TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Time to punt it. This system will not do anything along the coast or inland. This was a phantom storm like many on models in the LR. I expect this thread to be closed soon. Trends are further east and less precipitation. Sigh. We will get a storm along the coast to produce snow next ice age. Hopefully another storm pops up for the people on this board to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Time to punt it. This system will not do anything along the coast or inland. This was a phantom storm like many on models in the LR. I expect this thread to be closed soon. Trends are further east and less precipitation. Sigh. We will get a storm along the coast to produce snow next ice age. Hopefully another storm pops up for the people on this board to track. Wait, what? Coastal areas are still in play... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Wait, what? Coastal areas are still in play... It is trending OTS on even the most supportive models and the temperatures are not good. It is my opinion but it will probably play out with nothing happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Wait, what? Coastal areas are still in play... Right! The is going to be I95 east from Charleston MB, up into NC and along the outer banks special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Quick glance over the various 500mb vort maps from the 12z simulations, that piece of energy from AR to IA to IL is really screwing this up. We either need to see that trend faster and allow more separation, or become more involved with the southern wave. I think the Canadian first picked this up a couple days ago. Good catch. Time to punt it. This system will not do anything along the coast or inland. This was a phantom storm like many on models in the LR. I expect this thread to be closed soon. Trends are further east and less precipitation. Sigh. We will get a storm along the coast to produce snow next ice age. Hopefully another storm pops up for the people on this board to track. Dude, this is setting up quite well for you. You're right on the coast, so a wound up monster will probably sent it too close to the coast and rain on you. You might need to go inland a little bit, though, as the immediate coast may end up too warm. For example, the 12z GGEM has a decent snowstorm (relatively) for areas NW of Myrtle Beach, though MYR itself looks like mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Quick glance over the various 500mb vort maps from the 12z simulations, that piece of energy from AR to IA to IL is really screwing this up. We either need to see that trend faster and allow more separation, or become more involved with the southern wave. I think the Canadian first picked this up a couple days ago. Rgem has that piece quickly absorbed into the main vortmax, which makes it look like it should pivot well post 48 hrs as it moves through. Edit: that doesn't mean it's right, but a more westward solution is still a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 If GA, SC, NC got what they wanted out of this thing, it would be too close for the coast for the main show to get them in the game. Currently, they aren't in a bad spot to see some snowfall. Inland, we just aren't going to get the moisture from recent modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 It is trending OTS on even the most supportive models and the temperatures are not good. It is my opinion but it will probably play out with nothing happening. I don't think you understand the fact that if this thing cuts off 3-6 hrs before progged, then a lot more folks could see snow. That is why everyone is still talking about this. Did we not just go through this two weeks ago? Countless cliff divers 3 days out because the models trended away from a snowstorm. Only to have those same people jump back on and be all on board. Most thought snow tomorrow was a fantasy, but now it seems some on the board could even see accumulation. If you are throwing in the towel that is fine, but making a point to announce it consistently without analysis is a waste of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I hope y'all are right. Like usual, every local met is just saying cold rain along the coast. I trust this forum much more as far as an honest answer goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Quick glance over the various 500mb vort maps from the 12z simulations, that piece of energy from AR to IA to IL is really screwing this up. We either need to see that trend faster and allow more separation, or become more involved with the southern wave. I think the Canadian first picked this up a couple days ago. Rgem has that piece quickly absorbed into the main vortmax, which makes it look like it should pivot well post 48 hrs as it moves through. Very good catch guys. I was justifying the RGEM being overdone past 30 hr.. but this makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I hope y'all are right. Like usual, every local met is just saying cold rain along the coast. I trust this forum much more as far as an honest answer goes A sounding from the NAM (i used it because it had a bit more moisture inland) has a location close to MYR being snow. The only problem with the sounding is it's not amazing moisture.. but enough at hour 66-69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Right! The is going to be I95 east from Charleston MB, up into NC and along the outer banks special. We shall see. Hopefully you are right. Sadly I feel as if I have a good chance of being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flotownsc Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looking at these maps, I assume Florence may be the place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looking at these maps, I assume Florence may be the place to be. Here was the 12z NAM (take these maps with a grain of salt.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Here is the 12z GGEM to go with the NAM image above. I would rather have Euro/GFS showing than these two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 No Euro pbp? Bermuda is still in the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Here was the 12z NAM (take these maps with a grain of salt.) Would this be considered the Blizzard of Pawleys Island? Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 No Euro pbp? Bermuda is still in the game!Hmm 12z Euro cuts the 5H off at hr 57 over W TN? Interesting and RGEM like. Then opens back up at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Hmm 12z Euro cuts the 5H off at hr 57 over W TN? Interesting and RGEM like. I think it was doing that yesterday too, which is what made it keep the trough too positively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I think it was doing that yesterday too, which is what made it keep the trough too positively tilted.Yep, cut off again over N GA/WNC at hr 69 but trough still positive. If it were negative there it would be game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 None of the modeling has a negative tilt in time for most inland areas. I think it's time for me to let go of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Trough finally goes negative at hr 75 and pulls moisture ashore but that is too late for most of the board except coastal NC/SC. Overall though I don't think it was a terrible run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The 12z Euro is a good hit for extreme NE SC and SE NC. The jackpot area moved a bit north compared to the last run (when E SC was more so the area to be). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Any snow maps or is it just rain. Weather.com is saying 40 or so as a high here Sunday in ILM area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Any snow maps or is it just rain. Weather.com is saying 40 or so as a high here Sunday in ILM area. The Euro looks a little warm for the coast. You probably need to head inland a little ways to get a few inches. It matches pretty well with the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The Euro looks a little warm for the coast. You probably need to head inland a little ways to get a few inches. It matches pretty well with the UKMET. Figured as much. Well hopefully someone else gets some. Why did you say it was a hit for NE SC and SE NC then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Figured as much. Well hopefully someone else gets some. Why did you say it was a hit for NE SC and SE NC then? Because it is a hit for NE SC and SE NC away from the immediate coast... Areas like Tabor City, NC look potentially decent, albeit borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Any snow maps or is it just rain. Weather.com is saying 40 or so as a high here Sunday in ILM area. Please stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Please stop Stop what? Asking questions on a weather board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Figured as much. Well hopefully someone else gets some. Why did you say it was a hit for NE SC and SE NC then? 10 miles off the coast is still se nc and ne sc. Immediate coast may be too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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