ILoveWinter Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Better to use the SREFs as a confirmation of today's trends, hope this keep up for 18z and 0z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 They should at least aknowledge the models I rarely break this out, I'm gonna do so now. I don't know what you think we do here man, but I can assure you we're looking at the models when we're debating snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyDop Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 the roads tomorrow are going to be a nightmare. nobody is going to be prepared for this. Not if the temps are at or near freezing. Any salt thrown down should keep the roads wet no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I rarely break this out, I'm gonna do so now. I don't know what you think we do here man, but I can assure you we're looking at the models when we're debating snow ratios. please he means no harm. He is like a untrained puppy that knows no boundaries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Not if the temps are at or near freezing. Any salt thrown down should keep the roads wet no? Not when its snowing at 1-2 inches an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Plumes are about 5-6 for the area airports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 the roads tomorrow are going to be a nightmare. nobody is going to be prepared for this. All depends on timing and changeover if any. As far as being prepared there was mention of it last night on all major news channels. If warranted you'll see them change their forecasts. Not sold on a 4-6" event for Smithtown just yet and if it does it would likely be a VERY wet/slushy snow. Typical LI paste job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Not when its snowing at 1-2 inches an hour Those rates are unlikely. The roads during the blizzard stayed quite slush covered for some time as they used brine on quite a few roads. Wether they use it again I can't say. But even if normal Salt is used temps are going to be very close to marginal. Combined with wet snow it could be a slushy mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 please he means no harm. He is like a untrained puppy that knows no boundaries Think its a fair point. Dont know the logistics required to put out an HWO, but i think something should be up by now. 12z guidance was consistent. Timing seems like it would impact the morning rushhour. Its been 50's and rainy all week. Without an HWO how will the Jance Huffs of the world have any clue it is about to snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 You people aren't paying attention to soundings and timing of this. The precip moves in at about 2am. By 4am, everyone is moderate to heavy snow. By 6am, it's easily accumulating. Saying this wont accumulate is completely irresponsible of any meteorologist. Sorry. 3"-6" is the proper call right now. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 You people aren't paying attention to soundings and timing of this. The precip moves in at about 2am. By 4am, everyone is moderate to heavy snow. By 6am, it's easily accumulating. Saying this wont accumulate is completely irresponsible of any meteorologist. Sorry. 3"-6" is the proper call right now. Period. Well that settles it, then. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Well that settles it, then. Period. Yes. If you are calling for less then 3" in the NYC boroughs, you are irresponsible as well and I hope you aren't responsible for a public forecast. In Manhattan's nasty cement factory, of course you wont see anything more then slush. But Manhattan does not represent the entire 5 boroughs. Sorry. I didn't just start this and it's obvious. Look at dynamics. Not Jan. 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yes. If you are calling for less then 3" in the NYC boroughs, you are irresponsible as well. Sorry. I didn't just start this and it's obvious. Look at dynamics. Not Jan. 2008. It's more the attitude. Then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Well that settles it, then. Period. People are too worried about the bl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Tuesday: Like I said last year, with this kind of 300mb jet structure over us...I'm in the camp that the models will adjust the precip field and continue to edge west. Best forcing over Jersey And its even gotten better since then. The HRRR is beautiful, but also a nightmare for the local WFOs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 It's more the attitude. Then. The attitude is needed because it's irresponsible how the meteorologists that the public depend on are acting. Telling people a coating to a slushy inch, when there is nothing that supports under 3" and the consensus is for 4"-6" is completely irresponsible and very dangerous for the morning commute. Anyway, I'm out. Everyone enjoy the 3"-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 EPS is further west then the op Nam looks to be showing a qpf bomb this run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 You people aren't paying attention to soundings and timing of this. The precip moves in at about 2am. By 4am, everyone is moderate to heavy snow. By 6am, it's easily accumulating. Saying this wont accumulate is completely irresponsible of any meteorologist. Sorry. 3"-6" is the proper call right now. Period. I haven't looked at soundings on the 12Z runs but I do know the 00z models last night looked to me like snow could fall earlier than many might be thinking. There was really a good amount of evaporative cooling potential and dry nose below 800mb, by 06z I remember there being only a 800-1000ft layer above freezing and that was at the surface, in general you will snow in that sort of sounding as anything under 1500ft on the above freezing surface layer and it will fall as snow. Evaporative cooling occurs faster with snow as well, so a forecast that has rain at 07z with a 39/26 spread will see temps go towards 32 much faster than a 39/26 spread with RA or RASN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Tuesday: And its even gotten better since then. The HRRR is beautiful, but also a nightmare for the local WFOs the bronx would prob jackpot in this this frame lol..i was alluding to that earlier about the city closer to the jackpot then isp.cooler right over us and warmer from eastern l.i up to boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I haven't looked at soundings on the 12Z runs but I do know the 00z models last night looked to me like snow could fall earlier than many might be thinking. There was really a good amount of evaporative cooling potential and dry nose below 800mb, by 06z I remember there being only a 800-1000ft layer above freezing and that was at the surface, in general you will snow in that sort of sounding as anything under 1500ft on the above freezing surface layer and it will fall as snow. Evaporative cooling occurs faster with snow as well, so a forecast that has rain at 07z with a 39/26 spread will see temps go towards 32 much faster than a 39/26 spread with RA or RASN. 12z models deepened the Atlantic trough and delay the front further, allowing the developing coastal to move slower, hug the coast more and throw back precip further west. There's a 2-3 hour delay with rain to snow because of this but at the same time, we receive much heavier precip when it's cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Hmmm Maybe a period of light snow up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks like we start to rain esp. On LI in several hours. Precip coming N rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Big FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 18z nam has .50+ from ttn-nyc very sharp gradient west of there to nothing in far nw jersey central and southern Nj .75+ and LI is over a inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 With marginal boundary layer temps, intensity is critical for accumulation, although with most of the precip falling before 8 am, indirect sunlight won't be an issue, especially on grass (paved surfaces retain some daytime heat better, plus, they might have salt or residual salt on them). But keep in mind that once the snowfall rate exceeds the melting rate (probably about a 1/4" per hour melting rate at 33-34F surface temps at night), snow will accumulate and then snow falling after that will no longer melt at such a rate, since it'll be falling on top of snow, which, by definition, is 32F. Bottom line is if we get 1/2" per hour rates (moderate snowfall), we're going to accumulate, even on roads, at night. But locations only forecast to get 1-2" of snow over 6-7 hours (especially N/W of I-95 with less QPF), might not see much on the roads, due to melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 With marginal boundary layer temps, intensity is critical for accumulation, although with most of the precip falling before 8 am, indirect sunlight won't be an issue, especially on grass (paved surfaces retain some daytime heat better, plus, they might have salt or residual salt on them). But keep in mind that once the snowfall rate exceeds the melting rate (probably about a 1/4" per hour melting rate at 33-34F surface temps at night), snow will accumulate and then snow falling after that will no longer melt at such a rate, since it'll be falling on top of snow, which, by definition, is 32F. Bottom line is if we get 1/2" per hour rates (moderate snowfall), we're going to accumulate, even on roads, at night. But locations only forecast to get 1-2" of snow over 6-7 hours (especially N/W of I-95 with less QPF), might not see much on the roads, due to melting.when is the precip supposed to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 To be fair, this will be an interesting and difficult situation for schools out here... And to be fair 1-3 for NYC to Nassau county would be a fair statement. Don't need to go extreme and say 3-6 for NYC area.. but east of that amounts would go up. Dt, snow map as of 12pm today I thought was a pretty fair snow fall call.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Nams zilch north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 4k nam cuts totals for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.