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Friday 2/5 Coastal Storm Obs/Discussion Thread


Zelocita Weather

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Nams zilch north of NYC

Here is the new point and click for Sloatsburg in Rockland County: Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind 5 to 7 mph.

Friday

Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 39. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. North wind 8 to 11 mph.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 25. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.

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Weather is certainly exciting as is the testament of many of us here on this and other weather boards.  While the NWS is mentioning the potential of a storm in their AFD's so far the Official Forecast is tame.  I'm in Florida, and imagine you guys are hoping for a repeat snow storm.  Good luck!

 

NYZ072-042300-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
1227 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLEARING. BREEZY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ008>010-012-015>019-PAZ070-071-101>106-
051000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.160205T0600Z-160205T1500Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...
NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...
DOYLESTOWN
327 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM
EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY, EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND NORTHERN DELAWARE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON UNPAVED SURFACES.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN, BUT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL OVERNIGHT THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL IMPACT THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR AND
COULD CAUSE SLICK SPOTS, MAINLY ON SECONDARY ROADWAYS AS WELL
AS ON SIDEWALKS.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

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Man this system plays right into noted biases of these models this year.  Consistently underdoing heights over the anomalously warm water off the Atlantic coast, and more contribution from the southern stream than the models pick up on initially (El Nino year).  Third or fourth straight storm we've seen major north/westward movements as we've been inside 48 hours.

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Man this system plays right into noted biases of these models this year.  Consistently underdoing heights over the anomalously warm water off the Atlantic coast, and more contribution from the southern stream than the models pick up on initially (El Nino year).  Third or fourth straight storm we've seen major north/westward movements as we've been inside 48 hours.

 

It seems every storm in January and February 2014 did the same

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1800Z surface map.  So here we go with a catch up storm.  It is always a challenge to forecast a rain changing to snow event.   Positive is it is occurring at night with negatives it is happening at the back end, ground initially warm, wet, and is short period event.  I see the heavier precip shield further east.   Forecast for NYC is  ?

 

anyway 1-3 inches  :)

post-1009-0-84029400-1454620223_thumb.gi

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Winter weather advisory in effect here. 2-4 inches

Same for Manhattan:

 

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

409 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

NYZ072-051100-

NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-

409 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN RAIN AND

SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. BREEZY AND

COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE

AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. BREEZY WITH

HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO

30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.

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Upton seems to think 6 only if it shifts west. I'm thing 2-4" of paste for central Suffolk county. East of Ridge MAY SEE A BIT MORE.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WITH

ANOTHER...AND DEEPER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW

FAR EAST THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG

THE BOUNDARY. ALSO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER WILL

DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND HOW HEAVY THE

PRECIPITATION IS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE A WET

ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF NYC...ACROSS LONG

ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS

STILL WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN

FOR A FARTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF

SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW

LONDON CONNECTICUT. WITH THE COLD AIR SLOWER TO MOVE IN HAVE LESS

THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WEST AND NEAR 3 INCHES FAR EASTERN

AREAS...EXTREME EASTERN NEW LONDON...AND MONTAUK POINT.

ANY FARTHER SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD RESULT IN FAR EASTERN REGIONS

APPROACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY

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