superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The 00z NAVGEM won't back down! Another crushjob for central NC/SC! Four runs in a row! Hahaha! That's just one glory panel. The next frame is a little juicier, actually. After destroying us in NC/SC, it goes on to crush the I-95 corridor all the way to Boston again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The 00z NAVGEM won't back down! Another crushjob for central NC/SC! Four runs in a row! Hahaha! That's just one glory panel. After destroying us in NC/SC, it goes on to crush the I-95 corridor all the way to Boston again. You gotta give it some credit for being the most consistent model by far for this storm. It'd be hilarious if it pulled a coup, but sadly, I doubt that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Through 72, Euro is like 12z.. maybe a tiny bit faster. By 84, a bit better. but not gonna work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 euro is identical to the 12z, big ol' monster 983 south east of ILM at hour 96 maybe slightly west of the 12z run? Hard to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Interesting that the Euro held steady. Might not be time to write this one off quite yet. Plus, we still have the J/N Rule in effect, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 euro is identical to the 12z, big ol' monster 983 south east of ILM at hour 96 maybe slightly east of the 12z run? Hard to tell The consistency leads me to believe after other guidance, that this thing is going to be wasted for most. Maybe the coast can get something. Just too far off the coast to get many in play. Edit. Part of coastal SC (county or two inland too) might do okay per snowfall maps. GEFS wasn't very impressive for the Columbia area with precip... almost all members extremely light or nothing. Within 90 hours or so, you'd expect to see the GEFS members juicier if a threat was credible for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Lookout's French model is onboard, haha. It goes to 981 mb just off of Morehead City on the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The GGEM is too far east, as well, aside from maybe the immediate coastal regions (congrats, Wilmington?... though temperatures are marginal). Maybe the NAVGEM will save us. We want them too far east in this time frame, this isn't the MA or NE where storms can be modeled to hit for 5 days in a row and actually hit we need them wide right until 36 hrs out...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z runs will be telling as the energy associated with this system is sampled better this morning. Not optimistic about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Nam and GFS is DOA and out to sea. GFS has a little qpf over extreme eastern sections. If the upper level energy could come in better well defined and neg tilt by the time it gets near the coast. With the tight baroclinc zone along the coast. This could truly be a bomb waiting to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 By 12z tomorrow, all you silly sallies will be happy again. The French know a thing or two about models. Viva la France! 'Sall I'm sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 By 12z tomorrow, all you silly sallies will be happy again. The French know a thing or two about models. Viva la France! 'Sall I'm sayin. I agree, but I'm not confident in it being anything big around Raleigh and points west. This could all change, but the only model I've seen support this idea is the NAVGEM, which isn't the best of models. Speaking of which, how does the 06z NAVGEM look? If it holds firm through 12z today, and the other models continue to flounder around (or, even better, trend NW), then I'll start to suspect it may be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 NAVGEM will lead the way on this one. Fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Just stop lol. The NAVGEM isn't leading anything, listen to yourselves. This one's D.O.A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Just stop lol. The NAVGEM isn't leading anything, listen to yourselves. This one's D.O.A. My bad I thought this was banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Just stop lol. The NAVGEM isn't leading anything, listen to yourselves. This one's D.O.A. Then don't bother coming on this thread again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I thought the EPS low clusters look pretty good. Tight cluster of deep lows 50-75 miles west of the mean. You can see them here on Matthew East's morning video: If anyone else with access cares to compare the overnight EPS run to the 12z from yesterday, I'm all ears! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 We've lost optimistic Brick. , he caved like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I caved too early on the little system on January 17th. It completely disappeared (went to Cuba) and came back. All of the models at least have a system forming. On the earlier system, I couldn't figure out how to get a NW trend with NO SYSTEM. It came back anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 We've lost optimistic Brick. , he caved like the GFS Nope. I still think this has time to trend back NW. All we are missing is the path. The storm is going to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Just stop lol. The NAVGEM isn't leading anything, listen to yourselves. This one's D.O.A. Most models still show some snowfall for E NC and the coast of SC. Just because it doesn't concern your backyard, doesn't mean people in the SE shouldn't track its progression. Whats with the cynical attitude all of the sudden man? If this thing trends back 100 miles NW then half the board will be in play. I think it is worthy of discussion even if your crystal ball says it is "DOA". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Most models still show some snowfall for E NC and the coast of SC. Just because it doesn't concern your backyard, doesn't mean people in the SE shouldn't track its progression. Whats with the cynical attitude all of the sudden man? If this thing trends back 100 miles NW then half the board will be in play. I think it is worthy of discussion even if your crystal ball says it is "DOA". Its right where I want it in this time frame actually.....a little late neg tilt 100 miles SE of hatteras and I get smoked.....plenty of room for that 36 hr and under NW drift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Its right where I want it in this time frame actually.....a little late neg tilt 100 miles SE of hatteras and I get smoked.....plenty of room for that 36 hr and under NW drift. I agree (we've seen this many times), but we'll need to start seeing the trend today or tonight; at least with either the GFS or Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Most models still show some snowfall for E NC and the coast of SC. Just because it doesn't concern your backyard, doesn't mean people in the SE shouldn't track its progression. Whats with the cynical attitude all of the sudden man? If this thing trends back 100 miles NW then half the board will be in play. I think it is worthy of discussion even if your crystal ball says it is "DOA". I'm not being cynical, just being realistic. The trends have NOT been in our favor and we're only 3 days out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Jonathan, you think it has a chance to go east by 100 miles? West by 100 miles? Or do the models have it right on target at 4 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm not being cynical, just being realistic. The trends have NOT been in our favor and we're only 3 days out at this point. But it is close. As stated above we do need the trends NW to show up today (maybe 0z tonight for RDU). I agree it doesn't look great but we can still track this maybe see a favorable shift. Not much else to do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Where is the best energy located for explosive development? Is the shortwave responsible for spinning up the system well sampled right now? How about the kicker behind it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 But it is close. As stated above we do need the trends NW to show up today (maybe 0z tonight for RDU). I agree it doesn't look great but we can still track this maybe see a favorable shift. No much else to do... Yeah , we are going to be in here anyway might as well have some fun. I mean that is why we all do this right??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Jonathan, you think it has a chance to go east by 100 miles? West by 100 miles? Or do the models have it right on target at 4 days out? I just think the system gets its act together too late. Yesterday at 12z, we were looking at snow possible all the way back towards C NC (RDU) and since then it has consistently TRENDED east with a late bomb. Isn't that what we look for on models? Trends? From what I'm seeing, taking the trends AND looking at it face value gives no one snow, except maybe extreme SE NC and the MYB area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Jonathan, you think it has a chance to go east by 100 miles? West by 100 miles? Or do the models have it right on target at 4 days out? Hay CR, that GEM could maybe work out for us.... little sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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