Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

Recommended Posts

Time to punt it. This system will not do anything along the coast or inland. This was a phantom storm like many on models in the LR. I expect this thread to be closed soon. Trends are further east and less precipitation. Sigh. We will get a storm along the coast to produce snow next ice age. Hopefully another storm pops up for the people on this board to track. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Time to punt it. This system will not do anything along the coast or inland. This was a phantom storm like many on models in the LR. I expect this thread to be closed soon. Trends are further east and less precipitation. Sigh. We will get a storm along the coast to produce snow next ice age. Hopefully another storm pops up for the people on this board to track. 

 

Wait, what?  Coastal areas are still in play...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quick glance over the various 500mb vort maps from the 12z simulations, that piece of energy from AR to IA to IL is really screwing this up. We either need to see that trend faster and allow more separation, or become more involved with the southern wave. I think the Canadian first picked this up a couple days ago.

 

Good catch.

 

Time to punt it. This system will not do anything along the coast or inland. This was a phantom storm like many on models in the LR. I expect this thread to be closed soon. Trends are further east and less precipitation. Sigh. We will get a storm along the coast to produce snow next ice age. Hopefully another storm pops up for the people on this board to track. 

 

Dude, this is setting up quite well for you.  You're right on the coast, so a wound up monster will probably sent it too close to the coast and rain on you.  You might need to go inland a little bit, though, as the immediate coast may end up too warm.  For example, the 12z GGEM has a decent snowstorm (relatively) for areas NW of Myrtle Beach, though MYR itself looks like mostly rain.

 

zsl5id.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quick glance over the various 500mb vort maps from the 12z simulations, that piece of energy from AR to IA to IL is really screwing this up. We either need to see that trend faster and allow more separation, or become more involved with the southern wave. I think the Canadian first picked this up a couple days ago.

Rgem has that piece quickly absorbed into the main vortmax, which makes it look like it should pivot well post 48 hrs as it moves through.

Edit: that doesn't mean it's right, but a more westward solution is still a possibility

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If GA, SC, NC got what they wanted out of this thing, it would be too close for the coast for the main show to get them in the game.  Currently, they aren't in a bad spot to see some snowfall.  Inland, we just aren't going to get the moisture from recent modeling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is trending OTS on even the most supportive models and the temperatures are not good. It is my opinion but it will probably play out with nothing happening.

I don't think you understand the fact that if this thing cuts off 3-6 hrs before progged, then a lot more folks could see snow. That is why everyone is still talking about this. Did we not just go through this two weeks ago? Countless cliff divers 3 days out because the models trended away from a snowstorm. Only to have those same people jump back on and be all on board. Most thought snow tomorrow was a fantasy, but now it seems some on the board could even see accumulation. If you are throwing in the towel that is fine, but making a point to announce it consistently without analysis is a waste of energy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quick glance over the various 500mb vort maps from the 12z simulations, that piece of energy from AR to IA to IL is really screwing this up. We either need to see that trend faster and allow more separation, or become more involved with the southern wave. I think the Canadian first picked this up a couple days ago.

 

 

Rgem has that piece quickly absorbed into the main vortmax, which makes it look like it should pivot well post 48 hrs as it moves through.

 

Very good catch guys.  I was justifying the RGEM being overdone past 30 hr.. but this makes sense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hope y'all are right. Like usual, every local met is just saying cold rain along the coast. I trust this forum much more as far as an honest answer goes

 

A sounding from the NAM (i used it because it had a bit more moisture inland) has a location close to MYR being snow.  The only problem with the sounding is it's not amazing moisture.. but enough at hour 66-69.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...