burrel2 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks to me like it is too warm for snow on the NAM. I do not see anyone getting smoked with anything other than our friend cold rain. Anyone care to elaborate? why don't you take a look at the sounding posted above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 why don't you take a look at the sounding posted above? I was looking at air temperature. What does the sounding show (I am not a meteorologist)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=12&fhour=72¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks like I get underneath a dusting southwest of Wilmington. If even that. Wonder why it snows in MB and Charleston but not much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Next up 12z GFS. Place your bets folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Next up 12z GFS. Place your bets folks. More snow further inland. West of 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Next up 12z GFS. Place your bets folks. NW trend, but still not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 NW trend, but still not there yet. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Next up 12z GFS. Place your bets folks. NW trend...but slightly...yet continuing to trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 NW trend...but slightly...yet continuing to trend +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 3. We haven't had a strong system that'll give the region a 32-33 degree cement layer in a long time. This will truly be driven by rates in some cases. You could argue the late February system was like this too, but with that system. It was just a 10 hour band of heavy rates really. There was a defined R/S line, no situation where it was lightly raining i Raleigh while puking snow in Fayetteville. Now this is a pretty textbook case of the gamblers fallacy, but it's all I have left . The January 2013 ULL was like this. 3-5" here while it rained in Mt. Airy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z GFS sweeps the storm out to sea quickly and never goes neg tilt until it is offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 gfs wide again. still not giving up on this one yet. when i lived in chas there were several situations where the models painted snow on the coast and dry inland only to tick nw as the event unfolded leaving us with a cold rain while nc got snow. worth watching imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks like 12z GFS is even less moisture than 00z on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Ugly....way east. Drizzle along the coast. That's all. Typical GFS. Won't come back until 12z tomorrow (maybe first signals 0z tonight). Winner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm more interested in todays euro run, I think if it holds then its only a matter of time before the gfs catches up, maybe tonight... If the euro is much less amped and goes east then its a win for the gfs... But, I'm optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Canadian could be better. Hard to tell on these Stormvista maps. Looks like more precip further inland and colder at the surface for areas. Edit: not too terribly different from the 00z run based on surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 48hr rgem looks like it's gonna go beg tilt with our trough around the Mississippi river... Hopefully it's on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 48hr rgem looks like it's gonna go beg tilt with our trough around the Mississippi river... Hopefully it's on to something Thats good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Canadian could be better. Hard to tell on these Stormvista maps. Looks like more precip further inland and colder at the surface for areas. Edit: not too terribly different from the 00z run based on surface. Looks to get precip back to around CAE and RDU at one point, based on the terrible Meteociel.fr maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks to get precip back to around CAE and RDU at one point, based on the terrible Meteociel.fr maps. Too positive.. then neutral as it gets over GA/SC/NC.. then turns negative off the coast. Cuts off at h5 way out there. Really need it to go negative at georgia at the furthest east... maybe even a bit sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Navgem and La France are key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 48hr rgem looks like it's gonna go beg tilt with our trough around the Mississippi river... Hopefully it's on to something That is very interesting that the short range models are picking up on a cutoff much sooner compared to the mid range models. There are some strong dynamic at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks like we have lost the JMA. Develops out to sea from these crappy maps.. in fact.. neutral tilt too late. Maybe NC/SC coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Seasonal trend. How many 500mb features this winter havr cut off a bit earlier than progged. I can think of several just recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Seasonal trend. How many 500mb features this winter havr cut off a bit earlier than progged. I can think of several just recently. Hope your feeling better. Maybe we can get a 4 to 8 hour earlier trend and mother nature sends you some white powder to aid in your recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Seasonal trend. How many 500mb features this winter havr cut off a bit earlier than progged. I can think of several just recently. This, and therein lies the adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 And now it looks like we are starting to lose the NAVGEM. Less precip, further out.. bad tilt too late. Eastern NC might fare okay... but the trend is not the friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 And now it looks like we are starting to lose the NAVGEM. Less precip, further out.. bad tilt too late. Eastern NC might fare okay... but the trend is not the friend. Yeah, good hit for E NC, as shown, but certainly not as far west as 24 hours ago. It actually lines up pretty well with the 12z UKMET, which looks to have shifted in our favor compared to last night. 12z UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yeah, good hit for E NC, as shown, but certainly not as far west as 24 hours ago. Quick glance over the various 500mb vort maps from the 12z simulations, that piece of energy from AR to IA to IL is really screwing this up. We either need to see that trend faster and allow more separation, or become more involved with the southern wave. I think the Canadian first picked this up a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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