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Friday 2/5 Coastal Storm Obs/Discussion Thread


Zelocita Weather

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NWS in Mt. Holly says slightly delayed changeover for the I-95 corridor to the coast, with more warm air to overcome than thought, but that they don't expect any change to snowfall amounts (just delayed by an hour or so - with 4-9 am being the snow time)

 

1115 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME EDITS TO THE HOURLY POP AND WX GRIDS
TO HOPEFULLY BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE, THE TREND WAS TO DELAY THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF RAIN-SNOW LINE BY 1-3 HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AS THERE
IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
OVERCOME INITIALLY.

DESPITE THIS DELAY IN THE CHANGEOVER, SNOW AMOUNTS WERE NOT
LOWERED AS STRONG DYNAMICAL COOLING AND HEAVIER PRECIP RATES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND AN INCH AN
HOUR DURING RUSH HOUR (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NJ) UNDER A
MESOSCALE BAND FORMING TO THE NW OF THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW.
THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 4-9
AM FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND BETWEEN 5 AND 10 AM FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE NJ AND DE COAST. THIS COINCIDES WITH RUSH HOUR, SO
PLEASE GIVE YOURSELF CONSIDERABLY EXTRA TIME TO GET TO YOUR
DESTINATION IN THE MORNING AND EVEN CONSIDER DELAYING YOUR TRAVEL
(IF POSSIBLE) IF THE ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED DURING RUSH HOUR.

ARGUABLY THERE IS A SLIGHT BOOST OF CONFIDENCE THAT SNOWFALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE SIMULATED SNOWFALL FROM THE
LATEST 00Z HRRRX USING A VARIABLE DENSITY JUST ABOUT MATCHES
OURS. THIS FORECAST PARAMETER FROM THE HRRRX PERFORMED EXTREMELY
WELL WITH THE BLIZZARD TWO WEEKS AGO THOUGH THE SETUPS FOR THESE
TWO EVENTS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT. NOTE THE PARAMETER FROM THE
HRRR/HRRRX OR ANY OTHER MODELS THAT ASSUMES A 10:1 SNOW RATIO FOR
THIS EVENT WILL BE OVERDONE AS IT DOESN`T TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
THERMAL PROFILES THAT ALTER THE MICROPHYSICS, MIXING AND SURFACE
MELTING (WHICH ALL ARE IMPORTANT FACTORS IN THIS EVENT).

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