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Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

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3. We haven't had a strong system that'll give the region a 32-33 degree cement layer in a long time. This will truly be driven by rates in some cases. You could argue the late February system was like this too, but with that system. It was just a 10 hour band of heavy rates really. There was a defined R/S line, no situation where it was lightly raining i Raleigh while puking snow in Fayetteville. Now this is a pretty textbook case of the gamblers fallacy, but it's all I have left :).

The January 2013 ULL was like this. 3-5" here while it rained in Mt. Airy.

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Looks to get precip back to around CAE and RDU at one point, based on the terrible Meteociel.fr maps.

 

Too positive.. then neutral as it gets over GA/SC/NC.. then turns negative off the coast.  Cuts off at h5 way out there.  Really need it to go negative at georgia at the furthest east... maybe even a bit sooner.

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And now it looks like we are starting to lose the NAVGEM. Less precip, further out.. bad tilt too late. Eastern NC might fare okay... but the trend is not the friend.

Yeah, good hit for E NC, as shown, but certainly not as far west as 24 hours ago. It actually lines up pretty well with the 12z UKMET, which looks to have shifted in our favor compared to last night.

12z UKMET:

2mpn0ac.gif

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Yeah, good hit for E NC, as shown, but certainly not as far west as 24 hours ago.

Quick glance over the various 500mb vort maps from the 12z simulations, that piece of energy from AR to IA to IL is really screwing this up. We either need to see that trend faster and allow more separation, or become more involved with the southern wave. I think the Canadian first picked this up a couple days ago.

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