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Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

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Where is the best energy located for explosive development?  Is the shortwave responsible for spinning up the system well sampled right now?  How about the kicker behind it?

 

Stop. I'm not as well-versed in model studying like a lot of folks on here are, and I've never claimed to be. That's why I'm here. If I knew everything, I'd have my own website and get paid big bucks to forecast for major energy companies.

 

I do know that we've had a consistent trend in the WRONG direction. Could it be wrong by a hundred miles? SURE. Is the energy properly sampled? NO. But it will be at 12z/0z.

 

I know when we were three days out from the 1/22 system, we KNEW there was going to be a storm and we KNEW precip would fall in the areas it ended up falling. With this system, we're not even getting green on the models where folks want snow.

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The thing the models hard having hard time with is the S/Ws There are two main players that just came ashore. The southern stream is starting to dig but the main player is how the northern stream. This is really going to be the main player. How much NS energy dives into the southern stream. There is alot of vorticies in the NS. In order to get the UL to close and tilt neg need pretty much a full phase with NS . The models just arent showing alot of engery flowing into the southern stream.  The main NS player is highlighted. It could be DOA or Just a timing issue on the models?

 

 

 

 

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I know when we were three days out from the 1/22 system, we KNEW there was going to be a storm and we KNEW precip would fall in the areas it ended up falling. With this system, we're not even getting green on the models where folks want snow.

People were jumping like flees 3 days before that event. This is an entirely different setup and a quick bomb out on the coast could change the entire trajectory. You could very well be correct in your thinking, but it isn't time to throw in the towel just yet.

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Stop. I'm not as well-versed in model studying like a lot of folks on here are, and I've never claimed to be. That's why I'm here. If I knew everything, I'd have my own website and get paid big bucks to forecast for major energy companies.

 

I do know that we've had a consistent trend in the WRONG direction. Could it be wrong by a hundred miles? SURE. Is the energy properly sampled? NO. But it will be at 12z/0z.

 

I know when we were three days out from the 1/22 system, we KNEW there was going to be a storm and we KNEW precip would fall in the areas it ended up falling. With this system, we're not even getting green on the models where folks want snow.

 

I'm not trying to be smart.  Seriously, I'm throwing these questions out there to illustrate that there is uncertainty here.  It's not like I necessarily know all of the answers either.  With the last storm, there was NO WAY we weren't going to get precipitation.  The trends in the track/development of the storm mattered as to the eventual type of precipitation that fell.

 

I'm not seriously convinced that we're going to get a big snowstorm out of this, but how many times do we have to see the models not correctly model the location, track, and strength of a storm 4 or more days out, especially in such a complex pattern, before we realize that at this lead, there are plenty of valid scenarios still on the table.

 

My gut instinct is that this will end up closer to the coast than currently shown.  How far?  What does it mean for Raleigh?  Who knows.

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Trough goes neg tilt at hr 60 on the 12z NAM as it reaches WNC. That should begin to pull moisture ashore. Solid trend here.

5H struggled to capture the 850mb low and thus doesn't pull precip as far into coast. Wow the way that was looking I thought someone was going to get hammered but it is almost like there is a wall setup on the coastline.
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Rapid moistening at H7 @ 60 off of Jax Fl.. H7 low over SAV. @ 66.

Taken literal Snow for Waycross along 95 up in SC to Wilmington.

Here's the biggie. In Jan 2000 you watch the sat loop you had a big pivot that delivered the goods. This run of the nam as trough goes negative you never get a pivot. That would throw the moisture back inland. I'm just reading pbp and really need to see a loop, but you need a strong pivot to get the moisture back inland after the phase and neg tilt of the trough

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A few reasons why I'm optimistic with this set up:

The models have been consistent about one thing: an absolutely silly amount of energy for the cut off to form. We aren't going to have the "ehh energy is too strung out" problem here.

Another point- Death. Taxes. NW trend. It's a given with every storm, people on the R/S line for past storms can attest. Don't know why it happens meteorologically, but if I were to take a guess, so many factors have to be "right" for a shortwave to dig so deep", that if any one of these factors was modeled incorrectly, the most likely error would be bringing the energy too far south, thus a NW trend. That has no peer-reviewed backing so take that with a grain of salt.

3. We haven't had a strong system that'll give the region a 32-33 degree cement layer in a long time. This will truly be driven by rates in some cases. You could argue the late February system was like this too, but with that system. It was just a 10 hour band of heavy rates really. There was a defined R/S line, no situation where it was lightly raining i Raleigh while puking snow in Fayetteville. Now this is a pretty textbook case of the gamblers fallacy, but it's all I have left :).

It was around this timeframe a few weeks ago when people were punting the blizzard around these parts. I wouldn't be so pessimistic just yet.

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