UnionWeatherWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 This is probably what it feels like to be Denver . 48/34. Cloudy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 NWS is calling for 2-4 in Rockland now, I seriously doubt it Based off ALL the short term guidance, most of the LHV sees 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 if the general nyc metro cools alot quicker than modeled... shouldnt we be looking at some more bold accumulations? im in southern bergen and already at 40 forecast this morning said only 48 by now fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Already down to 44℉ with a north wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Most of the cooling's going to come with dynamic cooling as the rain changes to snow and comes down mod-heavy during the morning. Looks like a 4-7" event for most, except a couple of inches west of I-287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Here is the 12Z NAM for KNYC. First a little rain the followed by "some" snow. For continuity, I or someone else can post the 18Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Quickly cooling off. 30s now showing up nw http://www.njweather.org/maps/nj-statewide-air-temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 if the general nyc metro cools alot quicker than modeled... shouldnt we be looking at some more bold accumulations? im in southern bergen and already at 40 forecast this morning said only 48 by now fingers crossed You sure about that temp? Its mostly upper 40s in that area still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Temp here rose two degrees to 46 in a break from the rain. Long way to go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The experimental HRRR 24, absolutely CRUSHES NYC points east, Long Island sees a foot plus.. Easily, even with crappy ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Park still at 49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks very nice over my area in NW NJ. Interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 You sure about that temp? Its mostly upper 40s in that area stillit says 42 nowmight be an error with my weather station or the altitude might have an influence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks very nice over my area in NW NJ. Interesting for sure. You might get higher amounts than me going by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 No, what you did was copied the 12:57 update, here's the update... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES PASS BY TO OUR SE ALONG A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TWO WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SHIFT THROUGH AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE TRENDED WEST WITH QPF OUTPUT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF 12ZWPC/GGEM/NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WITH A FEW SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS. WITH THE CWA ON THE BACKSIDE AND NEAR THE EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE A SOMEWHAT SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. COMPLICATING THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF WHEN THERMAL PROFILES COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND WET BULB-ZERO HEIGHTS...PCPN STARTS AS RAIN TONIGHT. THEN AS COLDER AIR GETS DRAWN IN WITH A NORTH WIND...AN EVENTUAL MIX AND CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS DURING THE LATER HOURS. LOOKS LIKE BY DAYBREAK...MIXING COULD STILL BE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND...BUT OTHERWISE...SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. BASED ON MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORECAST...BANDED SNOW IS POSSIBLE...BUT AS ALWAYS...THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER ARE THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THIS EVENT....AND THAT DYNAMIC COOLING COULD BE TEMPERED BY THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER ALOFT. COMBINED WITH THE BANDING UNCERTAINTY...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL TOTALS ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AT THIS TIME...BUT AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW COULD RESULT IN AMOUNTS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES ABOVE THE CURRENT FORECAST. BEST CHANCE OF WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL WOULD BE OVER NEW LONDON COUNTY...BUT EVEN HERE HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES. FOR TEMPS...WEIGHTED THEM TOWARD THE 2-METER NAM NUMBERS AS A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IS USUALLY TOO HIGH IN THESE SITUATIONS. SKIES THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. I'm aware what I did but again, really no change and in fact perhaps more variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Starting to rain in Sayreville. 48* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'm aware what I did but again, really no change and in fact perhaps more variables. No change? They had 1-3 this morning... If you ask me,uping to 4-6 seems like an increase to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The experimental HRRR 24, absolutely CRUSHES NYC points east, Long Island sees a foot plus.. Easily, even with crappy ratios I'd be careful using the HRRR at the end of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 New rap crushes nyc with near a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 New rap crushes nyc with near a foot. Good trends yes but let's not carried away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Good trends yes but let's not carried away If this trends anymore west it may not be as far fetched as you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 If this trends anymore west it may not be as far fetched as you think.What he said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 18z GEM-LAM has 8-10" for pretty much all of nassau/suffolk according to weeniebell snowmaps. 5-6" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 46/32. Dew point dropped a bit from the 34 earlier. Occasional drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Down to 43, lower then forecast hourly temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 the nam hasnt run for 0z yet, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 the nam hasnt run for 0z yet, right? Around 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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