BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 There is also always a 50 mile jog NW in the nowcasting time range with storms like this. I bet we see snow from Detriot to Toronto once all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 KBUF is at 34.9" on the year which is 26.3" below normal for the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 There is also always a 50 mile jog NW in the nowcasting time range with storms like this. I bet we see snow from Detriot to Toronto once all is said and done. The main impulse is still over the pacific so you'd think there are going to be some changes within the next 24 hours as everything comes onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The GFS caved to the Euro solution during today's 12Z, which was entirely expected, as the last 4-5 runs from the EURO have been a rock, as far as consistency is concerned. The GFS has been all over the place since we've began tracking this system a week ago. I wouldn't be surprised, if one of the first solutions, to show a decent hit for our area, comes to fruition as it usually sees thing from afar then loses it, only to find it again later on. And this seems, once again, like one of those times. If anybody has the ability to see run s from last week, archived runs, I guarantee there are some healthy hits in there similar to what their showing now, form 2 days out. I've seen this occur quite a few times, including this last system to affect us up here in ME. I moved to DE ME thinking I'd see some healthy Tucked in GOM Nor'easters but no dice this yr, so far so I have to travel back to the other house, in Pennellville, so now I have the bast of both worlds. The only downfall is that I have to deal/put up with the extreme weenies of the SNE thread. The wishcasting in that thread or any thread created by one of those characters is wishcasted upon to the fullest extent. I lived in SNE for 18 years...never saw a "Blizzard" and in fact, excepting the winter of 1995/96, that period was an absolute hole as far as snowstorms. Most snowstorms happened well inland and in Central/Northern New England, not the hellholes of Bridgeport CT or NYC. The BGM-ALB-BTV corridor was where you needed to be for snowstorms. Didn't help that I lived in the biggest snow hole of the area...SECT. The weenie game is strong down there. Even the mets seem to have it in the blood. Googleplex's have been written for minor passing s/w's and how they will yield a foot of snow for that area. Ocean Effect snow will dump 6" on Boston and Hartford if we were to believe half of what's fantasized about down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Let me say one other thing...the 6Z & 18Z US NWP runs are very unreliable...as compared to 0z and 12z. Tomes have been written as to why this is, which I won't recount here, suffice to say, they're usually worth missing. Once in a Blue Moon they latch on to something first but for the most part they just add to the cognitive dissonance of the modelology game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Euro is east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Euro is east.. post-17586-1455430425_thumb.jpg Its to warm for snow east of Syracuse. Jackpot is Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Hard to get a good temp. profile on Euro. But 2m temps of above 0 are not good for the snow chances. As already pointed out a very fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 The Euro would be WWA for WNY, WSW from Roc to Cuse possibly if enough cooling takes place. I say snow to rain for Elmira to Cuse to Albany and points southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Also next weekend there is a pretty decent thaw. We should be able to see highs near 40 for 2-3 days. But late Feb/early March looks good for a synoptic pattern for the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 850 temps get to Syracuse then retreat..Surface a lil warm...40s get to Oneida county...mid 30s to Oswego county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Rochester gets warmer then Fulton lol And much less precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 An area farther west of the track gets warmer than a location closer? That's nearly impossible, don't think I've ever seen it lol Rochester gets warmer then Fulton lol And much less precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 850 temps get to Syracuse then retreat..Surface a lil warm...40s get to Oneida county...mid 30s to Oswego county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 GEFS super amped. Quite a few bring Buf rain to snow changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Let me say one other thing...the 6Z & 18Z US NWP runs are very unreliable...as compared to 0z and 12z. Tomes have been written as to why this is, which I won't recount here, suffice to say, they're usually worth missing. Once in a Blue Moon they latch on to something first but for the most part they just add to the cognitive dissonance of the modelology game.This is actually a funny debate as there are some Mets, JB just to mention one, that says both the 06Z and 18th suites are good for trend and that's about it. Many a times I've seen a 12z suite show a beaut, only to have the 18z take her away, only to have the 06Z bring her back, but if the 06Z still has her then we start paying more attention especially if the subsequent 12 has her they we pay much more attention. That's the only reason I look at them, I know this much, lol.Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Hard to get a good temp. profile on Euro. But 2m temps of above 0 are not good for the snow chances. As already pointed out a very fine line. I have 2m temps and their fins West of I81, points East definitely have boundary layer issues.Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Euros cold like I said but I can't post 2m Tp's sorry but take my word for it. I'd scrap the GPS FWIW,and take a nice blend of the remaining guidance leaning heavily towards the European fur to its consistency although it did tick east a bit, but at this point I'd consider it backround noise! Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 An area farther west of the track gets warmer than a location closer? That's nearly impossible, don't think I've ever seen it lol An area farther west of the track gets warmer than a location closer? That's nearly impossible, don't think I've ever seen it lol Rochester gets to 37, Fulton 36 ..Not a big difference.. Remember east gets heavier precip which can help .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Warmest temps happen as the storm is winding down.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Check out KART... -35F. Woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Lets keep in mind also that the SW responsible for cyclogenesis is still not being sampled properly IMO. Lets see what happens with the 06Z runs as they may in fact shed some more light on the situation. I don't normally look at off runs, but I do for trends and since this imminent system can trend any which way at this point, its seems more logical to look at them than not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Nam is hours and hours of light precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What can make this come West a bit, or vice versa? That's really the million dollar question. I still think we see some surprises from this system. I will say this, if that SW is not being sampled properly, or it didn't ingest all the necessary data because of the region its in, there can definitely be implications downwind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Nam is hours and hours of light precip nam_total_precip_east_23.png I think its still playing catch up. It'll start looking logical tomorrow some time I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The NAM may or may not be on to something cause it completely shreds the first SW and completely puts all its eggs in the second SW, the original kicker, so lets see if the GFS actually does something funky like this or the NAM is off on its own. If there's a model that can pick this up, it would be the Nam, from only 48-60hrs out. Look at these 2 panels for the same time frame as they are drastically different and from 48hrs out from the event htis seems strange to say the least but plausible. Can't be any more different at H5, and for it to make such a drastic change, its either off its rocker and throw it out, or its on to something and the GFS also picks up on it. It could be that the SW was sampled better so the downstream changes were huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Just wait til you see what the 6z GFS is showing, screws pretty much everyone haha! good lord.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 -23 in Skaneateles this morning. Wowzer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Check out KART... -35F. Woof. They bottomed out at -37F and that beats the record of -30F set back in 79 and places them in the top 3 of all time coldest, Below is the list of their all time record lows.. :shiver: 1: -43F set back in January 16th 1994 2: -38F set back in January 4th 1981 3: -37F set back in December 25th 1980, December 27th 1989, January 22nd 2014, February 14th 2016 4: -36F set back in February 16th 2015 5: -35F set back in February 19th 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Fulton, Oswego county airport just dropped to -16..Not sure if that's a record for this date..We finally have a little sun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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