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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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Did Euro show snow for the Sunday night/Monday event? Can't see at work but the low passes pretty close to us.

 

 

Everything further south.

 

 

Think we can stick a fork in that one. At least it's south, which means, colder, and maybe some lake effect. 

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Very typical 6 days out.....

 

Lots of improvements in model performance over the past couple of decades, and lots of money thrown into the system to improve computing power & speed. Still doesn't change the fact that we have little data for good initialization over the oceans (and maybe some less than perfect equations to start with, but that's another topic). 

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Had to go and reference the "bible" to fact check... e88b173a82fcd68c19f9f6c4b1f8551a.jpg

a6886838d60de314c1315d1649314b80.jpg

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Where do you gather your info from? I've been researching synoptic snows for awhile in Buffalo and it's impossible to find. Can you PM me all the links you have? I plan to put together a slideshow of the top 20 LES events and top 10 synoptic events this summer.

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MENTIONED ABOVE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH A

SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST NEXT WED/THU. IN
ADDITION 1035 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MARITIMES TO NEWFOUNDLAND WILL
SUPPLY INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ON THE FRONT END. STILL A LONG WAYS
OFF BUT A HIGH RISK FOR A HEAVY QPF EVENT GIVEN SUBTROPICAL
CONNECTION. HOWEVER LOW PROB ON THERMAL PROFILES GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
ON AMPLITUDE AND POSITION OF MEAN TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM MEAN RIDGE.
A SLIGHT HEDGE TOWARD A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT FOR THE COAST AND SNOW TO
ICE INLAND FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:

1)AIRMASS ON THE FRONT END IS NOT ANOMALOUSLY COLD...THUS SOMEWHAT
EASIER TO ERODE COLD AIR ESPECIALLY ALOFT

2) GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC FAVORS A MORE WESTWARD SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TRACK /NOT OUT TO
SEA/ OVER OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MID LEVEL
WARM LAYER TRACKING FARTHER NORTH.

SO ONCE AGAIN A VERY PRELIMINARY FIRST CUT WOULD SUGGEST SNOW TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH SNOW TO ICE INLAND. COULD BE SIGNIFICANT
GIVEN POTENTIAL QPF WITH SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION.

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It doesn't fully close off the low, kind of a spread out mess still.

 

I'm thinking one of two camps.  It either stays an unorganized cluster which slides it southeast with very little snow, or it turns into something much bigger and rides up the Apps. Similar to the last storm, but stronger and more QPF.

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Where do you gather your info from? I've been researching synoptic snows for awhile in Buffalo and it's impossible to find. Can you PM me all the links you have? I plan to put together a slideshow of the top 20 LES events and top 10 synoptic events this summer.

You don't have this book? Best $15 you can spend. More info on Buffalo snow than you could ever find in the Internet. It has scans of old newspaper all the way back to the early 1800s. It's current through 2011.ada2da9c9c8f10b2b3328f07929865c4.jpg

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