Runman292 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Everything about this screams snow as the p-type. Especially with steep lapse rates and heavy precip. There's simply no way so much upper level cold won't transfer down through the column under heavy rates. I've gotten 8 inches of snow at 36 degrees. I've seen heavy snow falling at 42 with good upper level support. And yet, MRX and the local news stations are on the "Mostly Rain for the Valley on Monday" bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Even more remarkable... Snow even if mixed in the valley switching to rain during the day with the upper levels getting even colder every hour during the day and yet no forecast taking into consideration forcing, but yet mentioning convection... Huh... Just such an odd scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This will be one to review about 24 hours from now...see if the liquid or frozen p-type wins the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 At 1pm tomorrow afternoon the 700mb are at -14 to -16 which is perfect for snow growth. The 850s are -4 to -6 c. The 925 (2500 feet) temps are 32 to 35 degrees west to east, the surface is around 38. I guess the snow may have time to melt if it's not falling heavily, but I'd think it'd make it to the surface if rates are good. I would think it will also cool the column sufficiently that it shouldn't be 15+ degrees cooler at 5000 feet than it is at 2500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Think the reflective map is looking more GFS on the HRRR,but we are looking at 15hrs out.Still have been scratching my head looking at the NAM,could be right though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Satellite looks pretty interesting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Too much modelcasting by NWS anymore. Particularly gfs. It's sad. Might as well copy / paste.lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Too much modelcasting by NWS anymore. Particularly gfs. It's sad. Might as well copy / paste.lol. To be fair, they're probably watching the game on their phones and sneaking beers into the office tonight. I'd probably phone it in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Unless we start getting some low level warming i'm already in trouble based on the NWS forecast... Clear sky currently, forecast for a low of 34 and sitting at 34 right now. At the rate i'm going i'm going to be in the upper 20s tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Unless we start getting some low level warming i'm already in trouble based on the NWS forecast... Clear sky currently, forecast for a low of 34 and sitting at 34 right now. At the rate i'm going i'm going to be in the upper 20s tonight. Wow, it's still 42 in Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wow, it's still 42 in Knoxville. Thats what my home weather station is reporting. Its pretty accurate. That 42 is last hour at the airport. Knoxville TN 20:53 Fair 10+ 42 23 47 SW 7 NA 29.95 Here are local wx stations near me currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 In fact the airport is reporting Sunny and 41 currently as an obs... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 occluded fronts suck,always suck warm air into them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The HRRR looks putrid with the front wave in the morning and early afternoon. Hardly anything falls. Really was hoping to pick up on that action before the upslope kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 To be fair, they're probably watching the game on their phones and sneaking beers into the office tonight. I'd probably phone it in as well. Lol.yeah, probably was the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 How are the models looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Looks like the whole valley may get in on the action. ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK....A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWESTTODAY...AND BRING WITH IT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW.LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING... BEFORETRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN THEVALLEY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVERTHE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THESUBFREEZING AIR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTEDTO CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ONCE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOWFREEZING TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THEVALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODERATETO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON ACROSS THE EASTTENNESSEE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS.NCZ060-061-TNZ102-081715-/O.EXT.KMRX.WW.Y.0005.160208T1200Z-160211T0000Z/CHEROKEE-CLAY-EAST POLK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...DUCKTOWN409 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNINGTO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...* EVENT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ANDBRING WITH IT COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SNOW. LIGHTSNOW COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UPDURING THE DAY SWITCHING PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN. COLD AIRTHEN RETURNS TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATIONTHAT FALLS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE SNOW. DURING THEEVENT PLACES COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THAT PERIODOF TIME...WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG THEHIGH TERRAIN.* TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THENMORE SNOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.* IMPACTS...THE SNOW COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AREEXPECTED OR OCCURRING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BELIGHT. DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYSAND SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITEDVISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIMETO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I am surprised that the temp is 40 at the airport and 35 in Oak Ridge. Did not go down very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 From MRX Facebook page: Sent from my XT1055 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN444 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY THRU WED NIGHT) OF WHAT WOULD SEEM TO BE A STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST AT THIS TIMEYESTERDAY...WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS FIGURED IN AS 10Z COMESAND GOES...AND WITH THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE WX PATTERN TODAY...JUST GOT A LOT MORE COMPLICATED. THUS...INTEGRATING SHORT TERM WXTRENDS IN WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE SUITE OF 00ZMODELS...WOULD CONSIDER THIS SHORT RANGE FORECAST TO BE ONE OF THEGREAT MODEL COMPROMISE FORECASTS OF RECENT NOTE. BELIEVE THAT THEREWILL BE A BREAK FROM THE LIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS NEPORTIONS OF THE MID STATE BY 12Z...WITH SKIES CLRING ACROSS ENTIREMID STATE UNTIL THE MID MORNING HRS. EXPECTING A RETURN TO INCREASINGCLOUDINESS W TO E AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTOMID STATE REGION AND DEEPEN. QUANDARIES ABOUND AS SHORT RANGE MODELSDEPICTING A MUCH LATER TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ANDTHEN ALL SNOW COMPARED TO THE STANDARD SUITE OF 00Z MODELS...ANDALSO THROW IN A RANGE OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WHEN COMPARING MODELBUFKIT SOUNDINGS PROFILES...ALONG WITH THOSE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWINGSOME GOOD CAPE VALUES TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED THUNDER SNOWPOTENTIALLY AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY...WHICH COULDREALLY THROW A "WRENCH" INTO THE FORECAST PROCESS...BUT AN ENHANCEDCONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS THERE AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ALSO...LET US THROW IN ACTUAL TIMING OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATINGAROUND BASE OF THIS DEEPENING BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL PLAYA KEY ROLE IN INITIATING SNOW SHWR TIMING TOO. THUS...WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...COMPROMISED HERE...FOCUSING IN ONCURRENT TRENDS...AND EXPECTING HIGHS TODAY TO BE REACHED BY 15Z...WITHINTRODUCING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHWRS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE FROM THEMID MORNING TO NOON TIME HR TODAY. THEN GOING WITH A SLOW TRANSITIONE TO W FROM A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON HRS.DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION THIS AFTERNOONEXPECTED AS NOT AS QUICK OF A CHANGE TO SNOW AS EARLY ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL KEEP THE INITIAL HOUR OF 18Z CONTINUING FOR THE WINTER WXADVISORY FOR THE PLATEAU COUNTIES AS AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW TRANSITIONIS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME. LIKELY LIGHT SNOW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENINGPER AN ENHANCED WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSSTHE REGION...WITH LIKELY LIGHT SNOW SHWRS CONTINUING ACROSS ERN PORTIONSOF THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE SHIFTSEWD. ANTICIPATING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO TRANSVERSEMID STATE ON TUE MORNING PROVIDING LIKELY LIGHT SNOW SHWRS...WITHPOTENTIAL OF SNOWFALL DECREASING W TO E AS DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE. ASTHIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH BUILDINGENHANCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS WRN U.S...EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHTSNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION WITH FLURRIES EXPECTEDDURING MORNING HRS ON WED HERE TOO. BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES AREEXPECTED ACROSS MID STATE AS WED INTO WED NIGHT PROGRESS...WITH DRYCONDITIONS AND PTCDLY SKIES. AS FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...FROM THIS AFTERNOON THRU TUE NIGHT...KEEPING IN MIND THAT THIS IS ON WHOLE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AND IT WILLTAKE TIME TO REACH THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION VALUES...FROM AROUNDONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN RIVER VALLEY...TOAROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH NASHVILLE METRO AREA/I-65 CORRIDOR...UPTO ONE INCH JUST W OF PLATEAU. ACROSS ADVISORY AREA...ONE TOTWO INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING THREE INCHESACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION...MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL REFRESHBOTH WSW AND SPS PRODUCTS. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND ALSO...AND WITHACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE INTO TUE NIGHT PLATEAU...WILL EXTENDEDWSW PRODUCT UNTIL 12Z TUE FOR THIS REGION. SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE WX TYPE...BECAUSE...BEHIND A SFC FRONTALPASSAGE EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY...A COLD CANADIAN BASEDSFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE MID STATE`S WX.LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S...UPPER TEENS PLATEAU...SOME 10DEGREES OR SO BELOW SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BEBELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE...SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREESBELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...IN THE LOW 30S...MID TO UPPER 20SNRN HIGHLAND RIM AND PLATEAU. LOWS TUE NIGHT WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONCOVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES...GENERALLYSPANNING THE LOW TO MID TEENS. HIGHS ON WED...AS SFC RIDGING INFLUENCESBECOME MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WILL GENERALLY SPAN THE 20S...20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WED NIGHT WILLCONTINUE THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD TREND...MAINLY IN THE MID TEENS...LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS PLATEAU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Clouds are finally building in here.The RAP has some cape over 100+ this afternoon here and a little KI @16 so it's showing some convection.Hopefully we get a good burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Clouds are finally building in here.The RAP has some cape over 100+ this afternoon here and a little KI @16 so it's showing some convection.Hopefully we get a good burst. Yeah, after a mostly clear morning here in North Knoxville, some clouds are starting to appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Yeah, after a mostly clear morning here in North Knoxville, some clouds are starting to appear. Same here I had more hope for the initial front this morning but obviously didn't materialize. Good upstream moisture compared to most northern stream events working SE in our direction. Also studying these usually if the returns are as far west as Eastern Kansas and Eastern Nebraska we do better in the lower elevations than when the western extent of precip is central Iowa and Missouri. Usually the latter of the 2 scenarios is more common. This case radar returns are pretty good out across Eastern Kansas and Nebraska thats good for us tonight into the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Hopefully, since many of us are stuck with the sun being out this morning, it will help to increase instability later as the cold air moves in upstairs. Some pretty large cumulus are forming here, so we already have some updrafts developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Hopefully, since many of us are stuck with the sun being out this morning, it will help to increase instability later as the cold air moves in upstairs. Some pretty large cumulus are forming here, so we already have some updrafts forming. The instability might give us an isolated thunderstorm or 2 this afternoon according to the SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The instability might give us an isolated thunderstorm or 2 this afternoon according to the SPC. Yes, and any that develop will bring the cold air in the upper levels down in a big hurry if you get under one. I wouldn't be surprised to see small hail or graupel fall in the stronger storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Snowing here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 fast as i said that it stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 fast as i said that it stopped Impressive though considering very little returns around your area at the moment. Though upstream looks good for you very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wow, it's gone from mostly clear to mostly cloudy in a 1-2 hour span in Halls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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