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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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Kbuf

 

 

 

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASING LIKELY THAT TWO MAIN PUSHES OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-
LASTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

 

 

 

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM AND
MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
THE FIRST SURGE OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES. BACK TRAJECTORIES ON THIS
AIRMASS... WHICH GLOBAL MODELS ARE GROWING INCREASING CONFIDENT ON
ITS TIMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOW IT ORIGINATES FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. THE GFS/EC/GEM AND
THEIR ENSEMBLES SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY. THIS WILL PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
WILL PROMOTE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES LIKELY
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
GFS/EC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD BRINGING THIS COLDER PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR... WHICH MODEL BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW ORIGINATES NEAR
SIBERIA AND EVOLVES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS VIA CROSS-POLAR FLOW IN
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. SHOULD 00Z GFS/EC CONSENSUS FORECAST
850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -30C MATERIALIZED BY SATURDAY... THIS
AIRMASS WOULD LIKELY CHALLENGE DAILY RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO AND LOWS BELOW ZERO.
WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE IN
THIS COLD AIRMASS... THE DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE GIVEN THIS EVENT
IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. HOWEVER... THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT BELOW TO
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
FEBRUARY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAINLY EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

 

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Wednesday night Kbuf makes a statement that a return to colder temps will be short lived.... Just two nights later they do a complete 180 and discuss a long lasting Arctic outbreak. I'm happy, but just thought BUF was premature making that statement and it appears that is now true.

Wednesday's AFD

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE

ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. AT LEAST ONE ROBUST

SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF AN EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE

BERING SEA...AND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO ALREADY

EXISTING TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS

DEEPENING TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BURGEONING UPSTREAM WEST COAST

RIDGE TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LOBE OF SUB-ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH

SOUTHWARDS INTO THE NATIONS MID-SECTION...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE

LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK. WHILE WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF

VERY COLD WEATHER WITH THIS SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY ...MANY WILL BE HAPPY

TO KNOW THAT THE TURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER SHOULD BE

SHORT LIVED.

Two days later they make this statement

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASING LIKELY THAT TWO MAIN PUSHES OF

ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EXTENDED WITH

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-

LASTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

Aside from that, It looks like a fairly wintery week in Adirondacks. Nothing signicant but it should at least feel like winter and we may score a few inches here or there. How the coastal system evolves will be interesting to watch unfold. I'm also hoping for some localized mountain snows with such a large juicy system overhead, we shall see

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Wednesday night Kbuf makes a statement that a return to colder temps will be short lived.... Just two nights later they do a complete 180 and discuss a long lasting Arctic outbreak. I'm happy, but just thought BUF was premature making that statement and it appears that is now true.

Wednesday's AFD

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE

ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. AT LEAST ONE ROBUST

SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF AN EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE

BERING SEA...AND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO ALREADY

EXISTING TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS

DEEPENING TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BURGEONING UPSTREAM WEST COAST

RIDGE TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LOBE OF SUB-ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH

SOUTHWARDS INTO THE NATIONS MID-SECTION...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE

LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK. WHILE WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF

VERY COLD WEATHER WITH THIS SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY ...MANY WILL BE HAPPY

TO KNOW THAT THE TURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER SHOULD BE

SHORT LIVED.

Two days later this make this statement

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASING LIKELY THAT TWO MAIN PUSHES OF

ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EXTENDED WITH

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-

LASTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

Aside from that, It looks like a fairly wintery week in Adirondacks. Nothing signicant but it should at least feel like winter and we may score a few inches here or there. How the coastal system evolves will be interesting to watch unfold. I'm also hoping for some localized mountain snows with such a large juicy system overhead, we shall see

 

Corrected the Wed. AFD...MANY WEENIES WILL BE HAPPY TO KNOW THAT THE TURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER SHOULD BE

LONG LIVED.

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Given the exceedingly large amount of variability both from run to run and model to model in the long range, they should probably refrain from making those kinds of statements.

 

Most likely evolution appears to be multiple but relatively short-lived cold shots. Next weekend does look like some serious cold, but again not long-lasting. Long lasting lake effect potential certainly, but not really long lasting extreme cold.

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THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT

WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN DROPPING THE CORE OF A FRIGID AIRMASS ACROSS

THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS

BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -30C. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE ON

PAR WITH THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT KBUF.

THE 00Z GFS DIRECTS THE CORE OF THE COLD THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO

NORTHERN MAINE...WITH A COLD BUT LESS EXTREME AIRMASS MOVING INTO

OUR REGION.

GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WITH A RELATIVELY

CONSERVATIVE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TEENS ON SATURDAY WITH

SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IF THE COLDER ECMWF

SOLUTION VERIFIES THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY

DOWNWARD. THE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW

SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BUT AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO

VERY DRY AND THIS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS DESPITE THE STRONG

INSTABILITY.

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_eus_8.png

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Best potential right now looks like wed into thurs..

 

 

 

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THE AIRMASS GROWS COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS MAY PRODUCE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

 

 

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What a complete waste of cold air this pattern is. Very little snow, no synoptic, and when it does get really cold its to dry for any good lake effect. I think I'm officially tossing this winter and ready for some tennis, beach volleyball, and golf. Bring on the Morch! ^_^

 

At least there will be enough snow to go to Holiday Valley Sunday/Monday this coming week. (I hope)

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What a complete waste of cold air this pattern is. Very little snow, no synoptic, and when it does get really cold its to dry for any good lake effect. I think I'm officially tossing this winter and ready for some tennis, beach volleyball, and golf. Bring on the Morch! ^_^

 

At least there will be enough snow to go to Holiday Valley Sunday/Monday this coming week. (I hope)

Man you just knocked the wind right out of me! I'm coming up next weekend for a nine day stay in Old Forge. Does not sound good. Hopefully things will change.

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Could be worst, we could get zilch haha

 

 

Tuesday

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. East wind 6 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Thursday
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 20. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Thursday Night
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday
A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 21. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night
A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 10. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -3. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

 

Nam wants to bring some ivt love all the way to south shore of ontario..Not that i necessarily buy it but fun to look at..

 

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Man you just knocked the wind right out of me! I'm coming up next weekend for a nine day stay in Old Forge. Does not sound good. Hopefully things will change.

 

It's not a bad pattern compared to what we've had all year. Aside from early January which was much better than this coming pattern. But to have those lake temps at record warmth and the amount of cold air coming, the potential was there for something HUGE, and we're probably looking at the absolutely worst possible outcome based on the coming pattern. You should be fine up there in the Adirondacks, but the Dacks/Vermont/NH mountains have been struggling the most this year in terms of snowfall/cold.

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It's not a bad pattern compared to what we've had all year. Aside from early January which was much better than this coming pattern. But to have those lake temps at record warmth and the amount of cold air coming, the potential was there for something HUGE, and we're probably looking at the absolutely worst possible outcome based on the coming pattern. You should be fine up there in the Adirondacks, but the Dacks/Vermont/NH mountains have been struggling the most this year in terms of snowfall/cold.

I can attest for your VT/NH snowfall comment. It was pretty barren up there whilst was there last weekend. They are usually good with snow up there and have great depth for skiing and snow mobile riding, but it was almost non existent. The only place on my whole trip that had great snow depth was the Tug and even they were under seasonal norms. Hasn't been a good year.

This upcoming cold shot looks nasty with coldest air of season for sure. Could easily see negative teens with those 850 temps and the usual cold spots in the Dak and NNE getting down to 25-30 below. Hopefully some LES can make it feel like winter around the lakes.

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That 850 temp on the gfs is very close to the record. The 850 temp record is -32.3C set at 12z jan 17 1982. "Cold Sunday". Low of -16f, high of -2f. Wind chill might have been record too, legit, new system wind chill of -38F on that sounding.

I have a feeling we will break that record, just look at the way the PV is setup on the 12z Euro, I wouldn't be suprised to see some pockets of sub -34C near BUF come next Sunday.

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