WNash Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 yeah BOX is out of their mind and totally playing catch up to this event. If I see less than 5" I won't post a thing on this subforum for a year. I'm at roughly 11" to date, expecting about 8" or so here, with another possible storm Tuesday here looking to produce similar totals that would put me near 26" or so, pretty close to BUF. You were pretty much right on the 8" last week, right? Looks like today was a bit of a dud in a good bit of RI compared to how the rest of SE New England is faring, but I bet whatever you end up today is more than we'll get out of this pattern at BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Euro looked pretty damn good for lake enhancement wed and thursday..About .75" LE by 12z thur.. A little from buffalo A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERMPERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGHTUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING SLOWLYACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRINGPERSISTENT AND OCCASIONALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION. AMOUNTS SE OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULDAVERAGE IN THE 3-6 SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE END OFTHE EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHER TOTALSFROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY IN ALL OF THESE CASES THERE ISSIMPLY TOO WIDE A SPREAD IN FORECAST WIND FIELDS TO SUPPORT ANY OFTHESE HEADLINES EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY SNOWFALL WILLREACH CRITERIA. ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL ALSO BE HELPFULIN PINNING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THATUPSTREAM CONNECTIONS WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Wxbell temps and humidities didnt work on the 12z run so i cant see it. 850 temps are now down to -33c on the 18z gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 850 temps are now down to -33c on the 18z gfs.. Your favorite model ayuud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Your favorite model ayuud. Nice it looks interesting indeed, remember when KIAG had 30"+ from those upstream bands couple years back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nice it looks interesting indeed, remember when KIAG had 30"+ from those upstream bands couple years back? Yeah, what a crazy storm that was. https://web.archive.org/web/20130209010737/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0910/d/stormsumd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 1.1" so far this morning..Light but steady snow continues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 That 1.1 will is most likely half melted by now lol. I sure did pick a bad year to get a new snowmobile, a whopping 210 miles on it. Screw the rest of this winter and bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 lol, yea it started melting once the snow stopped and temps jumped a few degrees..I think we will do OK over the next several days even if it's dink and dunk city...Few time frames to watch as well, 2/16-2/17, 2/22-2/23 etc..I'm still holding out some hope for another 59" inches and a triple digit season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 It looks like a solid advisory type snowfall for tomorrow based on the latest WRF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 lol, yea it started melting once the snow stopped and temps jumped a few degrees..I think we will do OK over the next several days even if it's dink and dunk city...Few time frames to watch as well, 2/16-2/17, 2/22-2/23 etc..I'm still holding out some hope for another 59" inches and a triple digit season I think you do decent this week Wolfie. I would say at least a foot in your location, possibly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Wow what a crusher on the euro for tues..Almost 3" of precip..Don't really care rain or snow atm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Wow what a crusher on the euro for tues..Almost 3" of precip..Don't really care rain or snow atm.. Would be snow and my god that storm lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Strong signal for synoptic event during that timeframe. Decent PNA and greenland block which should allow this to be an inland runner not a coaster hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Strong signal for synoptic event during that timeframe. Decent PNA and greenland block which should allow this to be an inland runner not a coaster hugger. Anyone got text output for euro for kroc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Any one got text output for kroc from euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Any one got text output for kroc from euro Don't worry about QPF output for a model run 8 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Just curious. It varies from 1-3" across the entire sub-forum. The more the farther east you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 From EPS, an odd track for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yea, i wouldn't worry to much about it..Extremely sharp cutoff which is too be expected in most events..Verbatim 0.8 at kroc, 2.6 at fulton, there is your cutoff..A little farther east and SEE YA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 So Wayne County about 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 GFS ENS are progressive/out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Canadian is in between gfs/euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Too bad the NAVGEM goes out to 180hrs but it looks like an app runner, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 That would go up into central eastern ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 You were pretty much right on the 8" last week, right? Looks like today was a bit of a dud in a good bit of RI compared to how the rest of SE New England is faring, but I bet whatever you end up today is more than we'll get out of this pattern at BUF.yes sir. 8" last storm on Friday and 6.4" in the storm yesterday 25.4" seasonal total. Think that's ahead of KBUF and got a few more inches coming tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 From a member on another board.. 12z EPS mean snow moved slightly south, best mean snow through ky up Ohio River into E. Ohio, then crushes PENN & NY state12z Control still south best snows through all over Tennessee then up the spine of the Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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