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February 8-12 2016 Cold and Possibly Snowy


tnweathernut

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John is very right here. Mountain causes a semi steady band or streamer to set up downstream as winds wrap around the said mountain. Little more to the mechanics, but it is good for snow.

I've seen in the past with enough moisture and the right flow that a band will set up from Cross Mountain in Southern Campbell and Northern Anderson and stretch into parts of Northern Knox. Cross Mountain is almost 4000 feet, it's the highest elevation on the Plateau and is easily the snowiest area outside of the Smokies/Far Eastern Mountain areas in Tennessee. It averages around 48 inches of snow a year and picked up 24 inches in the two storms last month.

 

Still looks like lots of PVA and even a short-wave or two. Maybe Kingsport does OK. Good luck!

So true.  If this is a purely northwest flow event...could be clouds w/ a few snow showers.  If actual pieces of energy accompany the northwest flow, we could see more than our usual northwest flow dusting.  In 1985, we did very well(on albeit frigid air) w/ pieces of energy rotating in but the moisture bands that stream off the Great Lakes almost always misses us since we don't have enough lift on this side of the Valley.  Rain shadow city.  Though one time in HS a piece rotated through and we ad 3" in two hours.  Really, very much like being in the lee of the Apps in North Carolina.

 

Little change in my overall thinking, but slightly raised snow with all the PVA and cyclonic flow upstairs. PVA is positive vorticity advection at 500 mb. 

Looks like a good time on the Plateau and Mountains, and perhaps favored areas the far upper end of the Valley. JC may do OK but this is tricky for Kingsport. Virginia and NC Mountains will do great. Should be a moist fetch at times with lots of PVA and cyclonic curvature upstairs. For the higher elevations this is Making Northwest Flow Snow Great Again!

 

I think around an inch at Nashville and Knoxville, perhaps more in the band John mentions northern Knox; dusting to half inch Chatty, 2 inches Signal Mountain; 1-2 MRX and 2-4 TRI; 2-5 inches Upper Plateau, locally 6+; and 6-12 inch hammer Mountains, esp higher elevations.

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John is very right here. Mountain causes a semi steady band to set up downstream as winds wrap around the said mountain. Little more to the mechanics, but it is good for snow.

Still looks like lots of PVA and even a short-wave or two. Maybe Kingsport does OK. Good luck!

Little change in my overall thinking, but slightly raised snow with all the PVA and cyclonic flow upstairs. PVA is positive vorticity advection at 500 mb.

You think we could see around 2 inches in the Halls/North Knoxville area?

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1044 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED COMPLETELY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH
CLOUDS FILLING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VERY FEW ECHOES ARE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR STILL, BUT WE ARE RECEIVING SCATTERED REPORTS
OF FLURRIES, SLEET, WINTRY MIX, ETC. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 40`S MOST AREAS, THE FREEZING LEVEL
IS NOT VERY HIGH, AND LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE DO
LEAVE SOME ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EVEN THOUGH WE WON`T
BEGIN ACCUMULATING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS, THERE`S NO REASON TO
EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX WON`T CONTINUE, AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
MID STATE. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM NOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

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Initial front now interacting with the gulf?  Look at the blossoming precip southern GA and panhandle of FL.  Wonder as the moisture transports into our great lakes low if that ultimately has any round about effect on qpf coming around the low.

 

Anyone with thoughts?  Dont recall really seeing an event like this that does that with the gulf and atlantic especially considering models showed the low dropping into VA from the Great Lakes.

post-11228-0-85982600-1454964028_thumb.g

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Just checked Madisonville KY airport under the band reporting 1/2 mile vis and SN.  That band appears to be quite a bit more intense.

 

Might explain OHX decision to add those additional counties.[/quote

Visibility was under 1/4 Mile here during the heavy s.shower that went through earlier. Also, strong winds gusting to about 30 mph.

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Had a big snow burst about 30 minutes ago here. Sky was very dark before hand; I can definitely see how these could produce some thundersnow as the clouds looked like storm clouds. Got really windy and ripped hard for about 5 minutes. Got the ground white but alas it has melted. However, it did manage to drive the temp here down. Was at 44 and now at 37.

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There must be at least some dry air around the area because very little, if any precip is reaching the ground around here. It's mostly virga. Have to hope that the column can get saturated so that moisture can actually make it to the ground. It may be that the warm up today has really hurt the temp/dp spread. Let's hope the temps continue to drop, and the moisture cooperates.

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There must be at least some dry air around the area because very little, if any precip is reaching the ground around here. It's mostly virga. Have to hope that the column can get saturated so that moisture can actually make it to the ground. It may be that the warm up today has really hurt the temp/dp spread. Let's hope the temps continue to drop, and the moisture cooperates.

I don't think it has much choice but to go down with the sun getting ready to set.

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MRX says in their AFD they are scaling back on totals. Having a hard time with their mobile site or would post it here. Meanwhile, here's David Aldrich's predictions from Facebook:815fc0c5a5eef4bd9eae2af02dd3a1d3.jpg

Sent from my XT1055 using Tapatalk

They mainly scaled back on the totals for the Mountains and the adjacent foothills. They lowered the 6-12 in the highest peaks to 5-10. They lowered the 3-6 in areas like Gatlinburg to 1-4. They didn't make any changes to the snowfall amounts in the valley.

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