BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Model guidance is there for huge hit for WNY. I like the 8-15" call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Both NMM AND ARW WRF Models have huge hits for WNY. As well with the NAM, GFS, GEM, EURO, what model is he using lol? This just posted on twitter by Ch. 4 met Cejka. Looks like he's forecasting rain from Batavia east, heaviest snow over southern Ontario. Ballsy if that's what they end up broadcasting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 This just posted on twitter by Ch. 4 met Cejka. Looks like he's forecasting rain from Batavia east, heaviest snow over southern Ontario. Ballsy if that's what they end up broadcasting.. CbRUH_ZUAAA6vgD.png Latest HRRRX supports that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Latest HRRRX supports that idea. It does? The last frame begins to pivot over WNY? http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=HRRR&p=cmprefptype&rh=2016021516&fh=15&r=ne&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'll say this, I think it's going to be a better thing to be the closest to the mixing line as possible as the QPF will just be incredible if you can ride the line so to speak. The heaviest rates are in such a narrow corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Certainly no lack of juice with this storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 It does? The last frame begins to pivot over WNY? http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=HRRR&p=cmprefptype&rh=2016021516&fh=15&r=ne&dpdt= Weird, I'm using the one on NOAA eslr website and it looks different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'll say this, I think it's going to be a better thing to be the closest to the mixing line as possible as the QPF will just be incredible if you can ride the line so to speak. The heaviest rates are in such a narrow corridor. True...Kind of ironic that we get a significant synoptic system to hit WNY and we're likely to end up with a very narrow jackpot area, not too much different than a lake effect event. Might have to "chase" to get into the heavy banding of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 True...Kind of ironic that we get a significant synoptic system to hit WNY and we're likely to end up with a very narrow jackpot area, not too much different than a lake effect event. Might have to "chase" to get into the heavy banding of this storm. The reason being is this low pressure does not completely close off. By the time it hits its stride its well north in canada, but look at the snow shield by the time it gets there. Much bigger, this was so close to being a monster if it ended up closing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 He's liking the torchiest fcst. Lol That guy is ridiculous. It's so obvious he puts little work in, just picks something out in the lowest quartile and waits for other people to ratchet the forecast up. At least the regular weekend guy (recent PSU grad I think) does analysis, even if he doesn't have the pattern recognition experience for WNY yet. They're gonna miss Don Paul when he's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I grew up on Long Island in the 70s, and there were so many storms like this...you had to be right on the edge (well, just west of the edge) to maximize the QPF/vertical motion to get into that sweet spot where it was just cold enough to snow. So many times you'd go to bed as the snow began, only to wake up to that wonderful ping ping ping sound. I don't want to hear that ping ping ping sound tonight! Nowadays, of course, the NYC area cashes in on a regular basis. They don't know how lucky they've been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM 12 KM NAM 4KM GFS RGEM GEM Thanks for taking the time and effort to post all those! Great consistency on the long and mid range models. Prob time to focus on short range models. This is a nail biter for Roc. Wayne county has flood watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Euro is huge hit as well. No mixing for Buf or Roc. It's actually slightly southeast than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 It does? The last frame begins to pivot over WNY? http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=HRRR&p=cmprefptype&rh=2016021516&fh=15&r=ne&dpdt= Oh i see why it's different, that's the operational HRRR not the HRRRX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Euro 0.8 buf 1.9 roc. 2.4 wayne county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12z HRDPS snowfall only accumulation map thru 12z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 How much snow does euro give roc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'd guess 20 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Actually, the 12z Euro (via Wunderground snowfall map) shows the axis of heaviest snows from ROC east to 40 miles west of SYR.....wonder if the Euro is trying to shift to the east side of the Apps....? If 18z NAM goes colder (east) then there should be worry about the current thinking/warnings posted (shift east)...we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Current euro, 12z, shows best snow over flood watch areas. Lol. Tim, it still gives Roc 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Euro indeed jumped east. This is a very interesting storm. I had given up on any significant snow here but the pressure falls in the south are moving due east and the low itself appears to be a bit south of where it was supposed to. If it scoots up the east side of the Appalachians or makes an early transfer there could be a few surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Euro probably outside its range of superior performance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Almost now casting time! Here comes the moisture from the gulf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Euro indeed jumped east. This is a very interesting storm. I had given up on any significant snow here but the pressure falls in the south are moving due east and the low itself appears to be a bit south of where it was supposed to. If it scoots up the east side of the Appalachians or makes an early transfer there could be a few surprises. Interesting, we will see what the 18z runs show I guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Euro probably outside its range of superior performance! That's a myth...it can't be "worse" at earlier leads and then "magically" correct itself to do "better" at further leads....can it be wrong sometimes?? Of course, but the whole run would contain more error... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Buffalo very bullish, buf-roc with their afternoon package. Disco says roc on cold side but close. Hvy stuff somewhere between Roc and Buf. Someone's gonna get their heart broken with this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 That's a myth...it can't be "worse" at earlier leads and then "magically" correct itself to do "better" at further leads....can it be wrong sometimes?? Of course, but the whole run would contain more error... I was repeating what I've heard many times. Like a parrot. Thanks for the correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I was repeating what I've heard many times. Like a parrot. Thanks for the correction. I know....it is a pet peeve of mine....that said, this is a pretty delicate situation, re: storm track...least resistant LP track east or west of the apps....just a few mile difference in LP formation in either direction can have a rather large impact on whether this goes from west of Atlanta to SYR/ROC or from near Atlanta to Albany... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 I know....it is a pet peeve of mine....that said, this is a pretty delicate situation, re: storm track...least resistant LP track east or west of the apps....just a few mile difference in LP formation in either direction can have a rather large impact on whether this goes from west of Atlanta to SYR/ROC or from near Atlanta to Albany... Did you see long range LEK? Looks awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hmmmmmm... And as for our surface low, still due east: 12z NAM, for comparison, had the low about 50 miles north and moving NE. Let's see what the 18z says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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