Eden like it did last time and dump 2 feet there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 RGEM/GGEM have about 0.75" of QPF over Oswego county by hour 48hrs. I have no other reason to be optimistic, but I really would like to see more than 2" of snow at a time at one point this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Yep, the GGEM still has it as well. That would be a really strong band if it gets to Buf. I just hope it doesn't stall in Eden like it did last time and dump 2 feet there. The WRF is picking up on it at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I don't care if the air is dry. Rochester will do ok once the winds die down and go north. South shore can't be forecast. Pattern recognition is more important and tea kettle should develop along entire south shore. Ontario is very warm for this historic air mass. Ratios of 30:1. Wouldn't be surprised to see warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I don't care if the air is dry. Rochester will do ok once the winds die down and go north. South shore can't be forecast. Pattern recognition is more important and tea kettle should develop along entire south shore. Ontario is very warm for this historic air mass. Ratios of 30:1. Wouldn't be surprised to see warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I have seen the NWS bring up the rgem several times during LES events.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Here she comes, I bet some whiteout conditions in that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 That LP is well visualized on radar. Currently over western Lake Ontario. Ayuud, my comments on snow for south shore were regarding the later period. Saturday and Sunday. The early les won't give the south shore much. We should get an inch or two from this current feature. The south shore should do well with a light north wind and extreme cold with insane instability despite the dry air. No model will depict this well. Tea kettle stuff. Low impact but highly interesting to us in Kroc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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