BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Positive PNA and negative AO usually does this area quite good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 FWIW the 2m temps on the GEFS never go above freezing after late next week into the end of the run, also i like the orientation of the PV on the long range on the op run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 We are going to literally nickel and dime our way to some decent snowfall totals by the end of Feb IMO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 FWIW the 2m temps on the GEFS never go above freezing after late next week into the end of the run, also i like the orientation of the PV on the long range on the op run! Yep. Ensembles on all suites trended colder the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Kbuf IT CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASING LIKELY THAT TWO MAIN PUSHES OFARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EXTENDED WITHMUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-LASTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM ANDMEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE FIRST SURGE OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES. BACK TRAJECTORIES ON THISAIRMASS... WHICH GLOBAL MODELS ARE GROWING INCREASING CONFIDENT ONITS TIMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOW IT ORIGINATES FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. THE GFS/EC/GEM ANDTHEIR ENSEMBLES SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C ACROSS WESTERNAND CENTRAL NY. THIS WILL PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLEDIGITS AND TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.ALSO...MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WHICHWILL PROMOTE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES LIKELYSTARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTICAIR IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST CONUS.GFS/EC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD BRINGING THIS COLDER PUSHOF ARCTIC AIR... WHICH MODEL BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW ORIGINATES NEARSIBERIA AND EVOLVES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS VIA CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTHE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. SHOULD 00Z GFS/EC CONSENSUS FORECAST850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -30C MATERIALIZED BY SATURDAY... THISAIRMASS WOULD LIKELY CHALLENGE DAILY RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITHHIGHS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO AND LOWS BELOW ZERO.WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE INTHIS COLD AIRMASS... THE DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE GIVEN THIS EVENTIS STILL A WEEK AWAY. HOWEVER... THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT BELOW TOMUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OFFEBRUARY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Wednesday night Kbuf makes a statement that a return to colder temps will be short lived.... Just two nights later they do a complete 180 and discuss a long lasting Arctic outbreak. I'm happy, but just thought BUF was premature making that statement and it appears that is now true. Wednesday's AFD .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. AT LEAST ONE ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF AN EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE BERING SEA...AND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO ALREADY EXISTING TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BURGEONING UPSTREAM WEST COAST RIDGE TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LOBE OF SUB-ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS INTO THE NATIONS MID-SECTION...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK. WHILE WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER WITH THIS SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY ...MANY WILL BE HAPPY TO KNOW THAT THE TURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. Two days later they make this statement .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... IT CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASING LIKELY THAT TWO MAIN PUSHES OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EXTENDED WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF LONG- LASTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. Aside from that, It looks like a fairly wintery week in Adirondacks. Nothing signicant but it should at least feel like winter and we may score a few inches here or there. How the coastal system evolves will be interesting to watch unfold. I'm also hoping for some localized mountain snows with such a large juicy system overhead, we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Wednesday night Kbuf makes a statement that a return to colder temps will be short lived.... Just two nights later they do a complete 180 and discuss a long lasting Arctic outbreak. I'm happy, but just thought BUF was premature making that statement and it appears that is now true. Wednesday's AFD .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. AT LEAST ONE ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF AN EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE BERING SEA...AND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO ALREADY EXISTING TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BURGEONING UPSTREAM WEST COAST RIDGE TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LOBE OF SUB-ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS INTO THE NATIONS MID-SECTION...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK. WHILE WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER WITH THIS SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY ...MANY WILL BE HAPPY TO KNOW THAT THE TURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. Two days later this make this statement .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... IT CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASING LIKELY THAT TWO MAIN PUSHES OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EXTENDED WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF LONG- LASTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. Aside from that, It looks like a fairly wintery week in Adirondacks. Nothing signicant but it should at least feel like winter and we may score a few inches here or there. How the coastal system evolves will be interesting to watch unfold. I'm also hoping for some localized mountain snows with such a large juicy system overhead, we shall see Corrected the Wed. AFD...MANY WEENIES WILL BE HAPPY TO KNOW THAT THE TURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER SHOULD BE LONG LIVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Given the exceedingly large amount of variability both from run to run and model to model in the long range, they should probably refrain from making those kinds of statements. Most likely evolution appears to be multiple but relatively short-lived cold shots. Next weekend does look like some serious cold, but again not long-lasting. Long lasting lake effect potential certainly, but not really long lasting extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN DROPPING THE CORE OF A FRIGID AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -30C. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE ON PAR WITH THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT KBUF. THE 00Z GFS DIRECTS THE CORE OF THE COLD THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE...WITH A COLD BUT LESS EXTREME AIRMASS MOVING INTO OUR REGION. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WITH A RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TEENS ON SATURDAY WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IF THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD. THE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BUT AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND THIS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS DESPITE THE STRONG INSTABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I have a feeling the areas just south of lake Ontario might cash in big time with LES from late Fri night into Saturday, decent parameters on the 12z GFS bufkit data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Best potential right now looks like wed into thurs.. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THE AIRMASS GROWS COLDENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS MAY PRODUCE HIGHER SNOW TOTALSACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS SOUTHEASTOF LAKE ONTARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 What a complete waste of cold air this pattern is. Very little snow, no synoptic, and when it does get really cold its to dry for any good lake effect. I think I'm officially tossing this winter and ready for some tennis, beach volleyball, and golf. Bring on the Morch! At least there will be enough snow to go to Holiday Valley Sunday/Monday this coming week. (I hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 I think Southern Tier, Erie PA, South of Ontario could maybe do somewhat decent, but with this type of cold air and those lake temps we should be getting a big event and I just don't see it with this set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Look at that lake lol. We should be talking an 07 event with those temps and the cold air coming but its going to be marginal type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 What a complete waste of cold air this pattern is. Very little snow, no synoptic, and when it does get really cold its to dry for any good lake effect. I think I'm officially tossing this winter and ready for some tennis, beach volleyball, and golf. Bring on the Morch! At least there will be enough snow to go to Holiday Valley Sunday/Monday this coming week. (I hope) Man you just knocked the wind right out of me! I'm coming up next weekend for a nine day stay in Old Forge. Does not sound good. Hopefully things will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Could be worst, we could get zilch haha Tuesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. East wind 6 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 20. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 21. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 10. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -3. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Nam wants to bring some ivt love all the way to south shore of ontario..Not that i necessarily buy it but fun to look at.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm big game hunting myself, but this year u gotta take what ever mother nature gives.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Man is that some serious cold for next Saturday on both the EPS and the op run, good lord! 850 temps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Ggem and gfs OP agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Man you just knocked the wind right out of me! I'm coming up next weekend for a nine day stay in Old Forge. Does not sound good. Hopefully things will change. It's not a bad pattern compared to what we've had all year. Aside from early January which was much better than this coming pattern. But to have those lake temps at record warmth and the amount of cold air coming, the potential was there for something HUGE, and we're probably looking at the absolutely worst possible outcome based on the coming pattern. You should be fine up there in the Adirondacks, but the Dacks/Vermont/NH mountains have been struggling the most this year in terms of snowfall/cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Ggem and gfs OP agree cmc_pr6_slp_t850_syracuse_25.png gfs_t850_syracuse_25.png Could definitely see some minus teens for overnight lows this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It's not a bad pattern compared to what we've had all year. Aside from early January which was much better than this coming pattern. But to have those lake temps at record warmth and the amount of cold air coming, the potential was there for something HUGE, and we're probably looking at the absolutely worst possible outcome based on the coming pattern. You should be fine up there in the Adirondacks, but the Dacks/Vermont/NH mountains have been struggling the most this year in terms of snowfall/cold. I can attest for your VT/NH snowfall comment. It was pretty barren up there whilst was there last weekend. They are usually good with snow up there and have great depth for skiing and snow mobile riding, but it was almost non existent. The only place on my whole trip that had great snow depth was the Tug and even they were under seasonal norms. Hasn't been a good year. This upcoming cold shot looks nasty with coldest air of season for sure. Could easily see negative teens with those 850 temps and the usual cold spots in the Dak and NNE getting down to 25-30 below. Hopefully some LES can make it feel like winter around the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Be interesting to see how this looks in the middle of next week. Any guesses on ice coverage? I'd say 40-50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Be interesting to see how this looks in the middle of next week. Any guesses on ice coverage? I'd say 40-50% I'll take a bit over 50%. This is some really impressive cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'll take a bit over 50%. This is some really impressive cold. The lakes between 34-38 degs so it will take awhile before it even begins the freezing process. That extreme cold also only last a day or 2 so I'm not sure we see 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The lakes between 34-38 degs so it will take awhile before it even begins the freezing process. That extreme cold also only last a day or 2 so I'm not sure we see 50%. True. Forgetting that the heat capacity of water will take forever for it to drop to the levels needed for that. Physics, it's a crap shoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Forecast low of -8 on sat night, with chance of snow showers, pretty neat..I probably wont be going out to much over the weekend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That 850 temp on the gfs is very close to the record. The 850 temp record is -32.3C set at 12z jan 17 1982. "Cold Sunday". Low of -16f, high of -2f. Wind chill might have been record too, legit, new system wind chill of -38F on that sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That 850 temp on the gfs is very close to the record. The 850 temp record is -32.3C set at 12z jan 17 1982. "Cold Sunday". Low of -16f, high of -2f. Wind chill might have been record too, legit, new system wind chill of -38F on that sounding. I have a feeling we will break that record, just look at the way the PV is setup on the 12z Euro, I wouldn't be suprised to see some pockets of sub -34C near BUF come next Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I have a feeling we will break that record, just look at the way the PV is setup on the 12z Euro, I wouldn't be suprised to see some pockets of sub -34C near BUF come next Sunday. Wxbell temps and humidities didnt work on the 12z run so i cant see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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