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Friday 2/5 Coastal Storm Obs/Discussion Thread


Zelocita Weather

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It's raining hard enough to wet build here and we are creeping down. That's why I'm talking about a CCB needed. I think you might not want to be in LB for this. I see a high bust potential now not based on qpf like last year but just wasted precip. I think we flip to snow unlike 08 in the heavy heavy stuff before daybreak but there is a 50% chance we get a few slushy car too grass inches. I think the upside bust potential is much Lower. 10% or less for 8" plus in LB I think 4" is a good LB number and 3" park

Ehh, it will happen how it happens. These marginal events are always a surprise one way or another. I'd like to be around Smithtown or another Suffolk location near the sound with some elevation. 

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Welcome back!

 

Thank you WeatherFox. 

 

The 0z runs of the NAM & the RGEM were both slight steps backwards when measured against their 18z counterparts...not huge steps back; but definitely noticeable.

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Ehh, it will happen how it happens. These marginal events are always a surprise one way or another. I'd like to be around Smithtown or another Suffolk location near the sound with some elevation.

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Yeah April 96 had that amazing long island event. The urban heat island scares me. At least for me and snow removal. Getting a solid 8 hours OT looks shaky at best. I would love to be at 2-300' feet for this

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Yeah April 96 had that amazing long island event. The urban heat island scares me. At least for me and snow removal. Getting a solid 8 hours OT looks shaky at best. I would love to be at 2-300' feet for this

Freedom tower??

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Thank you WeatherFox.

The 0z runs of the NAM & the RGEM were both slight steps backwards when measured against their 18z counterparts...not huge steps back; but definitely noticeable.

Increased totals from nyc on west and cut down on totals east of nyc.
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Yeah April 96 had that amazing long island event. The urban heat island scares me. At least for me and snow removal. Getting a solid 8 hours OT looks shaky at best. I would love to be at 2-300' feet for this

I think this would be a situation where Manhattan pavement maybe has some slush, but the parks away from pavement has nice accumulation, if the heavy snow makes it that far. But another coin flip is that this will start overnight. 

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JFK will likely come in with the modest total this time around...a veritable 180 from the only other significant event so far...

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It's nowcast time. I think NWS forecast looks pretty solid. Someone is going to jackpot east of NYC under some banding. Don't rule out thundersnow

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00z surface map.   Temps forecasted to get down to the upper 30's per the 18z GFS MOS but with heavier falling snow temps should fall closer to freezing for accumulating snow.  I'm sticking with 1-2 inches for NYC with more in Nassau and Suffolk counties.

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JFK will likely come in with the modest total this time around...a veritable180 from the only other significant event so far...

Good call. All that pavement= no Bueno. It's raining pretty hard here on the south shore currently. Time will tell. But I would rather be up and out by you for a plaste bomb. Which some will see. I think someone in our area sees a foot.

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00z surface map. Temps forecasted to get down to the upper 30's per the 18z GFS MOS but with heavier falling snow temps should fall closer to freezing for accumulating snow. I'm sticking with 1-2 inches for NYC with more in Nassau and Suffolk counties.

Depends where in NYC. I think middle of Central Park will be more than the FDR on the East River. Northern Queens and the Bronx will do better than midtown. Overall, I think 2" is low. I like 4" at KNYC. I think LI is 4-6" and spots to 8". I think EWR is 3" and less to the West. When it's snowing good at 5am, I expect everyone to be between 31-34 degrees.

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BL looks warmer on the Gfs. Never gets below 35 in nyc

This jives with the latest MOS forecasts and current conditions.  I expect a change over but because of the wet pavement, warm ground and car traffic accumulation on the streets in NYC will be minimal.  On grass and car tops the 1-2 inches could accumulate in my opinion.  Time well tell.

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JFK will probably do okay, the temps now are more within reach for a changeover to be legit at 09z. The measurement at the airport may come in low but the guy across the bay in Cederhurst will measure 5 or 6 in his backyard

Allot more grass on that side. And this is a perfect example of one of those situations. It's going to rip snow everwhere in the met thanks to that insane subtropical moisture feed. Allot of it depends on are you grass or pavement surrounded

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Depends where in NYC. I think middle of Central Park will be more than the FDR on the East River. Northern Queens and the Bronx will do better than midtown. Overall, I think 2" is low. I like 4" at KNYC. I think LI is 4-6" and spots to 8". I think EWR is 3" and less to the West. When it's snowing good at 5am, I expect everyone to be between 31-34 degrees.

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Okay, good thoughts - Certainly more on grassy areas than streets.  We will see.

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Allot more grass on that side. And this is a perfect example of one of those situations. It's going to rip snow everwhere in the met thanks to that insane subtropical moisture feed. Allot of it depends on are you grass or pavement surrounded

This will be like March 99, I had 9 inches in Merrick and JFK despite being under similar echoes had 3 or 4

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