Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 RGEM coming in and looks decent even for west of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 A lot of the cold is coming from dynamics once the heavy precip rates start. So for places near the coast, if the NAM is right and a lot of the precip is light to moderate, there might not be much accumulation. "The ground is too warm" also gets way too much play, but hen it's snowing only lightly and the ground is holding a lot of heat, it does have an impact. I remember March 15? 2004 was supposed to be a 4-8" event for NYC and it was only maybe a coating there, and the forecasted amounts happening in more suburban/rural areas. Yea I remember that storm. I was actually thinking of that today when looking at the BL. I think we will overcome it and we'll accumulate when the precip is heavy. But anything light won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 RGEM coming in and looks decent even for west of the city Would u say west of 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yea I remember that storm. I was actually thinking of that today when looking at the BL. I think we will overcome it and we'll accumulate when the precip is heavy. But anything light won't cut it. I remember waking up that morning and expecting a good half a foot on the ground, but there was maybe a coating on the grass only. That was the one event in the 2003-04 winter that disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 They should of simply did Suffolk county as a whole,way to confusing to have 2 separate warnings for Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Look at there warning. Let me settle this warning stuff. A bunch of years ago Upton decided they split Suffolk into 4 sections: NE,NW,SE and SW when issuing their winter storm products. Today they decided to combine the eastern half together (SE/NE) and the western half together (SW/NW) into different warnings that have the same end result. I have no idea why they do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 A lot of the cold is coming from dynamics once the heavy precip rates start. So for places near the coast, if the NAM is right and a lot of the precip is light to moderate, there might not be much accumulation. "The ground is too warm" also gets way too much play, but hen it's snowing only lightly and the ground is holding a lot of heat, it does have an impact. I remember March 15? 2004 was supposed to be a 4-8" event for NYC and it was only maybe a coating there, and the forecasted amounts happening in more suburban/rural areas. That mid March event in 2004 was sort of strange...out here on L.I. I recorded 4.5" on March 16 -17...then a break...and 1.7" more from March 17 -18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Let me settle this warning stuff. A bunch of years ago Upton decided they split Suffolk into 4 sections: NE,NW,SE and SW when issuing their winter storm products. Today they decided to combine the eastern half together and the western half together into different warnings that have the same end result. I have no idea why they do it. It makes sense when the forecasts will be different...Here the forecasts are identical...so it makes no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Would u say west of 18z? Definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Can someone post latest rgem and also latest hrrr and rap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It makes sense when the forecasts will be different...Here the forecasts are identical...so it makes no sense That was my point haha. Anyway, it's a warning for all of Suffolk (as you know). Let's move it along lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Are there any warning for Passaic county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Let me settle this warning stuff. A bunch of years ago Upton decided they split Suffolk into 4 sections: NE,NW,SE and SW when issuing their winter storm products. Today they decided to combine the eastern half together (SE/NE) and the western half together (SW/NW) into different warnings that have the same end result. I have no idea why they do it. Reason I mention only eastern,they hadn't updated there other warning...likely it's simply preferred method based on that meteorologists on duty tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 That was my point haha. Anyway, it's a warning for all of Suffolk (as you know). Let's move it along lol. One difference, the change over... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. -- 000 FXUS61 KOKX 050238 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 938 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion -- WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND PASS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE FOR SNOW DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD AIR MASS WILL THEN BRING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- ALL NEAR TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMTS PER HIGHER QPF AND AS COLDER/DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN INTO THE AREA ATTM...AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF FALLING PRECIP ALSO HELPS LOWER TEMPS FURTHER OVERNIGHT...AND AS SOME FAIRLY STRONG BANDING FEATURES PER 00Z NAM/RAP DEVELOP NEARBY LATE TONIGHT AND SWING ACROSS. HAVE INCREASED AMTS AT LEAST AN INCH...AND MORE EAST OF NYC. AMTS ACROSS SE CT AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND SHOULD NOW FALL INTO THE 5-8 INCH RANGE...AND SO HAVE UPGRADED EXISTING ADVYS TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS THERE. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. FIRST IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AMTS UP TO 6 INCHES COULD FALL A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO SW CT AND NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL. SECOND...IF COLDER AIR TAKES LONGER TO REACH THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AMTS COULD STILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW 6 INCHES THERE. FINALLY...A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD MEANS THAT PARTS OF ORANGE COUNTY COULD STILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE SE PORTION COULD STILL SEE AT LEAST 2-3 INCHES...EXPANDED ADVYS TO THERE AND NEARBY WRN PASSAIC AS WELL. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES PASS BY TO OUR SE ALONG A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TWO WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SHIFT THROUGH AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE TRENDED WEST WITH QPF OUTPUT. TEMPS STILL WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD COLDER NAM WHICH USUALLY DOES BETTER IN WINTERTIME PRECIP SITUATIONS. SKIES THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Are there any warning for Passaic county.. http://www.weather.gov/okx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Down to 41℉ with yard sensor, 42.9℉ and falling with roof sensor. Temps are dropping fairly quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Are there any warning for Passaic county.. No. Only Suffolk Cty LI and SE CT have warnings. Rest are advisories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yea thx if would be great to have warning for our area...but will take anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 A lot of the cold is coming from dynamics once the heavy precip rates start. So for places near the coast, if the NAM is right and a lot of the precip is light to moderate, there might not be much accumulation. "The ground is too warm" also gets way too much play, but hen it's snowing only lightly and the ground is holding a lot of heat, it does have an impact. I remember March 15? 2004 was supposed to be a 4-8" event for NYC and it was only maybe a coating there, and the forecasted amounts happening in more suburban/rural areas. You know more about actual meteorological forecasting then me. Are we expecting a CCB cold air transport on top of dynamical cooling? It looks like it to me from the model presentation and wind vector forecasts. I don't think we can do It on dynamic cooling alone based on what I'm currently observing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Can someone post latest rgem and also latest hrrr and rap? rgem looks great general 3-7 inches NYC and east. Nice little eventSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 You know more about actual meteorological forecasting then me. Are we expecting a CCB cold air transport on top of dynamical cooling? It looks like it to me from the model presentation and wind vector forecasts. I don't think we can do It on dynamic cooling alone based on what I'm currently observing It's not a mature CCB, but there's an element of it on this I think. This is a much different type of system than the March 2004 system (a clipper). It's more similar to the December 2008 disappointment (that was a pure miller B like Dec 2000), but there are still differences. It's really how fast cold air can advance behind the cold front, and how far west the heavy precip can advance into that cold air. If the majority of models are right, it can be a nice event back into NYC. If it's more like the NAM, it could be light slushy snow that barely accumulates. You'll need the good, steady rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 To my untrained eye while rgem ticked west the hrrr looked to have ticked slightly east. At least the snow map seems to have shrunk in Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NEWARK already getting sleet pellets mixing in, shows how cold that 2K-5K layer is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 That mid March event in 2004 was sort of strange...out here on L.I. I recorded 4.5" on March 16 -17...then a break...and 1.7" more from March 17 -18. Welcome back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Down to 41℉ with yard sensor, 42.9℉ and falling with roof sensor. Temps are dropping fairly quickly ..39.0* here..w/ light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 the nam hasnt run for 0z yet, right? Here is the 00Z NAM, just about 2 inches for NYC for this one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It's not a mature CCB, but there's an element of it on this I think. This is a much different type of system than the March 2004 system (a clipper). It's more similar to the December 2008 disappointment (that was a pure miller B like Dec 2000), but there are still differences. It's really how fast cold air can advance behind the cold front, and how far west the heavy precip can advance into that cold air. If the majority of models are right, it can be a nice event back into NYC. If it's more like the NAM, it could be light slushy snow that barely accumulates. You'll need the good, steady rates. It's raining hard enough to wet build here and we are creeping down. That's why I'm talking about a CCB needed. I think you might not want to be in LB for this. I see a high bust potential now not based on qpf like last year but just wasted precip. I think we flip to snow unlike 08 in the heavy heavy stuff before daybreak but there is a 50% chance we get a few slushy car too grass inches. I think the upside bust potential is much Lower. 10% or less for 8" plus in LB I think 4" is a good LB number and 3" park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It's raining hard enough to wet build here and we are creeping down. That's why I'm talking about a CCB needed. I think you might not want to be in LB for this. I see a high bust potential now not based on qpf like last year but just wasted precip. I think we flip to snow unlike 08 in the heavy heavy stuff before daybreak but there is a 50% chance we get a few slushy car too grass inches. I think the upside bust potential is much Lower. 10% or less for 8" plus in LB The HRRR has been remarkably consistent showing a sudden flip to snow 08-09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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