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Friday 2/5 Coastal Storm Obs/Discussion Thread


Zelocita Weather

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They should at least aknowledge the models

 

I rarely break this out, I'm gonna do so now.

 

:axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:

 

I don't know what you think we do here man, but I can assure you we're looking at the models when we're debating snow ratios.

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I rarely break this out, I'm gonna do so now.

 

:axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:

 

I don't know what you think we do here man, but I can assure you we're looking at the models when we're debating snow ratios.

please he means no harm. He is like a untrained puppy that knows no boundaries 

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the roads tomorrow are going to be a nightmare. nobody is going to be prepared for this.

All depends on timing and changeover if any. As far as being prepared there was mention of it last night on all major news channels. If warranted you'll see them change their forecasts. Not sold on a 4-6" event for Smithtown just yet and if it does it would likely be a VERY wet/slushy snow. Typical LI paste job

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Not when its snowing at 1-2 inches an hour

Those rates are unlikely. The roads during the blizzard stayed quite slush covered for some time as they used brine on quite a few roads. Wether they use it again I can't say. But even if normal

Salt is used temps are going to be very close to marginal. Combined with wet snow it could be a slushy mess.

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please he means no harm. He is like a untrained puppy that knows no boundaries 

Think its a fair point.  Dont know the logistics required to put out an HWO, but i think something should be up by now.  12z guidance was consistent.    Timing seems like it would impact the morning rushhour.  

 

Its been 50's and rainy all week.  Without an HWO how will the Jance Huffs of the world have any clue it is about to snow ?

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You people aren't paying attention to soundings and timing of this.

The precip moves in at about 2am. By 4am, everyone is moderate to heavy snow. By 6am, it's easily accumulating.

 

Saying this wont accumulate is completely irresponsible of any meteorologist. Sorry.

 

3"-6" is the proper call right now. Period.

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You people aren't paying attention to soundings and timing of this.

The precip moves in at about 2am. By 4am, everyone is moderate to heavy snow. By 6am, it's easily accumulating.

 

Saying this wont accumulate is completely irresponsible of any meteorologist. Sorry.

 

3"-6" is the proper call right now. Period.

 

Well that settles it, then.

 

Period.

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Well that settles it, then.

 

Period.

 

Yes. If you are calling for less then 3" in the NYC boroughs, you are irresponsible as well and I hope you aren't responsible for a public forecast. In Manhattan's nasty cement factory, of course you wont see anything more then slush. But Manhattan does not represent the entire 5 boroughs.

 

Sorry. I didn't just start this and it's obvious. Look at dynamics. Not Jan. 2008.

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Tuesday: 

 

Like I said last year, with this kind of 300mb jet structure over us...I'm in the camp that the models will adjust the precip field and continue to edge west. 

 

Best forcing over Jersey

 

 

 

 

And its even gotten better since then. 

 

The HRRR is beautiful, but also a nightmare for the local WFOs 

 

e3dbf118bd2eb5bca80f01e77a2f3ad3.png

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It's more the attitude.

 

Then.

 

The attitude is needed because it's irresponsible how the meteorologists that the public depend on are acting. Telling people a coating to a slushy inch, when there is nothing that supports under 3" and the consensus is for 4"-6" is completely irresponsible and very dangerous for the morning commute.

 

Anyway,

I'm out. Everyone enjoy the 3"-6".

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You people aren't paying attention to soundings and timing of this.

The precip moves in at about 2am. By 4am, everyone is moderate to heavy snow. By 6am, it's easily accumulating.

Saying this wont accumulate is completely irresponsible of any meteorologist. Sorry.

3"-6" is the proper call right now. Period.

I haven't looked at soundings on the 12Z runs but I do know the 00z models last night looked to me like snow could fall earlier than many might be thinking. There was really a good amount of evaporative cooling potential and dry nose below 800mb, by 06z I remember there being only a 800-1000ft layer above freezing and that was at the surface, in general you will snow in that sort of sounding as anything under 1500ft on the above freezing surface layer and it will fall as snow. Evaporative cooling occurs faster with snow as well, so a forecast that has rain at 07z with a 39/26 spread will see temps go towards 32 much faster than a 39/26 spread with RA or RASN.

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Tuesday: 

 

 

 

 

And its even gotten better since then. 

 

The HRRR is beautiful, but also a nightmare for the local WFOs 

 

e3dbf118bd2eb5bca80f01e77a2f3ad3.png

 

 the bronx would prob jackpot in this this frame lol..i was alluding to that earlier about the city closer to the jackpot then isp.cooler right over us and warmer from eastern l.i up to boston.

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I haven't looked at soundings on the 12Z runs but I do know the 00z models last night looked to me like snow could fall earlier than many might be thinking. There was really a good amount of evaporative cooling potential and dry nose below 800mb, by 06z I remember there being only a 800-1000ft layer above freezing and that was at the surface, in general you will snow in that sort of sounding as anything under 1500ft on the above freezing surface layer and it will fall as snow. Evaporative cooling occurs faster with snow as well, so a forecast that has rain at 07z with a 39/26 spread will see temps go towards 32 much faster than a 39/26 spread with RA or RASN.

 

12z models deepened the Atlantic trough and delay the front further, allowing the developing coastal to move slower, hug the coast more and throw back precip further west. There's a 2-3 hour delay with rain to snow because of this but at the same time, we receive much heavier precip when it's cold enough.

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With marginal boundary layer temps, intensity is critical for accumulation, although with most of the precip falling before 8 am, indirect sunlight won't be an issue, especially on grass (paved surfaces retain some daytime heat better, plus, they might have salt or residual salt on them).  But keep in mind that once the snowfall rate exceeds the melting rate (probably about a 1/4" per hour melting rate at 33-34F surface temps at night), snow will accumulate and then snow falling after that will no longer melt at such a rate, since it'll be falling on top of snow, which, by definition, is 32F.  Bottom line is if we get 1/2" per hour rates (moderate snowfall), we're going to accumulate, even on roads, at night. But locations only forecast to get 1-2" of snow over 6-7 hours (especially N/W of I-95 with less QPF), might not see much on the roads, due to melting.  

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With marginal boundary layer temps, intensity is critical for accumulation, although with most of the precip falling before 8 am, indirect sunlight won't be an issue, especially on grass (paved surfaces retain some daytime heat better, plus, they might have salt or residual salt on them). But keep in mind that once the snowfall rate exceeds the melting rate (probably about a 1/4" per hour melting rate at 33-34F surface temps at night), snow will accumulate and then snow falling after that will no longer melt at such a rate, since it'll be falling on top of snow, which, by definition, is 32F. Bottom line is if we get 1/2" per hour rates (moderate snowfall), we're going to accumulate, even on roads, at night. But locations only forecast to get 1-2" of snow over 6-7 hours (especially N/W of I-95 with less QPF), might not see much on the roads, due to melting.

when is the precip supposed to start?
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To be fair, this will be an interesting and difficult situation for schools out here... And to be fair 1-3 for NYC to Nassau county would be a fair statement. Don't need to go extreme and say 3-6 for NYC area.. but east of that amounts would go up.

Dt, snow map as of 12pm today I thought was a pretty fair snow fall call..

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