OSUmetstud Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Would be funny if the UKIE won. it wouldn't be crazy surprising. There's a lack of blocking...and the ukmet is second to the euro in verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 it wouldn't be crazy surprising. There's a lack of blocking...and the ukmet is second to the euro in verification. I didn't know that. crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think the next storm (next Tue/Wed) we should name "Brian"....just for the love of Gravestone's enigma!! Hey Now! It should only be named after me if it dumps 2 feet of Blizzardo on I-95... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 The GFS and CMC are similar to there 0z runs with main hits across central/eastern NY. Not to much QPF as its a strung out mess. The UKIE is Pitts/Cleveland/Buffalo track. The beat goes on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 In verificiation and accuracy terms isn't it Euro, GFS, UKIE, GEM, NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The GFS and CMC are similar to there 0z runs with main hits across central/eastern NY. Not to much QPF as its a strung out mess. The UKIE is Pitts/Cleveland/Buffalo track. The beat goes on... 2 waves vs. 1 on the uk...that's the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I'm flying in Thursday so I'm not sure I want any of this to happen anyway lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 One thing about GFS runs...looks pretty cold next 10 days, regardless what happens with next week's possible storm...which looks very "unphased" on the latest 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro incomplete phase. 992 over NYC. CNY gets good thump 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 2 storms on the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z Euro also going the 2-wave route, for now. The 2nd wave runs up the HRV per the NE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Another round of models, another mish mash of outcomes. We could get anything from a cutter to a strung-out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 U can see the double barrel low out ahead of the main system..Wb snowmaps look nice for almost all of cny/wny between both waves.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z Euro also going the 2-wave route, for now. The 2nd wave runs up the HRV per the NE forum. Yeah wave 2 really crushes SYR per the euro. What a convoluted setup.. multiple northern and southern stream waves to resolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 The gefs mean has the low over Cleveland... Crazy spread! I'll take the euro path as most accurate right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z Euro goes from 988 near Yonkers to 984 in far NEK Vermont. Pretty pronounced mid and upper-level features. H5 & H7 low tracks up I-81. Might worry about sleet issues with that just east of SYR, but yeah they are probably the sweet spot. ROC gets a moderate (think 6-10") storm with that, BUF gets a few inches. That is just the 2nd wave though. 1st wave actually looks pretty rich, nice WAA thump, and would be more of a widespread 6-10" storm for most of NY State and much of PA too. This will be a very interesting event to watch unfold over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Snowfall totals from the 12z euro: BUF: 1.3" from 1st event and another 11.8" from 12z Wed-12z Sat. ROC: 1" from 1st event and another 14" from 12z Wed-12z Sat. SYR:1" from 1st event and another 17.2" from 12z Wed-12z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 U can see the double barrel low out ahead of the main system..Wb snowmaps look nice for almost all of cny/wny between both waves.. post-16-1455906111_thumb.png Yeah, just saw the final totals from the run. The 6" line toes the HR up to about GFL and then goes east into VT from there. Double digits everywhere else from NYS Route 8 west. The general gist of limited phasing seen on the operational 12z runs (minus the UK) is probably the best case solution for the benefit of the forum as a whole, but unfortunately its still 120+ hours out and some of the key components aren't even close to being "on the field" yet until early Monday. Thus, would expect the significant variability to continue over the course of the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z Euro goes from 988 near Yonkers to 984 in far NEK Vermont. Pretty pronounced mid and upper-level features. H5 & H7 low tracks up I-81. Might worry about sleet issues with that just east of SYR, but yeah they are probably the sweet spot. ROC gets a moderate (think 6-10") storm with that, BUF gets a few inches. That is just the 2nd wave though. 1st wave actually looks pretty rich, nice WAA thump, and would be more of a widespread 6-10" storm for most of NY State and much of PA too. This will be a very interesting event to watch unfold over the next several days. Thanks for the update ADK, love another Met posting here! Do you live in the Adirondacks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yeah, just saw the final totals from the run. The 6" line toes the HR up to about GFL and then goes east into VT from there. Double digits everywhere else from NYS Route 8 west. The general gist of limited phasing seen on the operational 12z runs (minus the UK) is probably the best case solution for the benefit of the forum as a whole, but unfortunately its still 120+ hours out and some of the key components aren't even close to being "on the field" yet until early Monday. Thus, would expect there to be continued variability yet to come over the course of the next several days. Another new poster! This place is actually turning active, about time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 This is actually a really good set-up for our region. The battlezone between those highs is awesome. 12z GEFS Mean at H5: Low locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 EPS mean runs from DC to NYC to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Probably about the best you can ask for in a 6 day ensemble mean...0.5-1" qpf as snow across nearly all of New York State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It'll change significantly between now and then, but I'd take that at this point. A low right over Cape Cod would be perfect... quote name="OSUmetstud" post="4006812" timestamp="1455912943"]EPS mean runs from DC to NYC to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Probably about the best you can ask for in a 6 day ensemble mean...0.5-1" qpf as snow across nearly all of New York State. The pattern after that is great too. The clipper train is the best pattern here. Lake effect/lake enhanced snow for weeks after next weeks system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro Parallel has a foot of snow across Michigan and hits the SE burbs of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro Parallel has a foot of snow across Michigan and hits the SE burbs of Chicago. And the GFS follows suit. Made sense with the GEFS so NW of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 I don't think we will have a handle on this until Monday evening runs when that piece of energy gets on shore. You can see on latest GFS how it phases with the northern piece. Thus we see the cyclogenesis and an amped powerful system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I don't have a good feeling about the 0Z runs tonight. I think the northwest trend is gaining momentum. If the Euro caves I think we're toast (literally and figuratively, lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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