tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Just saying just 24 hours ago nam had next to nothing for any one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I see nws twitter page has a stripe of 12 plus goin from east of Buffalo to east of roc. About 50 miles wide. Everything you or I see on Social Media is basically old material as the NWS and most other agencies are behind the 8 ball when it comes to forecasting for the public. We have just as much data at our fingertips, as a Met does who's job is formulating a forecast in the NWS offices across our great Country! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 That sounds like an awesome job. It's my dream to be on a recon flight into an eye of a Hurricane. If you know anyone that can hook me up let me know! It's on my bucketlist. That's something I both want to do, and don't want to do...if you know what I mean. I've spent quite a few hours in small planes (Twin Otter, too small to stand up in). Most enjoyable was flying for several hours out over the Pacific at 100' in 40 knot winds. During turns it looked like the swells were almost touching the wingtips. It brought out my latent claustrophobia...not sure I can do that again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yeah but when they issued watch only saying 5 to 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Gfs about a touch colder for roc but with more qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Went Cross country skiing at a local park earlier today, perfect conditions! Awesome pics Buffalo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 That's something I both want to do, and don't want to do...if you know what I mean. I've spent quite a few hours in small planes (Twin Otter, too small to stand up in). Most enjoyable was flying for several hours out over the Pacific at 100' in 40 knot winds. During turns it looked like the swells were almost touching the wingtips. It brought out my latent claustrophobia...not sure I can do that again! Yeah, if that's the case maybe I wouldn't be able to. I have pretty bad claustrophobia as well. I do plan on going sky diving this summer though so that should give me a good taste of being on a small plane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM 4KM NAM 12KM GFS RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 The swath of heavy snow will only be 100 miles or so wide, margin of error is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Gfs about a touch colder for roc but with more qpf. Why are you concerned for the temp profiles for KROC??? They are fine, as I cant see any mechanism that would make KROC even see a mix, never mind plain rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yeah, if that's the case maybe I wouldn't be able to. I have pretty bad claustrophobia as well. I do plan on going sky diving this summer though so that should give me a good taste of being on a small plane. Hurricane hunters are bigger planes (P3 type), I've been in those...not nearly as claustrophobic though they are often jammed with equipment. Plus they don't fly at 100'. Of course, the trade off is they are going through an eyewall...multiple times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Something has to go wrong here...can't remember the last time Rochester was in the jackpot zone for a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Cause 850 are at like - 2 or - 3. 12z run had us going above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 00z GFS is something...looks like KROC down to Olean jackpot...also KBUF. Unusual outcome if it happens but this seems to be the gist of most NWP the past day or so. Some really heavy qpf right long the 540 dm line at h36 and h42. Gotta think KSYR is mixed phase in there for a while...haven't seen the sounding text output yet, just staring at various fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hurricane hunters are bigger planes (P3 type), I've been in those...not nearly as claustrophobic though they are often jammed with equipment. Plus they don't fly at 100'. Of course, the trade off is they are going through an eyewall...multiple times! I flew on a P3 in the Mediterranean out of Sigonella NAS in Sicily doing some sub hunting once, on special assignment looking for the sub I was normally assigned to...That wave skimming is a little scary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 GFS, NAM, NAM-4KM all look good at KROC per soundings. GFS might have a bit of a warm layer initially (like 30-33 hours) at around 925 mb, but that's about it. 850/700/500 low tracks all look 'safe' too. Makes some sense that in this scenario, any mixing issues would be early on, as we'll be pulling cold air in and seeing better dynamics as time goes on. As others have mentioned, it's a shame that there are two shortwaves competing here, and this storm will really be getting it's act together as it flies by...but at least we've got the whole 'partial phase' going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Gonna say 7" at BUF , 12" at ROC and 4" at SYR. Think the hills from Wyoming County out to the Bristol Hills south of ROC jackpot with around 15-16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 00z GFS is something...looks like KROC down to Olean jackpot...also KBUF. Unusual outcome if it happens but this seems to be the gist of most NWP the past day or so. Some really heavy qpf right long the 540 dm line at h36 and h42. Gotta think KSYR is mixed phase in there for a while...haven't seen the sounding text output yet, just staring at various fields. GFS looks like almost all rain at KSYR per soundings, except maybe a little snow wrapping around at the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 GFS looks like almost all rain at KSYR per soundings, except maybe a little snow wrapping around at the tail end. I haven't seen the soundings yet, or model extraction data but I Could believe that. Pretty unusual that NAM profiles are colder than GFS, I'd assume that's due to slight track difference. This thing doesn't really close off the H85 contour until hr 48, such a near miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 WOW, this is really a perfect system for a Lab assignment, lol, as there are so many things going on that can either make or break this forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Something has to go wrong here...can't remember the last time Rochester was in the jackpot zone for a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 GFS, NAM, NAM-4KM all look good at KROC per soundings. GFS might have a bit of a warm layer initially (like 30-33 hours) at around 925 mb, but that's about it. 850/700/500 low tracks all look 'safe' too. Makes some sense that in this scenario, any mixing issues would be early on, as we'll be pulling cold air in and seeing better dynamics as time goes on. As others have mentioned, it's a shame that there are two shortwaves competing here, and this storm will really be getting it's act together as it flies by...but at least we've got the whole 'partial phase' going on. If this was a full pdase with both competing SW's this would be jack-potting KDET maybe even KFLT, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 JB has little rain to the East of KBGM up to KSYR, but who really cares at this point, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Lets see how far this initial SW digs as that's the million dollar ? I think at this point, because the more she digs, the further West she comes, IMO, so lets NowCast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'll just say its awesome to see the forum as active as it is now. Gotta love synoptic systems! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Everything you or I see on Social Media is basically old material as the NWS and most other agencies are behind the 8 ball when it comes to forecasting for the public. We have just as much data at our fingertips, as a Met does who's job is formulating a forecast in the NWS offices across our great Country! NWS certainly has some catching up to do with regard to the whole social media business, among other emerging(emerged?) technology, but they've made some good progress. As far as the data and tools go, your not exactly wrong, but not exactly right either. Some pretty good toys ala AWIPS/AWIPSII that I can't find online. Ability to have multiple 4-panels and overlays of so many parameters, and hourly sounding data. Yes it can be quite maddening forecasting, and I don't blame anybody for going in ANY other direction, but at least there are some perks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NWS certainly has some catching up to do with regard to the whole social media business, among other emerging(emerged?) technology, but they've made some good progress. As far as the data and tools go, your not exactly wrong, but not exactly right either. Some pretty good toys ala AWIPS/AWIPSII that I can't find online. Ability to have multiple 4-panels and overlays of so many parameters, and hourly sounding data. Yes it can be quite maddening forecasting, and I don't blame anybody for going in ANY other direction, but at least there are some perks! Thats funny as I was going to mention AWIPS which is an awesome tool and yes they are not available to the general public! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Don't go crazy as its an experimental that uses GFS's physics package which should tell you something right there, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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