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Friday 2/5 Coastal Storm Obs/Discussion Thread


Zelocita Weather

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18z GEM-LAM has 8-10" for pretty much all of nassau/suffolk according to weeniebell snowmaps. 5-6" for NYC.

 

Amazing hit on the Canadien LAM...which has been great since it was commissioned...especially over central Long Island:

post-747-0-41239700-1454637435_thumb.gif

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

856 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...COASTAL LOW TO BRING SNOW TO REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

NYZ079-081-051100-

/O.UPG.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.160205T0600Z-160205T1800Z/

/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0002.160205T0800Z-160205T2000Z/

NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-

856 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY. THE

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW TO HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND

REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO THE LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO

FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME ALL SNOW. THE CHANGEOVER WILL TAKE

PLACE CLOSE TO DAYBREAK FROM THE RIVERHEAD AREA WEST...AND

DURING THE MORNING RUSH FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FORKS. THE SNOW

WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT

SNOWFALL...BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS WILL

IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...

AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

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Nams not impressed for anyone north of NYC

 

Subsequent to 1 AM you have that second purple on the NAM over the East End which is getting close to 2.00 L.E.....which is crazy high...they probably won't go to snow before 4 or 5 AM...but shows there is quite the push of moisture up the coast...

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There will be a sharp cutoff again, just the nature of the game in these storms. It will likely be west of NYC, but west of I-287 looks to be in trouble. This will be a quick hitter unlike the last storm, so I don't think there will be many amounts over 8", but tomorrow AM's commute is likely to be a disaster given how it sneaked up on people. My parents told me tonight "it's gonna snow tomorrow?"

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

856 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...COASTAL LOW TO BRING SNOW TO REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

NYZ078-080-051100-

/O.UPG.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.160205T0600Z-160205T1500Z/

/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0002.160205T0800Z-160205T2000Z/

NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-

856 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY. THE

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED

VISIBILITIES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO THE LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE

INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...BLOWING

SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH

HOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND BLOWING

SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN

AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA

FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN

EMERGENCY.

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attachicon.gifImageUploadedByTapatalk1454639224.683374.jpg

Still snowing after this, so 8-12" for parts of LI

 

Nice to see you W.G.  For those not familiar with the topography of Long Island, that area really buried on the HRRR is the very hilly section of the Island right on the Nassau / Suffolk border.  The area is called the "West Hills" and maxes out at about 400' a.s.l.  Quite possibly the spot on the Island with the highest average annual snowfall....and the mesoscale models invariably pick up on this. 

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Yeah but it feels a little to much like that 08 rain to rain to rain event for comfort. At least right now. Light rain and way to warm currently in wantagh

A lot of the cold is coming from dynamics once the heavy precip rates start. So for places near the coast, if the NAM is right and a lot of the precip is light to moderate, there might not be much accumulation. "The ground is too warm" also gets way too much play, but hen it's snowing only lightly and the ground is holding a lot of heat, it does have an impact. I remember March 15? 2004 was supposed to be a 4-8" event for NYC and it was only maybe a coating there, and the forecasted amounts happening in more suburban/rural areas. 

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Yeah but it feels a little to much like that 08 rain to rain to rain event for comfort. At least right now. Light rain and way to warm currently in wantagh

 

Was the HRRR running back then? RAP? I dont remember. i think short range modeling is better now, 8 years later. The short range models all flip us to snow, so im more confident.

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