mikeysed Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Can someone post latest hrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 GFS came in further west wow and the best qpf is when we snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 1.00 + back to ewr 1.25 into queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Can someone post latest hrrrr Still snowing on latest HRRR at 6am, 3" for most of NYC points east by then, and 1-2 for mostly everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 18z GFS max res. Don't shoot the messenger. These maps aren't showing much for the coast because of the BL, subject to error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 18z GFS max res. Don't shoot the messenger. These maps aren't showing much for the coast because of the BL, subject to error. This map is incorrect my sv maps are diff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 This map is incorrect my sv maps are diff I'm using the max res version on SV. The regular version does show quite a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 18z GFS and 18z Rgem both have 5"-8" for ENJ, NYC, SCT and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Gfs 18z has 4-8 for the metro area and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 If the best forcing is over Jersey then I wouldn't be surprised if things ended up even more west of where models depict currently. That could place the metro near the JP zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Upton seems to think 6 only if it shifts west. I'm thing 2-4" of paste for central Suffolk county. East of Ridge MAY SEE A BIT MORE. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER...AND DEEPER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALSO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND HOW HEAVY THE PRECIPITATION IS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE A WET ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF NYC...ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A FARTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW LONDON CONNECTICUT. WITH THE COLD AIR SLOWER TO MOVE IN HAVE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WEST AND NEAR 3 INCHES FAR EASTERN AREAS...EXTREME EASTERN NEW LONDON...AND MONTAUK POINT. ANY FARTHER SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD RESULT IN FAR EASTERN REGIONS APPROACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY They haven't updated the discussion yet that's old! 4-6+ for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 My boss basically laughed me off when I said he should have us come in early or stay overnight for snow removal. And he follows the weather (somewhat). So the general public is in for a big surprise tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 They haven't updated the discussion yet that's old! 4-6+ for my area Just looked at the 4:41 update and really only added possibility of higher accumulations of banding were to setup. Also mention the time change for rain to snow having an impact on accumulations. Still think 6" is high for anyone other than maybe the twin fork area. Which would be you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 My boss basically laughed me off when I said he should have us come in early or stay overnight for snow removal. And he follows the weather (somewhat). So the general public is in for a big surprise tomorrow morning I work for a school district. I have to be in at 3:30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Just looked at the 4:41 update and really only added possibility of higher accumulations of banding were to setup. Also mention the time change for rain to snow having an impact on accumulations. Still think 6" is high for anyone other than maybe the twin fork area. Which would be you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 My boss basically laughed me off when I said he should have us come in early or stay overnight for snow removal. And he follows the weather (somewhat). So the general public is in for a big surprise tomorrow morning There may be a surprise for NYC on east, I think this is going to underperform north and northwest of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 There may be a surprise for NYC on east, I think this is going to underperform north and northwest of NYC How can something that's not even a real threat for an area underperform? This was always a NYC east job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Beautiful dynamic cooling depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thundersnowWow that would be perfect the way this storm has trended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thundersnow Look how convective the HRRR is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Here was the GEM-LAM from 12Z, I'm waiting to see what the 18Z brings. Didn't see it mentioned, my apologies if it was. The 15mm covering LI works out to be .59" liquid. I wouldn't be surprised to see some 6" amounts around the Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thundersnowwhere whould this mystical thundersnow occur?southern bergen county in it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The 18z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 How can something that's not even a real threat for an area underperform? This was always a NYC east job NWS is calling for 2-4 in Rockland now, I seriously doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 18z GFS and 18z Rgem both have 5"-8" for ENJ, NYC, SCT and LI. If so, this would be one of those catch up heavy wet snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The 18z RGEM: That's nuts. That's .78" liquid as snow out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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