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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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12z Euro goes from 988 near Yonkers to 984 in far NEK Vermont. Pretty pronounced mid and upper-level features. H5 & H7 low tracks up I-81. Might worry about sleet issues with that just east of SYR, but yeah they are probably the sweet spot. ROC gets a moderate (think 6-10") storm with that, BUF gets a few inches. That is just the 2nd wave though. 1st wave actually looks pretty rich, nice WAA thump, and would be more of a widespread 6-10" storm for most of NY State and much of PA too. This will be a very interesting event to watch unfold over the next several days. 

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U can see the double barrel low out ahead of the main system..Wb snowmaps look nice for almost all of cny/wny between both waves..

 

attachicon.gifpost-16-1455906111_thumb.png

 

Yeah, just saw the final totals from the run. The 6" line toes the HR up to about GFL and then goes east into VT from there. Double digits everywhere else from NYS Route 8 west.

 

The general gist of limited phasing seen on the operational 12z runs (minus the UK) is probably the best case solution for the benefit of the forum as a whole, but unfortunately its still 120+ hours out and some of the key components aren't even close to being "on the field" yet until early Monday. Thus, would expect the significant variability to continue over the course of the next several days.

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12z Euro goes from 988 near Yonkers to 984 in far NEK Vermont. Pretty pronounced mid and upper-level features. H5 & H7 low tracks up I-81. Might worry about sleet issues with that just east of SYR, but yeah they are probably the sweet spot. ROC gets a moderate (think 6-10") storm with that, BUF gets a few inches. That is just the 2nd wave though. 1st wave actually looks pretty rich, nice WAA thump, and would be more of a widespread 6-10" storm for most of NY State and much of PA too. This will be a very interesting event to watch unfold over the next several days. 

 

Thanks for the update ADK, love another Met posting here! Do you live in the Adirondacks?

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Yeah, just saw the final totals from the run. The 6" line toes the HR up to about GFL and then goes east into VT from there. Double digits everywhere else from NYS Route 8 west.

 

The general gist of limited phasing seen on the operational 12z runs (minus the UK) is probably the best case solution for the benefit of the forum as a whole, but unfortunately its still 120+ hours out and some of the key components aren't even close to being "on the field" yet until early Monday. Thus, would expect there to be continued variability yet to come over the course of the next several days.

 

Another new poster! This place is actually turning active, about time!

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