tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Low over Knoxville tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I posted the same image a couple pages back and look at the progress the critical thicknesses made already. They moved a considerable amount in a couple hrs but it will halt somewhere in CNY-NCNY so it'll be interesting to see where this starts to pivot at is the big question. Whoever is just to the N-NNW of the pivot point look out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 GFS crushes ROC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Looks like a bit less qpf on the Goofus for roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Looks like a bit less qpf on the Goofus for roc Yep, almost identical to 18z.....850 0 line is about 15 miles further east this run throughout the event...fwiw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Seems to be quite a bit more of the heavy qpf behind the 0C 850 isotherm this go around on the 00z NAM...something is going on....I think jackpots will be east of ROC....JMHO....and JUST west of SYR.... I have been observing same. fwiw and maybe I'm wish casting, I think SYR will be closer to jackpot than we might have thought. ROC to Auburn IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=284628 Canadian hi res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Well atleast no mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 would love to park a 1040 HP right over ME now!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 00Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Dave I like the 5 Mile wide stripes of 24 inches on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Gfs is so goofy. Love how it shows nothing in Oswego but 10 inches on either side. That model is bad for short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Seems to be quite a bit more of the heavy qpf behind the 0C 850 isotherm this go around on the 00z NAM...something is going on....I think jackpots will be east of ROC....JMHO....and JUST west of SYR.... Technically I'm west of SYR, what do I win? Re: RGEM/Sfc. Low track... it's dramatically east compared to the 12z. Essentially on the other side of the mountains! Originally the 18z had that double barrel feature but it seems to have lost that. The HRRR on the other hand has been pretty consistent driving the low straight up the Apps. I guess my username is fitting here! 00Z GFS Nice dome over Oswego Co. Baby step back east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yep, almost identical to 18z.....850 0 line is about 15 miles further east this run throughout the event...fwiw... Look at the 1000-850 THK line at 18 hrs and the qpf on GFS...LOL, gonna be a close call near KSYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Hey everyone, back from holiday valley! I think this storm is worthy of its own thread. Going to post one in a little bit with latest guidance. All in all it looks great for most of this forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=284628 Canadian hi res That map has almost no accum for KBGM. Pretty sure that's busted already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Huge qpf at 21 hrs over I-81 with 1000-850 THK line just east...game on for CNY per 00Z GooFuS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 GFS continues to press eastward and if it ticks a bit more 06Z, KBUF may really be completely left out! I would think you'd be okay, prob just mostly light snow when you hit it. Just so long as you drive smart. And so long as you're okay with seeing a few inches, followed by a bunch of rain, then another inch or two. Definitely not worth it but after seeing the models ticking East with each subsequent runs, I weenied my way into thinking we'd be getting more snow, lol, then my wife got a hold of me and there went that idea, lol! I do however thing the cuse will be ending up with quite a bit more than ppl think even with a changeover as I think the Def band is gonna be enough to get them to at least warning snows if not more but we'll see I guess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 GFS crushes ROC.... Yep it sure does!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Looks like a bit less qpf on the Goofus for roc ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Huge qpf at 21 hrs over I-81 with 1000-850 THK line just east...game on for CNY per 00Z GooFuS You must be talking about this timeframe?? This is why I think the cuse is going to be surprised at what ends up being their total, IMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 That map has almost no accum for KBGM. Pretty sure that's busted already. Ryan Maue better tweek his precious maps as they are about as accurate as I am in a game of darts!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Ryan Maue better tweek his precious maps as they are about as accurate as I am in a game of darts!! I haven't checked Maue or his buddies at wxbell for this storm. I've had too much good no on to check every prog. Syr still goes over to slop and rain so IMO something extraordinary would have to happen to make this something other than a typical southern New England "Blizzard" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Post here going forward for this event. Anything else not related to this storm can continue in this thread. Also please no more arguing about who is going to jackpot and arguing about storm tracks or I may just have to ask an admin that Upstate needs a moderator. This is the only sub-forum that doesn't have one because we have a bunch of great people in here! =) Also feel free to post other model pics if you wish, it will be interesting to see which one wins! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47886-winter-storm-upstate-ny-215-216/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I haven't checked Maue or his buddies at wxbell for this storm. I've had too much good no on to check every prog. Syr still goes over to slop and rain so IMO something extraordinary would have to happen to make this something other than a typical southern New England "Blizzard" LOL!! You sure have it in for those souls!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Everyone should remember these models are just that...models...not perfect or reality. Just science's best efforts. And remember that a hell of a lot of engineering, science, coding, and computational prowess goes into them. A lot better than 20-30 years ago. Anyone who's studied or worked with advanced fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and computer science can appreciate the immense complexity. not to mention the electrical engineering involved in making it all work so meteorologists can rip and read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 LOL!! You sure have it in for those souls!! Screw anyone under 30 down there. I spent the better part of two decades down there with nothing but sh*tshows for winter storms. The younger ones need to experience real pain. Yes I'm a sadistic S.O.B.And don't get me going on NWS's overuse of watered down Blizzard criteria down there. It's a complete embarrassment to standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 I haven't checked Maue or his buddies at wxbell for this storm. I've had too much good no on to check every prog. Syr still goes over to slop and rain so IMO something extraordinary would have to happen to make this something other than a typical southern New England "Blizzard" I don't know man, some of those videos in Nemo and Juno from Mass were pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I don't know man, some of those videos in Nemo and Juno from Mass were pretty incredible. Do not ever use TWC storm names or I'll make a voodoo doll of you and stick sewing needle pins through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 This about sums it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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