BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html the squeeze job?..huge hybrid low in the atlantic moving west and a vigorous short wave coming east.consensus might say that n.y.c thru boston might do really well here with the intense forcing along the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 There is a reason why mets make forecasts and dont just take qpf and spit out snowfall totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 There is a reason why mets make forecasts and dont just take qpf and spit out snowfall totals Kinda like the blizzard...4-8...then 6-12...then 12-18...then 18-24...then 24-36 etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I think we all have some Jan 08 jitters on this one. (forecasts were for 4-12 inches depending on locale and many saw plain ol rain.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'll have an update later tonight. We're going over this during our afternoon discussion and will have a chance to listen to the Mt. Holly conference call. Only some minor changes could beef up accumulations. (Humble brag, but I did illustrate this potential on Monday) Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I think we all have some Jan 08 jitters on this one. (forecasts were for 4-12 inches depending on locale and many saw plain ol rain.) That one was the opposite in the modeling to this one . 2-3 days out had the heaviest snow and each successive run cut the snowfall totals right up to storm time. Worst fiasco ever on Eastern when the thread starter deleted the thread and no posters knew where to post their observations. Pretty crazy brawls broke out in that thread right before the deletion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Gonna be one of those events in the city where you'll have to be near a park to know that accumulation was happening. That's the majority of the events for Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Look at the experimental HRRR. The dynamics in place would technically trump a BL temp of 33-35 in some spots Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 That one was the opposite in the modeling to this one . 2-3 days out had the heaviest snow and each successive run cut the snowfall totals right up to storm time. Worst fiasco ever on Eastern when the thread starter deleted the thread and no posters knew where to post their observations. Pretty crazy brawls broke out in that thread right before the deletion. Makes sense-I don't remember the lead up, but I ended up with some slush here...it was a tough bust in an already tough winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I think we all have some Jan 08 jitters on this one. (forecasts were for 4-12 inches depending on locale and many saw plain ol rain.) You also need to take into account poor ratios. Even if it's all snow, the ratio might be less than 10:1. If NYC is sitting at around 0.50" or so that's 5", and 10:1 might be generous in this case. Then add on surface temps slightly above freezing and the fact that it's been warm enough this week that the ground has thawed considerably and it has "Go low on accumulations" written all over it. Could someone see 6"? Sure, but the exception rather than the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 HRRR has heavy snow for Southern CT, light snow for LHV and rain/snow hitting NYC BY 0300 ton morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Look at the experimental HRRR. The dynamics in place would technically trump a BL temp of 33-35 in some spots Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk The RAP continues to look impressive through the end of it's run. Still snowing at this frame back to the PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 You also need to take into account poor ratios. Even if it's all snow, the ratio might be less than 10:1. If NYC is sitting at around 0.50" or so that's 5", and 10:1 might be generous in this case. Then add on surface temps slightly above freezing and the fact that it's been warm enough this week that the ground has thawed considerably and it has "Go low on accumulations" written all over it. Could someone see 6"? Sure, but the exception rather than the norm. NYC is .50"-.1" on every model with the most locked in model, ukmet having .85". Consensus is around .65"-.80". Manhattan will definitely struggle but the boroughs will do just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The RAP continues to look impressive through the end of it's run. Still snowing at this frame back to the PA border. Wow.. Didn't even see that yet. Gotta take a look at those soundings when I get back. Thanks Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Is it possible this storm coming closer to the coast is going to cause wave 2 to get too close to us and thus cause wave 3 to miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 You also need to take into account poor ratios. Even if it's all snow, the ratio might be less than 10:1. If NYC is sitting at around 0.50" or so that's 5", and 10:1 might be generous in this case. Then add on surface temps slightly above freezing and the fact that it's been warm enough this week that the ground has thawed considerably and it has "Go low on accumulations" written all over it. Could someone see 6"? Sure, but the exception rather than the norm. This is a great point. Marginal temps and wet ground should make for poor ratios especially in areas where qpf will be less to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Is it possible this storm coming closer to the coast is going to cause wave 2 to get too close to us and thus cause wave 3 to miss. too far out to worry about that - SREFS coming in wetter and further west with precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 NYC is .50"-.1" on every model with the most locked in model, ukmet having .85". Consensus is around .65"-.80". Manhattan will definitely struggle but the boroughs will do just fine. Take your 0.75" at 8:1 and you get 6" but I think that's very generous at this point. Of course things could continue to trend West and I hope that it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Wow... Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Wow... Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Wow, I'm officially interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 srefs with another bump west. Anyone have plumes yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Wow... Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Seems like less than 2 weeks agonthe SREFs kept bumping QPF up.... that's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I dont know how much of a concern it is but Craig Allen posted earlier that if the storm comes too far west it would delay the cold air from coming into eastern sections until most of the precip has ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Can't wait to pull up some of the SREF soundings.... Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 RE: The SREFs... How many are amped up members of the always amped up ARW? Be careful when looking at the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I dont know how much of a concern it is but Craig Allen posted earlier that if the storm comes too far west it would delay the cold air from coming into eastern sections until most of the precip has ended I was wondering about that too-does wetter/further west mean less snow??? Hard to say IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I would NOT take the SREFS serious In terms of the extent of the precip shield... SREFS had 1+" all the way to KPOU for the blizzard and they didn't see a flake... I believe it for the city.. But I think the precip shield is way to big on the SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I was wondering about that too-does wetter/further west mean less snow??? Hard to say IMO I think if the storm continues to deepen and intensify south of our area it will help draw in colder air and cool the surface temps with heavier rates. Im just a hobbyist that also likes to Perform GM duties for the San Antonio Spurs on xbox in my spare time. so in short what do i know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 RE: The SREFs... How many are amped up members of the always amped up ARW? Be careful when looking at the means. At 9Z the ARW camp was roughly 25% above mean while NMB were roughly 25% below mean. Not as crazy as it sometimes gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 the roads tomorrow are going to be a nightmare. nobody is going to be prepared for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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