ADKwx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Did Euro show snow for the Sunday night/Monday event? Can't see at work but the low passes pretty close to us. Everything further south. Think we can stick a fork in that one. At least it's south, which means, colder, and maybe some lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 Think we can stick a fork in that one. At least it's south, which means, colder, and maybe some lake effect. To early, the EPS spread was insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Anyone notice the MAV/MEX guidance going for 50s on Saturday? Maybe with some sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 slp day 6.5.... huge spread but two camps seem to be setting up, the coastal and the western slopes of the apps. The mean snowfall is not that impressive, probably due to those lows in the far west camp which of course would cause precip type issues. Attached Images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Yea, they are all over the place..A decent amount of cutters too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 To early, the EPS spread was insane. I guess...shortwave is still over EPac, coming through my neck of the woods tomorrow. Edit: I am talking about the Sunday night thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The shortwave(s) with the Wednesday system will not reach British Columbia/Washington until Monday. Lots of model runs between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 I guess...shortwave is still over EPac, coming through my neck of the woods tomorrow. Edit: I am talking about the Sunday night thing... Oh okay, Yeah I agree with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Canadian is the only model that throws us a bone right now, and not much at that..The euro and euro control runs are south..(sun night/mon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Wow. Talk about not having a clue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Wow. Talk about not having a clue? Very typical 6 days out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Very typical 6 days out..... Lots of improvements in model performance over the past couple of decades, and lots of money thrown into the system to improve computing power & speed. Still doesn't change the fact that we have little data for good initialization over the oceans (and maybe some less than perfect equations to start with, but that's another topic). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 30" or so. Feb 82. Wasn't it Feb 84? The leap year storm 28.1" - 2 day total at KBUF. Then before that the 1936 St Pats Day storm dropped 19.0" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Wasn't it Feb 84? The leap year storm 28.1" - 2 day total at KBUF. Then before that the 1936 St Pats Day storm dropped 19.0" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I might be wrong. It's hard to double check with BUF dismantling it's local climate data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 yea, steve, that's correct. Got the year wrong lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I might be wrong. It's hard to double check with BUF dismantling it's local climate data. Had to go and reference the "bible" to fact check... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Had to go and reference the "bible" to fact check... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Where do you gather your info from? I've been researching synoptic snows for awhile in Buffalo and it's impossible to find. Can you PM me all the links you have? I plan to put together a slideshow of the top 20 LES events and top 10 synoptic events this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Also GFS goes double barreled low? The Model Mayhem continues! If anything it gives us something to follow no matter the result, its fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 February and March are definitely the months for our biggest synoptic snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 MENTIONED ABOVE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST NEXT WED/THU. INADDITION 1035 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MARITIMES TO NEWFOUNDLAND WILLSUPPLY INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ON THE FRONT END. STILL A LONG WAYSOFF BUT A HIGH RISK FOR A HEAVY QPF EVENT GIVEN SUBTROPICALCONNECTION. HOWEVER LOW PROB ON THERMAL PROFILES GIVEN UNCERTAINTYON AMPLITUDE AND POSITION OF MEAN TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM MEAN RIDGE.A SLIGHT HEDGE TOWARD A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT FOR THE COAST AND SNOW TOICE INLAND FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:1)AIRMASS ON THE FRONT END IS NOT ANOMALOUSLY COLD...THUS SOMEWHATEASIER TO ERODE COLD AIR ESPECIALLY ALOFT2) GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERNATLC FAVORS A MORE WESTWARD SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TRACK /NOT OUT TOSEA/ OVER OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MID LEVELWARM LAYER TRACKING FARTHER NORTH.SO ONCE AGAIN A VERY PRELIMINARY FIRST CUT WOULD SUGGEST SNOW TORAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH SNOW TO ICE INLAND. COULD BE SIGNIFICANTGIVEN POTENTIAL QPF WITH SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Well that's in a better direction. But man these swings. Just shows volatility with players on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 It doesn't fully close off the low, kind of a spread out mess still. I'm thinking one of two camps. It either stays an unorganized cluster which slides it southeast with very little snow, or it turns into something much bigger and rides up the Apps. Similar to the last storm, but stronger and more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 I hope the warmup the next few days is really warm. Look at that AO coming. Lake effect snow late Feb/March! That dip in the AO from Jan 1st to the 16th was when we had several LES events across the snowbelts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 That -12 low and single digit high really did a number on the lake. Should be lots of open water by monday with 3 days in the 40s with high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That's what ukie was showing. When does that new run come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 That's what ukie was showing. When does that new run come out? It's not out yet. The GFS ensembles had 3 runs that would give us rain, the spread is absolutely insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ya know looking at that gfs run looks almost identical to last storm only less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Again this would favor cutting as described in the forecast discussion earlier. The PNA ridge is far west, the SNE folks want it further east. The battleground is between Chicago and the East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Where do you gather your info from? I've been researching synoptic snows for awhile in Buffalo and it's impossible to find. Can you PM me all the links you have? I plan to put together a slideshow of the top 20 LES events and top 10 synoptic events this summer. You don't have this book? Best $15 you can spend. More info on Buffalo snow than you could ever find in the Internet. It has scans of old newspaper all the way back to the early 1800s. It's current through 2011. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Hey Nick triple phaser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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