CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Follow the blue-850mb- and the yellow-700mb- as that's where the change over line should be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 This is the paper my professor wrote on the storm. Id like to see if I could get a copy of it. Rochette, S. M., and J. A. Maliekal, 2001: An examination of the 4 March 1999 blizzard. Abstracts, 26th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference, Saratoga Springs, NY, Lyndon State College Chapter, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Roc biggest snowstorm is 43.5 inches Feb 28 to March 2 1900. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Roc biggest snowstorm is 43.5 inches Feb 28 to March 2 1900. Interesting. I'm not familiar with that date, that's a big dump. The word "snowstorm" is a little loose though when using it to quantify totals. I'd like to see the 24 hour breakdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Most fell in one day 29.8 second biggest in 24 hours. March 1 1900 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Interesting. I'm not familiar with that date, that's a big dump. The word "snowstorm" is a little loose though when using it to quantify totals. I'd like to see the 24 hour breakdowns. Ur funny, I'm not familiar with that date, lol, cause its 116yrs ago, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Damn good analog right here! March 3-4, 99! Pretty much the same track, almost perfect, with the same kind of WAA as well as a strong HP moving off the MA coast pumping mid level warmth NEward. Well, not exactly. The differences may look subtle at first glance, but they are pretty significant. Just compare to 500 mb...no upstream 'kicker' shortwave, and everything is phasing fully, and already closed even at that level. This thing doesn't close off at H5 until it's in Canada, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 00z NAM is east, taking Buffalo out of the heaviest snowfall in favor of Rochester. It still shunts the low north through the mountains pretty rapidly. The RAP is edging east on every run as well. It will be interesting to watch this unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 This is the paper my professor wrote on the storm. Id like to see if I could get a copy of it. Rochette, S. M., and J. A. Maliekal, 2001: An examination of the 4 March 1999 blizzard. Abstracts, 26th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference, Saratoga Springs, NY, Lyndon State College Chapter, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 14. Yeah I looked here: http://vortex.weather.brockport.edu/~rochette/ Too bad, he has almost every other paper there. Gotta love the color scheme on that page, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 It's close. Not all storms are same but very similar set up. Buffalo got 8 inches syr a few inches of wrap around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Ur funny, I'm not familiar with that date, lol, cause its 116yrs ago, lol! I meant I've never heard it referenced. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 HRRR operational 10:1 ratio through 15Z Tuesday, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Pressure falls still look more east than northeast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Come on, there are huge differences between the current storm and the 1999 storm! Just compare the 500 mb maps. Surface storm track is similar, but 1999 storm was much more dynamic, much stronger upper level system. Two feet with this storm would be an incredible outcome...don't think it's very likely but would love to be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Snow has begun in Brewerton. Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 If I was in BUF id be pretty nervous of a bust... This thing is going east every run. At this rate SYR is gonna jackpot and BUF is gonna be fringed with 3"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Come on, there are huge differences between the current storm and the 1999 storm! Just compare the 500 mb maps. Surface storm track is similar, but 1999 storm was much more dynamic, much stronger upper level system. Two feet with this storm would be an incredible outcome...don't think it's very likely but would love to be wrong! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Hey guys, if I get in my car now and drive from Maine to Syracuse 5.5 hours, anyone think I run into heavy snowfall, on the way? I'm thinking more rain than anything until maybe Utica Rome? Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yeah I know, I'm nuts, lol! Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yeah I know, I'm nuts, lol! Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk I would think you'd be okay, prob just mostly light snow when you hit it. Just so long as you drive smart. And so long as you're okay with seeing a few inches, followed by a bunch of rain, then another inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 00Z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Seems to be quite a bit more of the heavy qpf behind the 0C 850 isotherm this go around on the 00z NAM...something is going on....I think jackpots will be east of ROC....JMHO....and JUST west of SYR.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Damn good analog right here! March 3-4, 99! Pretty much the same track, almost perfect, with the same kind of WAA as well as a strong HP moving off the MA coast pumping mid level warmth NEward. Roc cashed in with 2' on that one. Colder and windy. Blizzard warnings dropped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 First flakes in Kroc. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Kevin Williams said 2 to 3 inches a hour for 2 or 3 hours tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 from 12z to 00z in the black and white maps, the LP is dramatically shifted to the east...from WV to S 12Z: Link to better res: http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/592_100.gif . VA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 00z: Link to better res.... http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/511_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Canadian hi res holds plcmt of hvy snow over WNY. Fairly wide axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Map dave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Nws just upped roc to 12 to 20 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.