CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12Z NAM = colder and weaker. It has about .5 inch LE over CNY. Most of the precip would be overnight Monday into Tuesday. It doesn't appear we would have any mixing worries here with this run. The Nam will begin to to see the light at the start of the event and I don't care how well it did with the MA blizzard. Different synoptic set-up, with a completely different outcome. Its very hard to go against the European globals, especially considering the fact that they've been in step with each other (Euro-UK-Met and for that matter the JMA). Just can't see how the American Models even come close to their depiction. The GFS is absolutely atrocious, and the fact that it can't come in with 2 runs similar to each other, this close in to an event is, completely unacceptable IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Navy looks Decent..Don't know if it still has it's "progressive" bias. nav_pr6_slp_t850_east_12.png nav_pr6_slp_t850_east_13 (1).png Still has its S&E bias, so if its that far N&W then this would tell me that ENY need to be concerned ad well as parts of CNY like Syracuse and just West need to watch for a mix as the thermal profiles are too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The Sunday 12z runs should give us a better idea of who will be wet or white or dry with this next system. It doesn't look all that wound up on any NWP so I'd favor a middle of the road type system. As long as it rains in Southern New England and the Mid Atlantic, I'm ok with any outcome. KBGM put out a SWS for the band in Onondaga County. Good job by them, it's nasty out there. Remember they are entitled to a "Blizzard" every winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Nam? Having alot of issues Tim, any reason you double post?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Roc taking it on chin atm. Pouring snow Brief bursts of +SN here also, they are five distinct bands right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The Sunday 12z runs should give us a better idea of who will be wet or white or dry with this next system. It doesn't look all that wound up on any NWP so I'd favor a middle of the road type system. As long as it rains in Southern New England and the Mid Atlantic, I'm ok with any outcome. KBGM put out a SWS for the band in Onondaga County. Good job by them, it's nasty out there. The GFS caved to the Euro solution during today's 12Z, which was entirely expected, as the last 4-5 runs from the EURO have been a rock, as far as consistency is concerned. The GFS has been all over the place since we've began tracking this system a week ago. I wouldn't be surprised, if one of the first solutions, to show a decent hit for our area, comes to fruition as it usually sees thing from afar then loses it, only to find it again later on. And this seems, once again, like one of those times. If anybody has the ability to see run s from last week, archived runs, I guarantee there are some healthy hits in there similar to what their showing now, form 2 days out. I've seen this occur quite a few times, including this last system to affect us up here in ME. I moved to DE ME thinking I'd see some healthy Tucked in GOM Nor'easters but no dice this yr, so far so I have to travel back to the other house, in Pennellville, so now I have the bast of both worlds. The only downfall is that I have to deal/put up with the extreme weenies of the SNE thread. The wishcasting in that thread or any thread created by one of those characters is wishcasted upon to the fullest extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Open lake still, surprised with the lack of ice. I'm not surprised at all due to the lack there of, of temps even near normal as they've been consistently AN the whole winter season so far. With Lake temps still hovering in the upper 30's to near 40F, in the middle of Feb is unheard of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like a lot of whats falling throughout CNY is being overshot by TYX's radar, so the radar is NOT really indicative of the returns being displayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Sorry for double posts. New phone. Getting Used to it still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Where are you located Tim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Brief bursts of +SN here also, they are five distinct bands right now.. Yeah at my grandmas by buff state and about an inch so far. Really fine snow, viability about a mile. They definitely didn't get as much snow as we did down south here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Walworth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like nam coming in more ammped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Go look outside ayuud pretty close to u. Coming down good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Need 1 more bump west then stop lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Just as the GFS Caved, so has the NAM, but still has a ways to go to catch up to the Euro and UKMET. Look at the shift in QPF from 18Z to 00Z and this is just the beginning, as most of the other guidance is also gong to cave/bow down to the superiority of the Euro Model!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 As far as I'm concerned, I could care less what the NAM is showing and to a larger extent, the GFS, as its absolutely atrocious to put it mildly! The Euro hasn't wavered the last 6 runs in a row and it baffles me as to why anybody else would put any stock into what any other guidance is suggesting at this point, unless its been as consistent as the EURO in depicting a different result. Have we seen any other guidance exhibit such behavior with this event? I dont think so but If anybody knows of any other guidance that hass had this on their radar from 7 days out?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Go look outside ayuud pretty close to u. Coming down good right now. Dang must have missed it nonetheless it dropped about an inch or two outside, i was down in E.aurora earlier and they had some impressive snowpack down there , I'd estimate 2ft or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Goofs model came way nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Goofs model came way nw Terrible performance by the american models with this system, went from mix line around ALB at 12z to near BUF at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Dang must have missed it nonetheless it dropped about an inch or two outside, i was down in E.aurora earlier and they had some impressive snowpack down there , I'd estimate 2ft or so.. Yeah we have about a foot here. I just drove back from Buffalo and in the heaviest portion of the band visibility was less than 1/2 mile. Pretty strong stuff considering the radar doesn't show much. Most likely due to the extremely low temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 May have over corrected. On to ukie and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 I told you guys all along. That high is very strong, this was a cutter a week ago. Anywhere from Detroit to Albany will get the most snow and its a very thin line. I'm still not confident on any track and it's why I am not posting about it yet. I think tomorrow night I will be able to give an opinion on track. Also, I never go by OP models. Blend the GFS/Euro Ens and you get a good idea on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Also, this will most likely not be a big winter storm for anyone. Max totals of around 6-12" in the hardest hit areas, if that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Terrible performance by the american models with this system, went from mix line around ALB at 12z to near BUF at 00z. There is literally like 200 miles NW shift between the 18z and the 0z run lol wtf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GEM has moderate snowstorm for WNY. GFS may have convective issues as discussed on Accuweather forum. GFS still has accums for WNY. Roc Meteorologist Mark McLain didn't even mention storm at 11 pm news. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Because he model hugs gfs with every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GEM has moderate snowstorm for WNY. GFS may have convective issues as discussed on Accuweather forum. GFS still has accums for WNY. Roc Meteorologist Mark McLain didn't even mention storm at 11 pm news. Weird. 00z ukmet is a qpf bomb for central new york, can't tell how far west mixing gets though. Either way its well east of the GFS and probably better for much of central/western ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Pretty warm Would be rain to snow scenario. 00z ukmet is a qpf bomb for central new york, can't tell how far west mixing gets though. Either way its well east of the GFS and probably better for much of central/western ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Tracks it across Central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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