Runman292 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Starting to see some darker clouds in the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 John is very right here. Mountain causes a semi steady band or streamer to set up downstream as winds wrap around the said mountain. Little more to the mechanics, but it is good for snow. I've seen in the past with enough moisture and the right flow that a band will set up from Cross Mountain in Southern Campbell and Northern Anderson and stretch into parts of Northern Knox. Cross Mountain is almost 4000 feet, it's the highest elevation on the Plateau and is easily the snowiest area outside of the Smokies/Far Eastern Mountain areas in Tennessee. It averages around 48 inches of snow a year and picked up 24 inches in the two storms last month. Still looks like lots of PVA and even a short-wave or two. Maybe Kingsport does OK. Good luck! So true. If this is a purely northwest flow event...could be clouds w/ a few snow showers. If actual pieces of energy accompany the northwest flow, we could see more than our usual northwest flow dusting. In 1985, we did very well(on albeit frigid air) w/ pieces of energy rotating in but the moisture bands that stream off the Great Lakes almost always misses us since we don't have enough lift on this side of the Valley. Rain shadow city. Though one time in HS a piece rotated through and we ad 3" in two hours. Really, very much like being in the lee of the Apps in North Carolina. Little change in my overall thinking, but slightly raised snow with all the PVA and cyclonic flow upstairs. PVA is positive vorticity advection at 500 mb. Looks like a good time on the Plateau and Mountains, and perhaps favored areas the far upper end of the Valley. JC may do OK but this is tricky for Kingsport. Virginia and NC Mountains will do great. Should be a moist fetch at times with lots of PVA and cyclonic curvature upstairs. For the higher elevations this is Making Northwest Flow Snow Great Again! I think around an inch at Nashville and Knoxville, perhaps more in the band John mentions northern Knox; dusting to half inch Chatty, 2 inches Signal Mountain; 1-2 MRX and 2-4 TRI; 2-5 inches Upper Plateau, locally 6+; and 6-12 inch hammer Mountains, esp higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 John is very right here. Mountain causes a semi steady band to set up downstream as winds wrap around the said mountain. Little more to the mechanics, but it is good for snow. Still looks like lots of PVA and even a short-wave or two. Maybe Kingsport does OK. Good luck! Little change in my overall thinking, but slightly raised snow with all the PVA and cyclonic flow upstairs. PVA is positive vorticity advection at 500 mb. You think we could see around 2 inches in the Halls/North Knoxville area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wonder what time the valley switches over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN1044 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016 .UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED COMPLETELY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITHCLOUDS FILLING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VERY FEW ECHOES ARESHOWING UP ON RADAR STILL, BUT WE ARE RECEIVING SCATTERED REPORTSOF FLURRIES, SLEET, WINTRY MIX, ETC. EVEN THOUGH SURFACETEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 40`S MOST AREAS, THE FREEZING LEVELIS NOT VERY HIGH, AND LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE DOLEAVE SOME ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EVEN THOUGH WE WON`TBEGIN ACCUMULATING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS, THERE`S NO REASON TOEXPECT THE WINTRY MIX WON`T CONTINUE, AND WILL LIKELY INCREASEINTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THEMID STATE. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THEINCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM NOW THROUGH THEREMAINDER OF THE DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 You think we could see around 2 inches in the Halls/North Knoxville area? We try to refrain from the IMBY questions....Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Most of the radar returns weaken or dissipate as the head eastward into the valley. Nothing has fallen here yet except a few sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 OHX just added Sumner, Macon, Trousdale and Smith Counties to their WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Nashville is looking good currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Nashville is looking good currently. Looks like a nice band rapidly coming SE out of KY toward Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Clarksville Airport's live obs -sn 2 mile vis, 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Looks like a nice band rapidly coming SE out of KY toward Nashville. Nothing much but a few flakes here now and then,hope that don't fizzle out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Nothing much but a few flakes here now and then,hope that don't fizzle out Just checked Madisonville KY airport under the band reporting 1/2 mile vis and SN. That band appears to be quite a bit more intense. Might explain OHX decision to add those additional counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Initial front now interacting with the gulf? Look at the blossoming precip southern GA and panhandle of FL. Wonder as the moisture transports into our great lakes low if that ultimately has any round about effect on qpf coming around the low. Anyone with thoughts? Dont recall really seeing an event like this that does that with the gulf and atlantic especially considering models showed the low dropping into VA from the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Mostly rain east of Kingsport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Just checked Madisonville KY airport under the band reporting 1/2 mile vis and SN. That band appears to be quite a bit more intense. Might explain OHX decision to add those additional counties.[/quote Visibility was under 1/4 Mile here during the heavy s.shower that went through earlier. Also, strong winds gusting to about 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Radar scope has heavy snow falling and nothing is hitting the ground in Bloomingdale Normally Radarscope is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Had a big snow burst about 30 minutes ago here. Sky was very dark before hand; I can definitely see how these could produce some thundersnow as the clouds looked like storm clouds. Got really windy and ripped hard for about 5 minutes. Got the ground white but alas it has melted. However, it did manage to drive the temp here down. Was at 44 and now at 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Some of the north Nashville traffic cams are getting interesting. Radar is looking good, might be a wild rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 We had one good shower but it was mixed,besides that just some flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 There must be at least some dry air around the area because very little, if any precip is reaching the ground around here. It's mostly virga. Have to hope that the column can get saturated so that moisture can actually make it to the ground. It may be that the warm up today has really hurt the temp/dp spread. Let's hope the temps continue to drop, and the moisture cooperates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 There must be at least some dry air around the area because very little, if any precip is reaching the ground around here. It's mostly virga. Have to hope that the column can get saturated so that moisture can actually make it to the ground. It may be that the warm up today has really hurt the temp/dp spread. Let's hope the temps continue to drop, and the moisture cooperates. I don't think it has much choice but to go down with the sun getting ready to set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 MRX says in their AFD they are scaling back on totals. Having a hard time with their mobile site or would post it here. Meanwhile, here's David Aldrich's predictions from Facebook: Sent from my XT1055 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 MRX says in their AFD they are scaling back on totals. Having a hard time with their mobile site or would post it here. Meanwhile, here's David Aldrich's predictions from Facebook: Sent from my XT1055 using Tapatalk They mainly scaled back on the totals for the Mountains and the adjacent foothills. They lowered the 6-12 in the highest peaks to 5-10. They lowered the 3-6 in areas like Gatlinburg to 1-4. They didn't make any changes to the snowfall amounts in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Seeing some flakes now. Not many, but it's getting a lot colder. Temp is 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Got some flurries here with a temp of 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Got a quick inch I think. I didn't measure so it's not exact. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Very nice Olhausen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I measured a little over an inch so far. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Great pics, looks like the models showing 1-2 inches for that area look to be spot on, if not underdone, as there appears to be decent returns upstream still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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