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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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New lake snow advisory for roc. Probably will get more in Monroe County than previous set up. Hoping anyway

I think that's very possible Tim. I did rcv about 6" here in Itondequoit but most of Monroe county got Butkus. WNW doesn't work for us. NNW is better, question is if we can get any dendrite structure. I bet we do.

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The euro track is best possible track for roc and western ny. Plus isn't this the best time frame for euros track record

 

No, best timeframe is a day before when all model guidance has a consensus and even then you can get 100 mile variations in tracks. It's way to far out still. I'd say anywhere from Detriot, Toronto, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, to Albany can jackpot.

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Front passage tomorrow should be fun. I like the set up for Tuesday's storm. A moderately narrow geographical region, from south to north, will see a big, heavy snowstorm! Classic inland runner. This massive high, which will be over Atlantic, will prevent yet another OTS. Energy over the upper Midwest should keep it from Great Lakes runner. Someone from wva, through western/ central PA on thru wny and cny should have a chance. Including cities like Cleveland on the west and Albany on the east. Somewhere in between gets the crush job. If it's along the thruway, the NE wind would bring big bonus snow. Buf, Syr, roc? Eastern finger lakes looks sweet right now.

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Upgraded to a warning

 

 

 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO
10 AM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS TODAY...5 TO 9 INCHES
TONIGHT...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES SATURDAY...LEADING TO STORM
TOTALS OF 7 TO 13 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.
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Lots of huge hits on the ensembles, only 4 of the 51 goes west of cny ..Many more "misses" the rain...Euro control goes through eastern NY and is a tremendous hit ..The 6z gfs was west and has much more mixing/Rain...The euro had a crazy amount of precip (3.5") but it wasn't all snow..Many more runs to go, hopefully we start to see some consistency sooner rather then later...

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So much for that band being on the weaker side this morning, kicking pretty good right now. Hopefully that's only a little kink on the radar looks like it might just get pushed on shore and loose connection.

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3.3" in an hour not bad, maybe a sign of things to come? a see some definte northward movement on CLE radar so we should be back in the game within the next two hours..

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