rgwp96 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Nams zilch north of NYC nam was horrible for the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 18z nam has .50+ from ttn-nyc very sharp gradient west of there to nothing in far nw jersey How much is it showing for our area? central and southern Nj .75+ and LI is over a inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Nams zilch north of NYCHere is the new point and click for Sloatsburg in Rockland County: TonightMostly cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind 5 to 7 mph. Friday Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 39. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. North wind 8 to 11 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 25. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Weather is certainly exciting as is the testament of many of us here on this and other weather boards. While the NWS is mentioning the potential of a storm in their AFD's so far the Official Forecast is tame. I'm in Florida, and imagine you guys are hoping for a repeat snow storm. Good luck! NYZ072-042300-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-1227 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016.THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWESTWINDS AROUND 10 MPH..TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCEOF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT..FRIDAY...CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLEARING. BREEZY WITH HIGHSIN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH..FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO10 MPH..SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDSAROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON..SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMINGPARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S..SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S..SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S..MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S..MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWSIN THE LOWER 30S..TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN ACHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OFPRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT..TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S..WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 4k nam cuts totals for all. For CT too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 HRRR last 3 frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Strongly suspect Uptonc omes out with the following within the hour WWA for KNYC and 6 boroughs: 3-5 inches WSW for Suffolk on East: 5-7 with locally higher amounts to FOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 HRRR says everyone from LHV points south and East has 1-2" by 5am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ327 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ008>010-012-015>019-PAZ070-071-101>106-051000-/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.160205T0600Z-160205T1500Z/NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN327 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM ESTFRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AMEST FRIDAY.* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY, EASTERNPENNSYLVANIA, AND NORTHERN DELAWARE.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH THEHIGHEST AMOUNTS ON UNPAVED SURFACES.* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN, BUT AS TEMPERATURESFALL OVERNIGHT THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW DURINGTHE OVERNIGHT HOURS.* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL IMPACT THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR ANDCOULD CAUSE SLICK SPOTS, MAINLY ON SECONDARY ROADWAYS AS WELLAS ON SIDEWALKS.* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Man this system plays right into noted biases of these models this year. Consistently underdoing heights over the anomalously warm water off the Atlantic coast, and more contribution from the southern stream than the models pick up on initially (El Nino year). Third or fourth straight storm we've seen major north/westward movements as we've been inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I would agree that the consensus is further West than yesterday, and significantly at that, but something like this is still on the table and needs to be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Man this system plays right into noted biases of these models this year. Consistently underdoing heights over the anomalously warm water off the Atlantic coast, and more contribution from the southern stream than the models pick up on initially (El Nino year). Third or fourth straight storm we've seen major north/westward movements as we've been inside 48 hours. It seems every storm in January and February 2014 did the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 18z RGEM looks better looking @ the precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 So odd, just took a peak at the hi res RGEM from 12z.... It's a complete miss for everyone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 So odd, just took a peak at the hi res RGEM from 12z.... It's a complete miss for everyone lol 18z RGEM looks good from NYC east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Rgem shifted west. Looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 1800Z surface map. So here we go with a catch up storm. It is always a challenge to forecast a rain changing to snow event. Positive is it is occurring at night with negatives it is happening at the back end, ground initially warm, wet, and is short period event. I see the heavier precip shield further east. Forecast for NYC is ? anyway 1-3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Winter weather advisory in effect here. 2-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Winter weather advisory in effect here. 2-4 inches Makes sense didn't really expect them to issue any warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Makes sense didn't really expect them to issue any warnings they can always bump up any area that meets warning criteria. I'd say 2-4 is a good call given the possible issues with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Winter weather advisory in effect here. 2-4 inches Same for Manhattan: ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 409 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 NYZ072-051100- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- 409 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. BREEZY AND COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. BREEZY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 they can always bump up any area that meets warning criteria. I'd say 2-4 is a good call given the possible issues with this one 3 to 5 with locally higher amounts for us SW CT folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Latest HRRR, is even further west, less rain for city... 3" on the ground for most south of Rockland by 6am, 1-2 up to ulster and still snowing hard over city/long island, Mod/light snow for everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Cobb Method Summary: NAM--3" GFS--just a mix, no accumulations for LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Euro wxbell snowfall NYC...5" JFK....6" FRG...7" ISP.....7" Babylon Jackpot ...8" Funny how Eurowx website has totally different Snowfall totals for 12z Euro when viewing the texted data NYC is 2.5" KJFK is 1.5" FRG is 3.4" on a 4:1 ratio ISP is 2.3 on a 3:1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 RAPS, heavy/ moderate snow all the from city/Long Island, through LHV at 5am... If this plays out a lot of people will be off guard for morning commute, especially up here where not a peep of this has been mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Upton seems to think 6 only if it shifts west. I'm thing 2-4" of paste for central Suffolk county. East of Ridge MAY SEE A BIT MORE. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER...AND DEEPER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALSO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND HOW HEAVY THE PRECIPITATION IS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE A WET ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF NYC...ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A FARTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW LONDON CONNECTICUT. WITH THE COLD AIR SLOWER TO MOVE IN HAVE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WEST AND NEAR 3 INCHES FAR EASTERN AREAS...EXTREME EASTERN NEW LONDON...AND MONTAUK POINT. ANY FARTHER SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD RESULT IN FAR EASTERN REGIONS APPROACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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