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Friday 2/5 Coastal Storm Obs/Discussion Thread


Zelocita Weather

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A lot of the cold is coming from dynamics once the heavy precip rates start. So for places near the coast, if the NAM is right and a lot of the precip is light to moderate, there might not be much accumulation. "The ground is too warm" also gets way too much play, but hen it's snowing only lightly and the ground is holding a lot of heat, it does have an impact. I remember March 15? 2004 was supposed to be a 4-8" event for NYC and it was only maybe a coating there, and the forecasted amounts happening in more suburban/rural areas.

Yea I remember that storm. I was actually thinking of that today when looking at the BL. I think we will overcome it and we'll accumulate when the precip is heavy. But anything light won't cut it.

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Yea I remember that storm. I was actually thinking of that today when looking at the BL. I think we will overcome it and we'll accumulate when the precip is heavy. But anything light won't cut it.

I remember waking up that morning and expecting a good half a foot on the ground, but there was maybe a coating on the grass only. That was the one event in the 2003-04 winter that disappointed. 

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Look at there warning.

Let me settle this warning stuff. A bunch of years ago Upton decided they split Suffolk into 4 sections: NE,NW,SE and SW when issuing their winter storm products. Today they decided to combine the eastern half together (SE/NE) and the western half together (SW/NW) into different warnings that have the same end result. I have no idea why they do it.

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A lot of the cold is coming from dynamics once the heavy precip rates start. So for places near the coast, if the NAM is right and a lot of the precip is light to moderate, there might not be much accumulation. "The ground is too warm" also gets way too much play, but hen it's snowing only lightly and the ground is holding a lot of heat, it does have an impact. I remember March 15? 2004 was supposed to be a 4-8" event for NYC and it was only maybe a coating there, and the forecasted amounts happening in more suburban/rural areas. 

 

That mid March event in 2004 was sort of strange...out here on L.I. I recorded 4.5" on March 16  -17...then a break...and 1.7" more from March 17 -18. 

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Let me settle this warning stuff. A bunch of years ago Upton decided they split Suffolk into 4 sections: NE,NW,SE and SW when issuing their winter storm products. Today they decided to combine the eastern half together and the western half together into different warnings that have the same end result. I have no idea why they do it.

 

It makes sense when the forecasts will be different...Here the forecasts are identical...so it makes no sense

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Let me settle this warning stuff. A bunch of years ago Upton decided they split Suffolk into 4 sections: NE,NW,SE and SW when issuing their winter storm products. Today they decided to combine the eastern half together (SE/NE) and the western half together (SW/NW) into different warnings that have the same end result. I have no idea why they do it.

Reason I mention only eastern,they hadn't updated there other warning...likely it's simply preferred method based on that meteorologists on duty tonight.

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Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --

000

FXUS61 KOKX 050238

AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

938 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --

WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND PASS

OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE

SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER OVER THE

WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE FOR SNOW DURING THE BEGINNING OF

NEXT WEEK. A COLD AIR MASS WILL THEN BRING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW

NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

ALL NEAR TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER

SNOWFALL AMTS PER HIGHER QPF AND AS COLDER/DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN

INTO THE AREA ATTM...AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF FALLING PRECIP

ALSO HELPS LOWER TEMPS FURTHER OVERNIGHT...AND AS SOME FAIRLY

STRONG BANDING FEATURES PER 00Z NAM/RAP DEVELOP NEARBY LATE

TONIGHT AND SWING ACROSS. HAVE INCREASED AMTS AT LEAST AN

INCH...AND MORE EAST OF NYC. AMTS ACROSS SE CT AND MUCH OF

CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND SHOULD NOW FALL INTO THE 5-8 INCH

RANGE...AND SO HAVE UPGRADED EXISTING ADVYS TO WINTER STORM

WARNINGS THERE.

THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. FIRST IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT

OF THE QUESTION THAT AMTS UP TO 6 INCHES COULD FALL A LITTLE

FARTHER WEST INTO SW CT AND NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL. SECOND...IF

COLDER AIR TAKES LONGER TO REACH THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AMTS

COULD STILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW 6 INCHES THERE. FINALLY...A SHARP

BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD MEANS THAT PARTS OF ORANGE COUNTY

COULD STILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE

THAT THE SE PORTION COULD STILL SEE AT LEAST 2-3 INCHES...EXPANDED

ADVYS TO THERE AND NEARBY WRN PASSAIC AS WELL.

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES PASS BY TO OUR SE ALONG A COLD

FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TWO WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO

MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THE SECOND

WAVE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SHIFT

THROUGH AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR

QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF

DAYS HAVE TRENDED WEST WITH QPF OUTPUT.

TEMPS STILL WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD COLDER NAM WHICH USUALLY DOES

BETTER IN WINTERTIME PRECIP SITUATIONS.

SKIES THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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A lot of the cold is coming from dynamics once the heavy precip rates start. So for places near the coast, if the NAM is right and a lot of the precip is light to moderate, there might not be much accumulation. "The ground is too warm" also gets way too much play, but hen it's snowing only lightly and the ground is holding a lot of heat, it does have an impact. I remember March 15? 2004 was supposed to be a 4-8" event for NYC and it was only maybe a coating there, and the forecasted amounts happening in more suburban/rural areas.

You know more about actual meteorological forecasting then me. Are we expecting a CCB cold air transport on top of dynamical cooling? It looks like it to me from the model presentation and wind vector forecasts. I don't think we can do It on dynamic cooling alone based on what I'm currently observing

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You know more about actual meteorological forecasting then me. Are we expecting a CCB cold air transport on top of dynamical cooling? It looks like it to me from the model presentation and wind vector forecasts. I don't think we can do It on dynamic cooling alone based on what I'm currently observing

It's not a mature CCB, but there's an element of it on this I think. This is a much different type of system than the March 2004 system (a clipper). It's more similar to the December 2008 disappointment (that was a pure miller B like Dec 2000), but there are still differences. It's really how fast cold air can advance behind the cold front, and how far west the heavy precip can advance into that cold air. If the majority of models are right, it can be a nice event back into NYC. If it's more like the NAM, it could be light slushy snow that barely accumulates. You'll need the good, steady rates. 

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It's not a mature CCB, but there's an element of it on this I think. This is a much different type of system than the March 2004 system (a clipper). It's more similar to the December 2008 disappointment (that was a pure miller B like Dec 2000), but there are still differences. It's really how fast cold air can advance behind the cold front, and how far west the heavy precip can advance into that cold air. If the majority of models are right, it can be a nice event back into NYC. If it's more like the NAM, it could be light slushy snow that barely accumulates. You'll need the good, steady rates.

It's raining hard enough to wet build here and we are creeping down. That's why I'm talking about a CCB needed. I think you might not want to be in LB for this. I see a high bust potential now not based on qpf like last year but just wasted precip. I think we flip to snow unlike 08 in the heavy heavy stuff before daybreak but there is a 50% chance we get a few slushy car too grass inches. I think the upside bust potential is much Lower. 10% or less for 8" plus in LB I think 4" is a good LB number and 3" park

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It's raining hard enough to wet build here and we are creeping down. That's why I'm talking about a CCB needed. I think you might not want to be in LB for this. I see a high bust potential now not based on qpf like last year but just wasted precip. I think we flip to snow unlike 08 in the heavy heavy stuff before daybreak but there is a 50% chance we get a few slushy car too grass inches. I think the upside bust potential is much Lower. 10% or less for 8" plus in LB

The HRRR has been remarkably consistent showing a sudden flip to snow 08-09z

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