OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I cant read those on my phone. Whats the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I cant read those on my phone. Whats the mean? 3" for all three sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 SREF PLUMES i agree, think 8-15" is way overblown which is why I said wow this morning when I read that. I called for 7" yesterday at BUF now I think even less will fall. I'm going with 5" at BUF, 10" at ROC and 1.5" at SYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 3" for all three sites. Too biased toward the nam ouput. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I am a regular lurker every winter but rarely have anything worthwhile to post since you are all well beyond my understanding of meteorology. What is the protocol for measuring snowfall in one of these mixing events? Somebody may get, say, 6 inches followed by rain that beats it down, then snow again at the end. Or of course it could switch back and forth several times. How is that officially measured and recorded? As someone who uses the snow, all I care about is snow on the ground at the end. Could a particular location officially record 6" of snowfall but have brown grass at the end of the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The 8 to 15 includes the western southern tier. The snowmap shoes the most down there and only about 8 in buf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Oh my lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Boy oh boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I dont understand the bust meter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I dont understand the bust meter? That 540 line cutting across like that makes me nervous just a tad bit of one more NW shift and we are dealing with rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 But snow map still shows 20 inches in roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Very exciting system but looks like ROC might be on the razor's edge. Hopefully being in the western part of Monroe county will work out for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 That 540 line cutting across like that makes me nervous just a tad bit of one more NW shift and we are dealing with rain.. But its always been a marginal temp event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Dynamic cooling FTW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Gfs looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I am a regular lurker every winter but rarely have anything worthwhile to post since you are all well beyond my understanding of meteorology. What is the protocol for measuring snowfall in one of these mixing events? Somebody may get, say, 6 inches followed by rain that beats it down, then snow again at the end. Or of course it could switch back and forth several times. How is that officially measured and recorded? As someone who uses the snow, all I care about is snow on the ground at the end. Could a particular location officially record 6" of snowfall but have brown grass at the end of the event? I think NWS or CoCoRAHS has training material on snowfall measuring that address this issue. I should perobably review these before this storm...Going from memory...you basically record the max snow fall reached before transition (if you are available to do so). If it swaps back to snow you would also record the next period's max snow fall and add them up for an "official" snow total report. I think the 6 hour rule also applies as far as frequency of measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Being near SYR, it's looking like 2-3" up front, brief ZR/IP and then an inch of rain with maybe another 2-3" of backside snow. Not being in the model jackpot and worrying what can go wrong is more relaxing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Oh my lol. 12z looks higher I think? BUF stays all snow and the mix line is right by ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12z looks higher I think? BUF stays all snow and the mix line is right by ROC. 12z hrgem isnt out yet? The 12z gfs looks higher though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12z hrgem isnt out yet? The 12z gfs looks higher though. It's out on environmental Canada website but I can only see precip type.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12z NAM looks even juicier and slightly more NW. ROC is truly walking a tight rope between a serious dump and an absolute slop fest. Tons of QPF though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Great discussions in here on the upcoming storm! If nothing else, this should be an interesting storm to watch unfold just considering the uncommon track it's expected to take. One thing I'll be watching for tomorrow in BUF is how much of an affect downsloping has on the precip rates. In my experience here, storms that pass us to the south/east produce very little accumulation until we get in the wraparound precip shield, often accompanied by enhanchment off L. Ontario. The end result is storms forecast to produce 8-12" typically end up in the 5-7" range. Not sure if and to what extent that will be an issue with this storm track though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Oh my lol. Lock it in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 He's liking the torchiest fcst. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Both NMM AND ARW WRF Models have huge hits for WNY. As well with the NAM, GFS, GEM, EURO, what model is he using lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Both NMM AND ARW WRF Models have huge hits for WNY. As well with the NAM, GFS, GEM, EURO, what model is he using lol? RPM it uses WRF as it's engine and gets run every three hours i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM 12 KM NAM 4KM GFS RGEM GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 RPM it uses WRF as it's engine and gets run every three hours i believe. You can see both WRF models here. Big hits on both in the 12z runs. The HRW-NMM and HRW-ARW. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Ukmet has loads of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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