BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm in Oswego Cty, just North of rt31! Oh nice how much did you get from the last LES event? 3 feet? I haven't seen you around much and see you have 400+ posts, where do you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yeah thats a much better look. That's definitely pretty far SE from Cuse, my bad! Not a problem Buffalo as I've been doing this for a real real long tim, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I bit the bullet and subscribed to Euro thru Ryan Mauer. I gotta have access for when CNY Freak ain't around! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 That or either roc is picot point. This reminds me if blizzard of 99. Just not the winds. Do you remember that one. 24 inches buffalo Syracuse got about 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm in Oswego Cty, just North of rt31! Nice to have another regular poster from a snow-belt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Pivot point. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Euro expands snowfall coverage by quite a bit. That being said, Rochester is literally its highest snowfall south of Canada. With, catch this Tim, 20". Wow. It also kisses Buf and Syracuse with significant (10"plus) snow. I wonder if the little lollipop over monroe county indicates just a touch of Lake enhancement? Oh definitely! This is a perfect track for KROC as they get the synoptic deformation but also, embedded within the synoptic bands, there are bound to be LEnhancement all across the South Shore from just West of KROC all the way over to Oswego cty, on the East end. Unfortunately, Buffalo doesn't benefit from much LE, as a NNW-NW trajectory just isn't favorable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Winds would be 5-15 MPH with up to 20-25 MPH gusts. Not cold enough for any lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Winds would be 5-15 MPH with up to 20-25 MPH gusts. Not cold enough for any lake enhancement. Its different within a synoptic environment as opposed to a true LE event. As long as the trajectory is ideal, the lake will just add additional moisture to the synoptic environment, therefore not needing the traditional delta T of 13F before a lake response is seen. LE should be plentiful all across the South Shore as I already said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Would love to wait for the 06Z NAM but am exhausted. I'm in Maine right now, at my other house where I traveled a couple weeks ago hoping to experience the blizzard event, but it was a whiff to my South so I now head back for an awesome event tomorrow. I got the best of both worlds I suppose, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Lake is 40 degrees remember. Cny what are 850 in second half of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Cortland County jackpots as well I think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Cortland County jackpots as well I think! With that slp track on Euro and other models, it's awfully close to I-81 corridor. I think we spend a lot of time as something other than snow around KSYR and esp KBGM...maybe not rain but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Lake is 40 degrees remember. Cny what are 850 in second half of storm. It doesn't matter within a synoptic environment just as if we were along the Atlantic and were getting pummeled by a Nor' Easter due to a wicked LLJ transporting moisture off the ATL. This is sort of like the same scenarion but only on a much smaller level. The differential between the lake temp and the temps at 850mb doesn't have to exist, you follow me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yes I do. Was just saying lake is unusually warm for time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 With that slp track on Euro and other models, it's awfully close to I-81 corridor. I think we spend a lot of time as something other than snow around KSYR and esp KBGM...maybe not rain but... There's no doubt we mix, as no mixing was never implied by me, but the duration of said mixture can greatly be reduced and perhaps avoided especially if the rates can overcome any kind of mid layer warmth that's within the BL. It depends on so many factors whether or not one switches over completely, which I do not think happens unless your West of lets say, Rome-Utica area. We're talking a matter of miles here where if the tracks off by 50 miles either way, the sensible weather can be worlds apart. I will say this about the Syracuse area and my experience is that if they can get a chance to mix, they will mix NO DOUBT and that's been my experience, as there is nothing stopping the LLJ from just punching through especially on a S-SE wind trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yes I do. Was just saying lake is unusually warm for time of year. Oh, I got ya Tim and you are 100% correct in your assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Ya may as well stay up for nam. Lol. I am and I gotta work at 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 There is one observation that I just came across and it doesn't bode well for those already on the fence regarding temps. The Euro is currently running quite a bit colder than what current observations are actually displaying. For instance, the Euro at 06z has KBMG at -11 and its currently -2 there, so that's obviously 9 degrees too cold right now and thats one of many many busts too cold. It has KROC at -8 and their at 2 above, WTF? Lets hope the most recent LE event puts sort of a mini baroclinicity zone for this system to use as a means of passage, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Nam looks to be deeper sharper down south that 18z run. Through 15hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Not looking good at 21hr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Digging for gold and heights out in front are flexing big time! KDET here I come, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Lol. Wouldn't go that far. Looks almost like euro. Pops low in West Va at 36. Headed nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I think this is coming up West of KBGM, but I don't wanna be that far off so we wait..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 And then the westward trend stops at 33. Phew. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Lol. Wouldn't go that far. Looks almost like euro. Pops low in West Va at 36. Headed nne Your out ahead of me then, and obviously the KDET was a joke, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Already at a inch precipitation with low in wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Its definitely much deeper as well as stronger and it looks like its also slowing up and if it heads up later, it could force this thing up East of the apps and become a HRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hrv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Already at a inch precipitation with low in wv yeah I saw that, lol, the precip output this run is gonna have to be cut in half nit a 1/3rd lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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