dmillz25 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 SREFs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Down to 43, lower then forecast hourly temp. ..i'm down to 42.9*@830pm..still a long way to go..i think the bust potential is pretty high in re: to some of the #'s i'm hearing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 SREFs? Love this model page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 21z SREF Plume for LGA Mean snowfall: 6.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 18z GEM-LAM has 8-10" for pretty much all of nassau/suffolk according to weeniebell snowmaps. 5-6" for NYC. Amazing hit on the Canadien LAM...which has been great since it was commissioned...especially over central Long Island: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 WINTER STORM WARNING EASTERN SUFFOLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NWS updating their snow totals. Now 3-5 for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 856 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 ...COASTAL LOW TO BRING SNOW TO REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY... NYZ079-081-051100- /O.UPG.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.160205T0600Z-160205T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0002.160205T0800Z-160205T2000Z/ NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 856 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY. * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW TO HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO THE LOWER 30S. * TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME ALL SNOW. THE CHANGEOVER WILL TAKE PLACE CLOSE TO DAYBREAK FROM THE RIVERHEAD AREA WEST...AND DURING THE MORNING RUSH FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FORKS. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Nams not impressed for anyone north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Nams not impressed for anyone north of NYC upton expanded WWA for 2-4 to include orange and N Passaic county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 WINTER STORM WARNING EASTERN SUFFOLK All of suffolk warned for 5-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Nams not impressed for anyone north of NYC Subsequent to 1 AM you have that second purple on the NAM over the East End which is getting close to 2.00 L.E.....which is crazy high...they probably won't go to snow before 4 or 5 AM...but shows there is quite the push of moisture up the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 All of suffolk warned for 5-8 Looks like just Riverhead east. WWA west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 There will be a sharp cutoff again, just the nature of the game in these storms. It will likely be west of NYC, but west of I-287 looks to be in trouble. This will be a quick hitter unlike the last storm, so I don't think there will be many amounts over 8", but tomorrow AM's commute is likely to be a disaster given how it sneaked up on people. My parents told me tonight "it's gonna snow tomorrow?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 All of suffolk warned for 5-8 Nassau also 4-6 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The HRRR seems to be pushing the end time continually back, it's now still showing snow at 17z, albeit light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Messiah94 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like just Riverhead east. WWA west of there. Its all of Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 HRRRX has now 0.8" LE in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 HRRRX has now 0.8" LE in the city.Was it less or more before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like just Riverhead east. WWA west of there. Nope. All of suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The wind directions right now also indicate this may be coming further west than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Still snowing after this, so 8-12" for parts of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NAM is only 2 inches for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like just Riverhead east. WWA west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 856 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 ...COASTAL LOW TO BRING SNOW TO REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY... NYZ078-080-051100- /O.UPG.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.160205T0600Z-160205T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0002.160205T0800Z-160205T2000Z/ NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- 856 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO THE LOWER 30S. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NAM is only 2 inches for the city. I think it's about time now for now-casting and following the short-range models. The NAM is also a pretty big outlier if it's showing that low an amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The wind directions right now also indicate this may be coming further west than modeled Yeah but it feels a little to much like that 08 rain to rain to rain event for comfort. At least right now. Light rain and way to warm currently in wantagh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1454639224.683374.jpg Still snowing after this, so 8-12" for parts of LI Nice to see you W.G. For those not familiar with the topography of Long Island, that area really buried on the HRRR is the very hilly section of the Island right on the Nassau / Suffolk border. The area is called the "West Hills" and maxes out at about 400' a.s.l. Quite possibly the spot on the Island with the highest average annual snowfall....and the mesoscale models invariably pick up on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yeah but it feels a little to much like that 08 rain to rain to rain event for comfort. At least right now. Light rain and way to warm currently in wantagh A lot of the cold is coming from dynamics once the heavy precip rates start. So for places near the coast, if the NAM is right and a lot of the precip is light to moderate, there might not be much accumulation. "The ground is too warm" also gets way too much play, but hen it's snowing only lightly and the ground is holding a lot of heat, it does have an impact. I remember March 15? 2004 was supposed to be a 4-8" event for NYC and it was only maybe a coating there, and the forecasted amounts happening in more suburban/rural areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yeah but it feels a little to much like that 08 rain to rain to rain event for comfort. At least right now. Light rain and way to warm currently in wantagh Was the HRRR running back then? RAP? I dont remember. i think short range modeling is better now, 8 years later. The short range models all flip us to snow, so im more confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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