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Friday 2/5 Coastal Storm Obs/Discussion Thread


Zelocita Weather

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I'll have an update later tonight. We're going over this during our afternoon discussion and will have a chance to listen to the Mt. Holly conference call. 

 

Only some minor changes could beef up accumulations. 

 

(Humble brag, but I did illustrate this potential on Monday) 

Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk

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I think we all have some Jan 08 jitters on this one.  (forecasts were for 4-12 inches depending on locale and many saw plain ol rain.)

 

That one was the opposite in the modeling to this one . 2-3 days out had the heaviest snow and each successive

run cut the snowfall totals right up to storm time. Worst fiasco ever on Eastern when the thread starter deleted

the thread and no posters knew where to post their observations. Pretty crazy brawls broke out in that

thread right before the deletion.

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That one was the opposite in the modeling to this one . 2-3 days out had the heaviest snow and each successive

run cut the snowfall totals right up to storm time. Worst fiasco ever on Eastern when the thread starter deleted

the thread and no posters knew where to post their observations. Pretty crazy brawls broke out in that

thread right before the deletion.

Makes sense-I don't remember the lead up, but I ended up with some slush here...it was a tough bust in an already tough winter!

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I think we all have some Jan 08 jitters on this one.  (forecasts were for 4-12 inches depending on locale and many saw plain ol rain.)

You also need to take into account poor ratios. Even if it's all snow, the ratio might be less than 10:1. If NYC is sitting at around 0.50" or so that's 5", and 10:1 might be generous in this case. Then add on surface temps slightly above freezing and the fact that it's been warm enough this week that the ground has thawed considerably and it has "Go low on accumulations" written all over it. Could someone see 6"? Sure, but the exception rather than the norm.

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You also need to take into account poor ratios. Even if it's all snow, the ratio might be less than 10:1. If NYC is sitting at around 0.50" or so that's 5", and 10:1 might be generous in this case. Then add on surface temps slightly above freezing and the fact that it's been warm enough this week that the ground has thawed considerably and it has "Go low on accumulations" written all over it. Could someone see 6"? Sure, but the exception rather than the norm.

 

NYC is .50"-.1" on every model with the most locked in model, ukmet having .85".

Consensus is around .65"-.80".

Manhattan will definitely struggle but the boroughs will do just fine.

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You also need to take into account poor ratios. Even if it's all snow, the ratio might be less than 10:1. If NYC is sitting at around 0.50" or so that's 5", and 10:1 might be generous in this case. Then add on surface temps slightly above freezing and the fact that it's been warm enough this week that the ground has thawed considerably and it has "Go low on accumulations" written all over it. Could someone see 6"? Sure, but the exception rather than the norm.

This is a great point. Marginal temps and wet ground should make for poor ratios especially in areas where qpf will be less to the west

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NYC is .50"-.1" on every model with the most locked in model, ukmet having .85".

Consensus is around .65"-.80".

Manhattan will definitely struggle but the boroughs will do just fine.

Take your 0.75" at 8:1 and you get 6" but I think that's very generous at this point. Of course things could continue to trend West and I hope that it does.

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I dont know how much of a concern it is but Craig Allen posted earlier that if the storm comes too far west it would delay the cold air from coming into eastern sections until most of the precip has ended

I was wondering about that too-does wetter/further west mean less snow???   Hard to say IMO

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I was wondering about that too-does wetter/further west mean less snow???   Hard to say IMO

I think if the storm continues to deepen and intensify south of our area it will help draw in colder air and cool the surface temps with heavier rates. Im just a hobbyist that also likes to Perform GM duties for the San Antonio Spurs on xbox in my spare time. so in short what do i know 

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